weatherwiz

I'm not sure what media is saying or what's going around social media but I hope this is being hit hard...especially since we had a few events (though last one was certainly more impressive) this season which were hyped like crazy and we're meh except locally. This one should be widespread impact IMO.

I think there is enough convective elements and mesoscale features for the higher totals to verify.

Yeah and it makes some degree of sense I think. Looks like we get a second low to pop across eastern NY, this alone would limit the northward extent of the sfc warm front. The extent of snow cover should also limit the northward extent of the sfc warm front (or at least slow it). All in all if that sfc warm front sets up and stalls across CT, there will be enhanced llvl forcing and enhanced moisture advection from the LLJ. PWAT anomalies are +5-6SD!!! The more I look into the 12z guidance the more concerned I am becoming. This one is going to be extremely ugly I think.

For wind potential where temperatures rise into the 50's and dewpoints get into the lower 50's that's where there could be a period of damaging wind gusts. I could see widespread power outages unfolding tomorrow.

Snow pack should be the least of concern with this system, IMO.

Pretty much all guidance is a widespread 2-3'' of rain across an extensive area. Some of the mesos are spitting out strips of 3-4''. Based on the likelihood that there will be convective elements, plus some orographic influences, degree of lift, I think there will be some pockets of higher totals. It's pretty wild to see how widespread the rainfall totals are on all guidance. The wind signal too is quite concerning, though very uncertain. But I think we are going to see significant flooding and not just localized.

I'm kind of surprised (though I guess I shouldn't be) this thread isn't getting more attention. Perhaps it's because we're right on the heels of this past weekend's event and everyone is exhausted, but this is going to be a very high impact storm. The flooding, particularly river and stream flooding is going to be very bad. Looking at a widespread 2-4'' of rain and I'm sure we'll see a strip of 5-7'' totals.

The trees here are still caked with snow.

yeah they'll be southerly... probably begin more southeast and then become more southerly. That line the 3km has though has me really intrigued. If something like that were to occur we probably would see widespread wind gusts 50-70 mph just ahead of that line as it moved east-northeast across the region.

In terms of wind, the sustained winds may be more impressive than the gusts. But that certainly still keeps concern for tree damage/power outages.

This is pretty interesting. Bufkit isn't all that impressive with the wind potential but I was looking at NBM and its pretty wild for some locations. Not sure what to make of it yet really. It's obviously all going to come down to mixing.

yeah I was just looking through several soundings and don't really see anything indicative of good mixing (unless of course we get convection) but it seems on the inverted side at times and saturated with awful lapse rates.

3km NAM has a nice looking low topped forced line moving through

These wind advisories are nuts lol

Power went out briefly overnight. Thank God it came back up otherwise today would be a scramble work wise. What a beautiful winter scene this morning

Not a bad forecast! Wish I hit in some aspects a bit better though in the discussion.

Even the kitty gets to enjoy

10.5” final! Very long overdue.

9.7” and still ripping!!!!! Got slammed the last few hours

Ripping here. Will go measure at 1:00. I am not sure how accurate my measurement will be though. For the first time in many years I'm in an environment where I can measure accurately, just didn't prepare right. I'll measure off table outside and then within the yard. I had 4'' when I went to bed at 1 AM and I measured around 9 AM and had around 6''. I've had to pick up at least an inch or two since.

That's right where the best llvl fronto is. Anywhere west of that, going to be really difficult to accumulate much.

Fun in the snow

snow picking back up again!

6” here about. Snow is wet too

So beautiful