weatherwiz

There are other maps to analyze besides snow maps. Anyways, here is the Euro at 120. Definite differences versus the GFs with both streams

What ends up helping everyone out too is how the entire system closes off as it is passing just to our east. Would see some a good deal of dynamic cooling in that scenario and very hefty CCB which would more than likely traverse the entire region. Essentially, if this solution were to verify I don't think I'd complain.

Nope...something I'm not going to disregard as probable or possible right now. But details aside, I think where things stand right now.

Would love the phasing to take place later obviously but it's great to finally see something involving a text book phase between the northern stream and southern stream. Not sure what room we have to get a later phasing, but certainly still far enough out to where that is possible, although I imagine we would want to start seeing that signal in the next day or two.

Saturday should be quite warm. Probably see a lot of upper 50's away from the water unless something drastic happens. I wouldn't rule out some places hitting 60-61.

Perhaps its not a coincidence winters went downhill since I gave up both

Gotcha...thanks! I had that reversed. And you can see the potential that lies with the upcoming look. Obviously whether or not we can get all the moving pieces to time together is another story, but this is why you focus on pattern first then divulge into details once you get within range.

I love the consistency regarding the blocking; both in terms of evolution and placement. I'd be hard pressed to believe there will not be multiple threats over the course of a few weeks. I know there has been a debate as how long this look holds, but I can see it hanging on the longer side. I don't mind the weakening block look b/c as long as the hemispheric configuration remains undisturbed, I could see the block regaining some strength and this would offer another period of potential...maybe even greater potential (for a larger event).

what I mean is it is getting tossed around and used too much. An OP run 12 days out showing a storm tracking well south doesn't necessarily mean or equate to suppression.

Suppression is quickly becoming another overused term

Well said, this is an excellent post! Couldn't agree any more with this.

It's fun doing this stuff. When you look at the data, especially if you graph it, you can easily see we go through stretches of horrible periods and periods where we get nailed. While I think most understand that, what drives me nuts is how some blame the lull now on AGW. Now, I am a believer that human activity is escalating climate change, but I'm not going to blame every anomalous weather event and what not on AGW.

@ORH_wxman Has snowfall for ORH been measured at the same location since records began or did the location change at some point? I've gone through and compiled a list of seasons below the 10th percentile and above the 90th for the major climo locations and for ORH I found it super interesting that since the 1950's any anomalous season is likely to be in the top percentile vs. the lowest. The first 50 years on record any anomalous season was virtually on the lower side And for those wondering, there is a reason why I am doing this. I've never dabbled much into the historical snowfall climatology but now that I am getting back into seasonal forecasting, it's important I better understand the climatology and I like playing around with data in different ways.

One thing on my list to do this spring/summer is a more extensive study into the PNA and the entire domain. But I also want to go back and look at some of the other teleconnection/oscillation patterns which are measured out that way and out over Europe/Asia. I used to have a massive list but can't find it.

maybe we can muster up a severe threat

What I do love in the winter, especially now is my office room at home has east facing windows, and with the neighbor cutting down the two pine trees last year I get ample sunshine blasting in the room so it can be like 20 out and as long as it is sunny I get toasty.

This sounds weird to say but I would almost rather have 30-35 and sunny over 45-50 and clouds.

Obviously winter is fun because of snow and potential threats. Tracking a real threat for multiple days is probably one of the most fun things in the world. But other than that, it can be really depressing here. Warm season is just so short. Sure we can get some very warm days in March and April but yup...we don't really do sustained warmth that early. Sometimes we have to wait until like the second half of June for sustained warmth and by then it's really just two months of it and by then we've already peaked in terms of sunset. I know it's just cyclical and we're in a horrific cycle for snowfall right now but hopefully one of these upcoming winters that tide will change. The <5:00 sunsets and close to 7 AM sunrises and chilly/dry/cloudy weather freaking sucks. Its much more enjoyable when snow comes with it.

We've made it out of the qualifying rounds. Our gold medal period is right around the corner. All we gotta do is go out there and take it.

It's a very inspirational speech...has me craving hockey and snow right now. Unfortunately can get neither right now.

You can have an entire week or two or whatever period average above for temperatures...you could easily get a day or two of below-average which coincides with a storm and snow. Like Herb Brooks said, "One game. If we played them 10 times they might win 9. But not this game. Not tonight." We could have above average temperatures 9 out of 10 days and still come out of that stretch with a big snow event. It just takes that one day.

Just for haha's I'm super tempted to dig a bit deeper and look at the 384 hour data. I'd be willing to be that after assessing everything, the result would be a look which would be more likely to favor below-average temperatures vs. above-average.

When I saw you posted in here I knew it was going to be something reflecting warmer temperature anomalies. And 384-hr 850 temperature anomalies...and using a static hour to signify a pattern change

I get how some are concerned with suppression but I just don't see suppression being a large concern. Too me it seems like pattern during the favorable period would favor potential for cyclogenesis anywhere from just off the Delmarva to mid-Atlantic coasts. Doesn't necessarily mean we get crushed as storm track could still be slightly out-to-sea but not sure I would qualify that as suppression.

I think we made it 2 pages without a snow map. Must be a record