weatherwiz

The timing on this has slowed quite a bit. Going to be one heck of a squall going across the region.

Man that is a violent shortwave coming through early Monday.

Tropical isn't really a high knowledgeable area of mine, but I thought coming into the season it wasn't going to be a hyperactive season just going off the basics. I think sometimes with this advance in technology and models there is too much infatuation with models and their outputs. Reading the seasonal outlooks from NOAA/Colorado, they always mention how simulations are ran hundreds or thousands of times...sometimes you just have to use the basics and knowledge.

What adds more interest to this IMO is it seems a lot of "correlations" we had been very familiar with have diminished over the past decade-plus as well. Now, the easy answer here is that is just a product of increasing our sample size (data set). This is likely certainly a factor, but how strong of a factor? But I suspect something else is going on too...and the way to come to that conclusion is when you break everything down into how we understand things and basic principles and you're getting results that don't make sense. also, if I understand correctly, the correlation is geared more towards the evolution of the AO? Lots of influences on the state and evolution of the AO, especially stratospheric processes.

Perfectly stated

The snow cover advance has to be one of the biggest frauds out there.

I'm ready!

A bit over two months until the sun starts setting later. Stuff that in your Halloween bags

GFS could be a decent fall severe weather event with several tornadoes for western and central PA Sunday. Could see a solid line of storms move across here overnight.

Could be interesting for a few hours early AM from just north of Los Angeles to just north of San Diego

Small plane crashed on I95 in Dartmouth looks like around 9 AM

A widespread 5-6'' is going to be tough to come by I think because once occlusion occurs smaller-scale processes will then factor into where any heavier rain occurs, but a widespread 2-4" I think is very doable. I would not be surprised though to see some 6-8" amounts locally, particularly along the coast (but a bit inland). Probably see a secondary max too up north across east facing slopes

One big difference of note too is the timing. Window for some of the worst weather was more Sunday...Sunday night, maybe early Monday morning but the NAM would have this occur more during the day Monday. Not sure how much I buy into the NAM evolution though. Something to watch though is potential for elevated convection from southeast Connecticut, Rhode Island, and far eastern Mass. Elevated convection typically not favorable for producing wind, however, because of the strong llvl jet any elevated convection would surely help mix down some of that llvl jet. I could see gusts 55-65 mph along the immediate coast with sustained winds 25-35ish. It will be windy inland due to the pressure gradient but I don't think we'll see much in the way of higher wind gusts. Probably wouldn't even really see any gusts above 30-35.

The initial rainfall rates are going to be insane.

sometimes the consistency is a bit bizarre Fair point. Stupid

yeah it starts out warm core but then transitions quickly. probably why nhc doesn't have a little lemon but then again they do for that feature near the Azores and gave it an Invest

some strong members too. coastal flooding would be quite significant. probably numerous power outages too from Long Island...probably even coastal SNE.

Definitely a back off of these winds across southern CT (at least on the 6z GFS).

Stronger would actually be a negative for us I think. Stronger would yield quicker occlusion and alot of the processes would begin shutting down. Ultimately, would lead to less wind/rain, especially away from the coast.

Obviously still early but seems like the best spot to really mix down stronger winds will be far eastern Mass/Cape Cod (surprise, surprise) but GFS has more in the way of some convective precipitation out that way. But we'll mostly be focusing on pressure gradient for winds and that will help inland. Def becoming a bit concerned for some power outage potential. Gusts 50-60 generally not overly concerning but will be with leaves.

12z GFS continuing the theme...maybe even a bit more stout with wind potential, even inland to the Pike. edit: nvm...its status quo, maybe a tad weaker. I still had 6z up

looks like a nice little wind core aloft not far up

and happy opening night for the Bruins hockey is back!!!!

Wonder if we end up seeing any lightning/thunder from Guilford on east across the shoreline

The rain is NUTS in Branford right now. Even a bit gusty