weatherwiz

At least there is a shot at some thunder Sunday night, especially towards the coast

Saturday should be dry and ranging from upper 40's to 50's

Those ridiculous drought maps lead to a whole new form of hype.

I think though that was more in the Sierras where that happened (2022-2023 winter?). But outside of that winter I think the West has had some serious "snow droughts" over the past several years. I say that kind of loosely because below average for some of the ski areas still can produce 200" of snow lol but I'm pretty sure many of those areas have been hurting YoY.

Let me know when its inside 12 hours

It could ride a male bouncer, doesn't change the fact that it looks like crap. But hold on...are you talking about Monday or later in the week?

Looks like crap.

And didn't a part of that 2.9 inches fall relatively recently (like a few weeks ago?). Yeah the wildfire concerns are going to be sky high. Can only hope that maybe in April there will be a break with some troughs digging into the West and at least bring some precipitation chances but its very concerning seeing such a ridge becoming established this early. Obviously its going to break down at some point but the concern is it builds right back in quickly.

Pretty odd sfc low development

It's been very bad...disastrous for the ski industries out there.

parts of Florida had more snow than parts of Utah? That doesn't sound right.

I'll take another 2002 severe season

It is going to be quite interesting to see which direction ENSO heads moving through the spring and summer. There are already emerging background signals that we are at least heading into the direction of EL Nino but of course we're still pretty far off from that. I know there has been some rumblings about the potential for a stronger EL Nino (should one materialize) which IIRC does hold some merit based on PDO evolution (isn't there some delayed connection between peak -PDO and an ensuing developing/stronger Nino?). But there's been a nice little WWB going on at 850 and guidance is robust with this WWB through the end of the month as it approaches the dateline. But we'll want to probably continue seeing a constant supply of WWB traversing the EPAC. I don't put much into short-term changes of Nino 1.2 because of how volatile it is but that region has had some significant warming which at least in the short term reduces the easterlies and upwelling of colder water off the continent. Going to be a fascinating summer in this regard.

I'm with you. The few days we had this month that were record warm were a breath of fresh air but outside of those few days its been chilly and breezy. Unfortunately, this looks like it will be the dominant theme to at least close out the month but of course we'll get the mild day or two out ahead of any FROPAS so long the main sfc low is well to our northwest. Some signs this massive western ridging may break down later which may boost our chances for a more milder regime but sometimes models can be a bit too quick with breaking down those stout ridges

The pattern looks about as boring as can be really unless you're a fan of some pretty chilly temperatures at times with chances for snow showers. Basically we get some milder days with FROPAS and chilly temperatures/snow showers. Any chance to end things with one more solid widespread storm appears pretty nil. Maybe we can at least get a decent warmup to begin April

EWR 62 knots as well

Very sad to hear. Enjoyed his posts. RIP

The dirty warm sector stuff really did a number on the lapse rates...might be difficult to really re-destabilize sufficiently. Also wondering if the better forcing started lagging behind a bit. A lot of this activity really struggled to become mature and develop strong updrafts. Instability didn't appear to be too terrible but maybe was just too weak given the magnitude of the shear so updrafts were being toppled over before they could sufficiently grow vertically. This probably isn't going to pan out to how it once looked but this is far from over. Window from say 3-8 PM could be interesting from central Virginia into North Carolina.

I am not familiar with the geography down there so I don't have much insight to provide. But does your school have good views in all directions? You really might not be in a bad spot.

I think you always have to be careful with the multiple round scenario and more often than not, lean towards the earlier round being more of the show. Especially around these parts, forecast models can really struggle in that regard and its even more of a case when you're dealing with a largely uncapped warm sector. Typically, if you're looking for multiple rounds you want to see a moderate or extremely unstable airmass in place. But this is still looking extremely interesting for much of Virginia into Maryland. Given how warm the llvl airmass is, based on satellite showing a large pocket of cloud breaks and approaching high noon, it won't take much to get temperatures to jump another 5-8F. Also noting the sfc winds are more backed in this area and may continued to back even more. You're storm inflow is also pulling in from higher theta-e which resides just off the coast. Going to have some differential boundaries in play too.

53 mph gust CLT, 61 mph just east of there

An argument can be made that the environment out ahead of the current TOR watch my actually be even more supportive for tornadoes and severe weather which is pretty striking to think about when you look at the probabilities within this watch. There is also potential activity out ahead of the main show could hinder the overall potential. Certainly discrete cells in this environment pose a concern but you pop main cells out ahead and they may not have as much forcing to work with (which would really help any discrete cells to maintain) and they could end up robbing some of the energy.

Pretty impressive sounding out of IAD tis morning. That's some serious shear in the lowest km and hell throughout the troposphere. Forecast CAPE may even be a bit underdone because it wouldn't take much breaks in the sun to boost the temp past the forecast. Even a bit of a residual EML in there. Hell of a lapse rate too up to the tropopause. You get deep convection in this environment and it's going to produce some destructive winds

Pretty wild environment as expected and there is already decent instability in place and satellite suggests that there will be at least partial breaks to allow for additional destabilization. What's really eye popping to me right now is 200-300 m2/s2 of effective storm-relative helicity and you have ~20 knots of sfc-2km winds which are nearly due easterly (inflow winds). The timing of the forcing out west looks more than favorable too. Mesoanalysis (using RAP background) gets 3km CAPE values >100 J/KG later this morning and early afternoon...pretty eye opening given the shear magnitudes.

Going to be lit up down that way today. That power outage map is going to look pretty wild I imagine