weatherwiz

I would not be shocked to see convective blossom towards the Cape tomorrow night

This is one of the more intriguing modeled wind setups we've had in a while. This is 12z NAM bufkit for BDL and for 2 AM. Like Scott said above, also have to watch for gusty showers/thunderstorms which could bring some locally damaging wind gusts but we should crank on the WNW flow. Strong pressure gradient and strong mixing overnight. Maybe some spots end up with just a bit of a near sfc inversion to keep the strongest gusts more to tree top level but there will be some 60+ mph gusts tomorrow night I'd think

Looking quite interesting tomorrow evening/overnight

The core of the winds moves through Wednesday night. It will be windy Thursday morning to begin, but gusts subside through the morning

18z NAM trended a bit more towards the GFS with the wind potential Wednesday night

This was 6z GFS for IJD

Well 12z GFS did not really back down. But as a reference for what is being discussed, here is a point-and-click sounding from within northeast Connecticut. That is a very well mixed lowest 1km (nearly dry adiabatic) with 50+ knot winds at 850mb. Very dry below the 850mb level too which would further enhance downward momentum.

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if it's toned down a bit with the 12z runs but I guess we'll get an idea when the NAM rolls out and whether it falls towards the GFS/Euro. The NAM isn't too far off from the GFS but the GFS has a narrow ribbon of 130+ knots at 500mb along the base of the shortwave...that's wild stuff.

Too bad that isn't coming through during the day, probably could get a few strong convective cells. But maybe some heavy graupel showers as that rolls through overnight. But yeah that is an impressive wind signal (at least on the GFS) with steep llvl lapse rates and 925mb winds >50 knots.

Yes, he adapted quickly. We took the drive to Shelburne Falls yesterday to pick it up and brought him along so they could make any adjustments needed. As soon as he was hooked up to it...he was going wild getting around. When we took him outside today, as soon as he saw it he almost like went right up to it and then turned himself around as if he knew what was going on. This is going to be great for him. Hopefully too this will help maybe build up some strengthen in his back legs, though not really sure that will do much at this point. We did a 3rd MRI a couple months back since he kind of regressed over the summer. It revealed the portion of his spine where the stroke occurred is slowly being replaced by fluid (which is preventing the neurons from his brain traveling to his lower extremities). So we took him off prednisone (which he had been on since the winter when we think he had a minor stroke) as it was not working as well anymore.

After a very long year and a half and just seeing if a full recovery would happen, the recommendation was finally made to go the route of a doggy wheel chair. Ordered last month and got it yesterday!

Yeah, one outbreak occurred from northeast CO into SW NE and a second from IA southwest into OH (but each were spawned from a separate system). Each person was assigned a different event so I don't know if everyone got a multi-region event or hell, if I even need to focus on both areas but I'm going to anyways. I had initially did my layouts talking about each level and then both regions...but I felt it was leading to a cumbersome mess. So I elected to try going about it doing the analysis separate for each area and it seems to be going much more fluidly.

Perfect, thank you! That's what I was thinking. Not sure why I've been beating myself up about this but I've let it stress me out so much that sometimes I'd come close to getting a panic attack and would get light headed

Odd question but I've been doing a lot of reading around o this but I can't seem to garner the appropriate solution. In a nutshell, I am writing a paper about a severe weather event and in this event there was a multi-region outbreak (from two separate systems). I've crafted several drafts of the paper because I'm trying to find the best method of doing the layout. This paper is an analysis (case study) so it will have 300mb charts, 500mb, 700, 850, etc. Anyways, I feel the best course of measure is to break the paper into two main sections, with one focusing on each region. Anyways with that, I would be referencing alot of the same maps twice. For example, Let's say that is labeled Figure 5 in my paper Where I am stuck is this: 1. When talking about this for the first region its labeled as Figure 5 2. When I reference this chart again in the second section, is in best to label it as another figure number, or is it fine to reference back to figure 5. I am going nuts on this. Note: All images will be at the end of the paper.

Nope...not hype enough for them

Exactly In fact, any snow potential we have, I'm setting my expectations at a Trace.

I wonder when in November (if we do) the pattern really begins to flip. I mean the extended GFS/Euro continue blowing the 576/582 500 heights well north into the country through mid-November. I think I made a post or two in the ENSO thread but (and this is not an official outlook or forecast) but I don't feel good about this winter at all. In fact, I would not be shocked if this ends up one of the warmer winters on record for the CONUS. Really curious to see how November plays out but we need something big/major (probably in the stratosphere first) to mix things up.

Let's get Philly a TOR tomorrow

What are the building codes like and what can they withstand? I mean if you're in the eyewall path for landfall and getting sustained category 5 hurricane winds with gusts approaching or exceeding 200 mph, with debris being tossed around...how much can structures take and withstand?

That is legit just off the surface. The noise alone from the winds off the deck have to be deafening.

Those readings from the southern eyewall are mind blowing. Horrifying for those in the path of the eyewall

wish this was just a few hours later but yeah maybe farther east has a slim shot

Beautiful day indeed Home opener for the Wolf Pack in Hartford tonight, couldn't ask for a better day

A vigorous shortwave trough crosses the region late Sunday night and Monday with strong cold front and triple point moving across the region Monday morning. This system will be characterized by a potent 80+ knot mlvl jet streak and 60-70+ knots of bulk shear overspreading the region to go along with steeping mid-level lapse rates associated with cooling temperatures aloft. Out ahead of the shortwave trough, a strong southerly flow will develop pumping in an unseasonably moist low-level air mass. The combination of an unseasonably moist low-level airmass combined with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates (~ 6.5 C/KM) should yield upwards of 250-500 J/KG of MLCAPE. Bulk shear values in excess of 60-70 knots combined with vigorous forcing will likely promote a squall line consisting of heavy rain, thunder/lightning, and strong-to-damaging wind gusts along the leading edge, moving across the region early-to-late morning Monday. Forecast soundings exhibit enough low-level turning, particularly in the vicinity of the triple point to warrant potential for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes.

Always amazes me how everything perfectly aligned to produce such a violent tornado. And add in the fact that it was a left moving supercell. The odds of such an occurrence have to be insane.