weatherwiz

Much of this week is actually even a bit below average, except probably towards the end of the week ahead of the next system.

I have to finish reading your outlook Ray (I've gotten through your MJO analysis) but I don't think it can be stated enough how phenomenal of a writer you are, your wealth of knowledge, and how easily you're able to explain things.

This wind is nuts. Was going to take a little break from class work and clean the gutters but I don't think I'll be going on a ladder in this

At some point soon it will change and we will get crushed.

"EPS looks good" "EPS looks good" blah blah blah, tired of hearing it. It's the same routine every year. 1. EPS shows a big pattern change around Thanksgiving 2. Looks like EPS is delaying the pattern change to around Dec 10. 3. EPS is delaying the pattern change to around Christmas, but don't worry, it's delayed not denied. 4. Well we're into the New Year, but winter us just about to begin. EPS shows the pattern changing in a big way by the 10th. 5. Well looks like the pattern change doesn't occur until the end of Jan but we should be in store for a big Feb...look at that trough on the EPS!!!! 6. winter's over. just couldn't cash in. March comes, finally get a good pattern - now a bit too warm outside of northern New England and elevation. Rinse, wash, repeat.

What a colossal joke between the Euro and GFS with the overall evolution and structure of the pattern next week and it goes beyond this. It's legit been increasingly difficult to find any strong model consensus or consistency. How the hell is anyone really supposed to glean a signal when assessing medium-to-long range (particularly longer range and by longer range I mean 8-10+ days out, not seasonal) outside of just basing off "analogs". Literally, who cares what EPS's show past D10 or what the EPO, NAO, PNA, AO, whatever are "forecast" to do. These facets have been irrelevant the last several years and when we've seen these features evolve as is...what was expected in terms out production was still wrong. Until we can figure out what the hell is going on with this model inconsistency and discrepancy it's all really just a big joke.

I think the final week or so of the month could be above average but I can see things kind of changing moving through December...but we all know how this works. We've seen plenty of times these last several years where models break down patterns and yield favorable looks past D10 and it never verifies. My really main worry with moving into December is we get wave breaking across the west coast then troughs begin to weaken and lift northeast while pumping up a ridge out ahead. The ridges won't be long lasting but will be timed with storms and then we deal with cold on the back end with snow showers while ski areas up north cash in. I get very, very cautious when it comes to needing the PAC to breakdown. We need to see something in the short term that indicates this will happen. Hopefully we can win with threading the needle early on.

dendrite should ban you for posting that

Pretty wild the differences that evolve between the GFS/Euro moving past like D4-5...first with strength/orientation of several features and then flat out how the pattern evolves. Here is to another winter of this crap I guess

Fair

Go big or go home and since I'm pretty much always home, may as well go big

I hope we get smoked for the first half of winter and then warm up in March. I've been thinking about this lately. As much as I hate the cold, its tolerable in December, January, and February but by the time March rolls around...I'm done, fed up, ready for warmth. Hoping for about 20-25" in December and January, then 30-40" in February, then off to the 70's in March.

Correct, but that doesn’t necessarily mean anything for us. This could just as easily benefit Europe. But something to watch for sure

Let's hope

yeah satellite looks awful (though I guess there may be some thinning/decrease). Probably be similar to last night in the cloud category. Figures this one would be weaker. Oh well...can go to bed early

looks like storm arrived 1915z

I really hope something changes moving through December. But I hope this really isn't another year of major wave breaking along the West Coast that pumps up a massive ridge across the eastern third of the country and we just see cutting/weakening storms as the approaching trough lifts out then we get several days of cold/dry on the backside of the systems and just rinse and repeat as the next wave break occurs and the next ridge builds. I think a month or two ago I made some comments that I didn't think ENSO will be a big player in the overall regime but kind of looking ahead...I actually wonder if (regardless of what ENSO indices show) the hemispheric pattern this winter may be reflective of what you would see in a stronger Nina event.

IMO, the expansion of the western Pacific warm pool (which Ray did a great discussion on within his winter outlook, which I will hopefully finish reading today or tomorrow and comment on) in recent decades probably elicits far more weight on the global regime versus ENSO (maybe even a stronger ENSO event) given the expansion of 29-30C SSTs which is going to contribute to a great deal of convection and latent heat release...oh and add in the regime of the WHWP.

Last October was epic, no? I remember running outside because a friend of mine sent me a picture his mom took in West Hartford...I was watching a Bruins game and missed a goal. Pretty sure that was October last year.

There was a paper I read a few years ago about the use of the RONI and how it is a better indicator of the true state versus the traditional ONI. There were multiple examples used, but there was one that looked at the 2015/2016 event, which per ONI was super strong. Based on forecasts and guidance for a super strong EL Nino certain measures were taken (I want to say it was western Africa) in preparations for impacts to precipitation, etc and ultimately took too aggressive measures and it cost some industries alot of money. But per the RONI, the event was not nearly as strong and their weather for the winter season was more reflective of that of a moderate event. Essentially, the study indicated if they used the RONI they wouldn't have taken as aggressive measures.

Well stated, and I completely agree with the bolded as that can translate with respect to ENSO as well. I think alot of thinking and ideas out there when it comes to ENSO and impact to global regime are based off ideas from like the 1980's through early 2000's. Our wealth of knowledge, data, and event have grown substantially. In fact, I even think ENSO state may be overplayed, particularly if it is a weaker or even a moderate event (depending on how coupled). I think one issue here is we are too married to the CPC definition of ENSO...there are something like 50 published definitions on ENSO. There is more to it too then just what the SSTAs are.

Agreed, it gets overstated way too much, especially wen it comes to worrying which phase the NAO is in. I get that a -NAO has a higher correlation to cold/snow versus a +NAO, but it's not a significantly higher correlation. What's most important is the structure of the NAO, placement of the pressure anomalies, and how the NAO is transitioning. I believe there is a much stronger correlation to snowfall with respect to a transitioning NAO versus a static state NAO

Am I the only spot in the region that has clouds??? This is BS

have a few flakes falling first of the season unless I missed any last night.

Getting some graupel mixing in here but was short lived