weatherwiz

Looks like some training supercells in Maine

We're def getting widespread rain and at least embedded thunderstorms. Just a matter of whether there will be any embedded strong/severe storms, and if so, is it rather localized or more scattered?

I wonder how much elevated CAPE we can get into the region tonight. There will be some sfc CAPE but there also will be an inversion probably so we probably or may not tap into the sfc instability. The NAM tends to overdo elevated CAPE but if it were to be right...it will be a very loud night, at least across CT, RI, and SE MA.

It's certainly intriguing for sure, especially given the shear forecast. If we aren't going to get steep mlvl lapse rates then hopefully we can get dewpoints into the lower 70's and at least increase potential to push MLCAPE values ~2000 J. Too early to really worry about CAPE potential but if we can muster 1500-2000 J of MLCAPE in this environment, there would be some nasty storms for sure.

best chance of severe yes. But we do have great dynamics and potent shortwave moving through with strong height falls so I think precip. will be expansive. What kills our severe potential with this is the lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and/or stronger cooling aloft. Having those present would yield stronger instability, despite the loss of heating. We will destabilize though after sunset just from increasing dewpoints though but don't think it will be enough to maintain svr potential outside of super localized

I do think we'll see widespread precipitation with thunderstorms moving through the entire region but risk for any strong or even localized severe I think is extremely low.

I am really stunned the SPC expanded the slight risk tomorrow and subsequently, the marginal risk further east tomorrow.

It’s hard to get overly excited for organized severe weather or a higher end severe potential without any signals of an EML. But if we can get dews into the 70’s with strong shear and height falls we can get swaths of wind damage

The timing Sunday looks awfully late...not good. Was a bit shocked to see the risk for for east with the D3. Was kind of hoping maybe we would start seeing some faster timing but 0z NAM is even slower

Actually it worked out well! Wasn't really expecting anything wild or out of the ordinary. Part of the fun on this is picking a location and then adjusting as needed. Because of the road network here and limited visibility with trees and hills, our preference is to always be at a spot well ahead of the storms, particularly for shelf cloud views. I tend to prefer not chasing the storms as they're ongoing (unless its being out ahead of them) because I don't want to risk encountering a flooded road or something like a tree falling if driving along roads which are heavily forested. I'd say today worked out as could have expected. Big winds or even hail is just an added bonus.

Ended up going north and catching 84 in Newtown and following storms along 84 into Waterbury. Wind wasn’t much but some lightning, a few loud booms, and very heavy rain.

Debating on going more north to Danbury and parking at the mall but thinking we just stay put. It’s about 25-30 minute drive and don’t want to fight traffic

Any day that ends with Y blows. Add in the fact people are absolute lunatics make it worse

Finally made it. Traffic sucks. Hate driving anymore

Off to Wilton, CT. Decided on a bit farther south and can adjust north or a bit south if need be...traffic dependent.

The RRFS did well yesterday for sure. In fact, some of the extended HRRR runs from the previous day hinted at that evolution and progression too. I would not be surprised if some of the guidance is underdone today as well. I think what helped yesterday was the cells which fired developed a strong cold pool and that helped the cluster materialize. I don't believe CAMs are great at picking up on that and I would not be surprised if we saw similar today. Also it looks like there are some residual outflow boundaries from yesterday as well.

maybe even Ridgefiled, CT might not be a bad go to area today

Might just go to Brewster, NY today and hope to get lucky. Probably just go around 1 and wait there and then hopefully can make minor adjustments if needed but giving its a Friday and storm timing...traffic won't be fun

We were hoping that cell would maintain as it went southeast but it weakened some.

thinking of around the Albany area tomorrow then we'll see what happens Sunday. Back to work Monday though and started summer classes this week which have me revising my life choices so not sure how much time for chasing I'll have rest of summer unless its super local

Chased this stuff down to near Trumbull. Decent winds along with some very heavy rain and some lightning. Saw a few good CGs and the edge of the shelf driving along Rt 8 towards Waterbury. Back to Springfield soon!

Stopped at BDL to assess. Going to head towards Torrington

I think there will be some storms overnight, perhaps some sort of cluster moving through. Not really liking how unenthused CAMs really are with today or even tomorrow. Lack of forcing is a big killer but I would not be shocked if we can get at least widely isolated stuff later this afternoon and if lucky, a small cluster moving through overnight.

OMG it hasn't rained for 3 hours....must be a drought!!!!!!!!!!!

Phil will be going crazy today