weatherwiz

I expect the radar to be crap tomorrow. The dynamics aren't particularly great there is a quite a bit of dry air aloft (outside of a rather narrow axis of moist air lifting southeast to northeast). It will be the Adirondacks, Greens, and probably Berks that get any accumulating snow. Elsewhere its just going to be a combination of rain showers, freezing drizzle, and some sleet pellets. Probably some wet snowflakes for the hills.

This. You really want to see surface temperatures more like 28-29 versus 31-32 to start having concerns for ice accretion and anything of subsidence outside of causing slick spots on untreated surfaces.

ahhh very true. Plus another 4/1/97 except lower elevations are nailed too.

Nope Will have to hope for next season

Does coming out of the event with less snow OTG than before it count as something?

Yup...going to be a tough one. Just like you said, probably be a very narrow area that may do well.

I wonder if this energy diving in is the make or break for multiple inches of accumulation. This is some pretty decent shortwave energy diving along with a rapid increase in the lapse rates so it becomes fairly unstable aloft. This also would support sort of a re-blossoming of precipitation downstream of it.

I could see tomorrow too being a case where the radar returns are much stronger than ground truth because of the degree of bright banding we'll see taking place.

I was thinking yesterday someone could probably pull off 3-4-5" but I don't see that happening now. I mean I'm sure someone in the Berks will do it way up but looking around at forecast soundings on the 12z NAM...they absolutely blow. Much of the precip type tomorrow is probably going to be rain (we'll say rain showers because the intensities overall probably not heavy outside of a narrow area) with some sleet pellets mixing in...and some areas will bounce around between like 70-30 or 80/20 mixture and you'll probably have to get into the hills to get some mangled snow flakes mixing in.

oof this is becoming a bit ugly. Really may be Pike north for best shot at any accumulations more than a few inches...maybe CT Hills can squeak an inch or two. Such a tough forecast, the band of snow is going to be so narrow

Think about it too like during the summer, we've had some summers where we've seen to get cold fronts to always come through around the same day each week, especially when the pattern isn't deviating much.

they don't, it's just how the spacing of storms/track work sometimes. I agree...theoretically the day of the week doesn't matter at all

Not discounting it...I think it makes a lot of sense as to why there likely is a correlation between certain weather events and day of week and even day of year. Weather systems generally (And I use this term a bit loosely) move through the flow at a specific speed as do ridge/trough propagation. If you look back at our historic periods, most of the big storms during them all tended to fall on or around the same date...like remember 2015 or maybe it was 2013...it was every Wednesday.

If the Leprechaun was perceived to yield more snow people would believe that too

I was thinking Wednesday that outside of wherever that narrow band of snow sets up probably consists of some very light periods of sleet or freezing drizzle but should be extremely low impact

I have to wonder how much of an influence the reduced balloon launches are having on the model uncertainty. I was looking at the 12z launches the other day and couldn't believe the lack of observations. This has to be having an impact. Tagging @Typhoon Tip because I'm really interested in his thoughts on this.

I'd be wary of the gradient setting up farther north versus south on this. There should be a pretty solid narrow, elongated axis of heavy snow though. Even some hints at a bit of a MAUL on some soundings

Ride the train of storms and just hope you end up on the right side of any boundary that may reside within the region. Certainly plenty of potential moving through the second half of the month. Someone is going to cash in the poker chips

Like 6 weeks and a few days and the 798hr CFS will be out to May 1

Definitely a bit intriguing overnight and some of the 12z guidance so far...certainly enough to put the south coast in game for a few inches potentially

If that first low can help set the stage for the subsequent systems I'd sacrifice that being more of a mix or even rain.

Transitions from Nina to Nino usually good in the severe department too

You'll like this. My professor last night posted a video discussion relating the assessment of teleconnections to medium-range forecasting and using teleconnections to help weed through models to sort of help differentiate the more likely from least likely solutions. He looked at some guidance over the past week...first using guidance from last weekend and comparing their evolutions and whether any made sense given the teleconnection background. This really made me think of your post yesterday when you stated you're not sure why some don't use teleconnections and it's absolutely true. Understanding the current background state and what may influences the structural changes moving forward can give one an added confidence boost in how the medium range may evolve, even when their is high model uncertainty. Having strong fundamentals in this can help a forecast weed out the least likely guidance from the more likely guidance. This is kind of like generating an ensemble in ones mind because you can take the guidance which seems most likely and bundle together in a sense

That would absolutely be a wild card but I think its more likely the TPV is going to end up on the other side of the hemisphere