yup...sucks when you get this convective chasing crap because there is no way to know for sure if its accurate until the event is unfolding. It also gets going just a tad too late...you can see if trying to recover and build NW at hr 30-33
Anyways at least this looks like a good solid regionwide 3-6" event. Don't want anyone interpret the discussion of the mid-levels meaning this is cooked lol. Just moreso trying to gauge what's the upper ceiling we're working with here
That's the direction I am leaning towards. I've spent the past hour just looking at anything and everything relating to storm evolution and it's really difficult to come to a conclusion that the mid-levels develop in time to really produce. If it does happen...this is going to be a big overperformer and I would still expect that to be within the CT River Valley...but just not seeing enough to bite and expect it will happen.
Agreed, I don't think we see anything significant, anything will be slight ticks. I do agree with him though about beefing up the dynamics, that is going to be important IMO, especially farther west into the region
They are in a tough spot with Panarin because if they end up moving him to a team he prefers, that could cut back the return. If he wants say Florida or Colorado the Rangers would be screwed. Mika will be difficult to move in-season.
Curious to see what 18z HRRR has specifically for early morning. I think Scott mentioned this but there is def signal for a band of heavy snow early in the morning
This is really such a tough forecast, I'm becoming quite optimistic but this could still go either way. Outside of eastern areas really, we're relying heavily on the mid-levels evolving. If they don't really crank...that puts a huge damper moving west across the region into the interior.
What a weekend this will be
Snow overperformed here today
Bruins go for their 6th consecutive win tonight
Going to get maybe several inches of snow tomorrow
Pats/Texas
Bruins likely acquiring Rasmus Andersson
Bring it all baby...wrap me up in the goodies
yup...and I think that could end up being pretty damn close to the CT River Valley. The euro really impressed me and for as much as I discounted the AIs its time to take the consistency they've had seriously and factor into the forecast
The impact of the profile farther east would be on the ratios...that snow is going to be quite heavy and wet and I could certainly see some concerns for scattered power outages. One thing I'll say too about tomorrow (and this is a big plus for everyone) is that DGZ is very deep (similar to today), it will not take much lift to really produce good dendrites and that will be a big player where you have the colder profile.
I think there is going to be a zone of 8-12" somewhere which will be the max jackpot and I think that could end up being the CTRV...there will be a secondary jackpot of about 6-9" somewhere in eastern MA with totals lowered due to the wetter snow.
I would not be surprised if guidance is too warm tomorrow, even without the lack of high to the north. Going to be thick in overcast and little mixing.
I will take back my comments...this has definitely peaked my interest. I think moving forward, if AI camps are steadfast and the traditional models are wavering and we have model-to-model inconsistency...well its a no brainer in which camp to lean in
You actually have to wonder if the heaviest banding may actually occur right over the CT River lmao. This could be a setup where its displaced more northwest than what models indicate