OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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Tuesday? I'm having a hard enough time wrangling my neighbors for tomorrow. But I honestly think a general 1-3 inland (3 being a stretch). I still think mainly sub-advisory everywhere, but will probably be forced into some for pretty map's sake.
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It's becoming pretty lonely on that island.
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Totally, I'm just seeing a lot of talk of high ratios (mostly internally not necessarily here) and just not buying it for several reasons outside of the main f-gen. Lots of forecast soundings have the lift above the DGZ, and that's not a great recipe for ratio success.
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I could see under the band someone getting a spike of good 15-20:1 snow for an hour or two, but overall I don't see a ton of support for a significant deviation from climo for most places.
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For PWM, I think so.
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Yeah, the NAM for instance really slides it east rather than pinwheeling it north like a more classic system. No real pivot. And parallel bands are notorious for the sharp northern gradient.
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I'm kind of thinking that the lack of a strong high to the Northeast is going to keep f-gen tied closer to the mid level lows rather than a classic NW Dendy band.
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HRRR is shorting this event. Hard.
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It even produces convective precip in the snow shield. But definitely think some of the NAM swings are due to orientation of all that convective QPF along the cold front.
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Producing quite a bit of convection.
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I saw the 00z runs had EOF1 that high. I was almost wondering if that pointed more towards a binary situation with two major camps. i.e. Either hits or scrapes.
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Oh well. As soon as I walk through the door at home.
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I'll walk out of my last shift on Sunday, headed home for the Super Bowl, with warnings flying left and right and snow amounts doubled.
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I feel like they got on the blended approach early, and most days are going to rack up wins because of it. They'll still have their clunkers if they aren't massaging it with human hands though.
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I do think their forecasts in general verify well from what I've seen.
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I mean realistically the forecast package goes out at 3ish anyway, so there's no need to chuck anything before the Euro.
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Big hole over Dendrite, can't be right.
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You want to find a part of a sounding (forecast or observed) that is saturated and has lapse rates steeper than moist adiabatic (6.5 C/km). Hence the absolutely unstable part. You can get conditional instability aloft if you saturate a layer and it cools as a result, but this is already saturated and unstable.
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Potential vorticity anomalies are typically changed through advection, and right now advection of the two features is parallel so they don't really have a chance to interact.
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Me too.
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Makes a difference when you can get some real sampling of the upper pattern.
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Soon we'll be offering Brian congratulations.
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All the literature I've seen says they "improved" the cold bias, but it doesn't mean it's gone.
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I'm actually not entirely sure we can change that. We can change the "detail" level for how specific a town size to mention, but it always references some direction from town center. So unless we made Hermit Lake Snowplot a "town" it finds the next closest thing.
