OceanStWx

What a difference a 40 mile shift makes. AUG dry but PWM +SN. That dry air was supposed to be farther SW by now.

If pressures rise in ME this evening that increases the ageostrophic drain to the SW, as winds will tend to blow in towards lower pressure (i.e. high to low).

MHT Bufkit soundings still have a stout cold layer through 09z. Like 4000 ft deep. I would also be pretty skeptical of any guidance that tries to rush the warm up above 32.

My guess is AUG had very light snow which tricked the ASOS into thinking it was UP. That's a pretty common ASOS error.

MWN winds are nearly prefect to max CAD and set up the drain down the terrain.

Now that just sounds like one of Scooter's made up Maine town names.

Could've done better if that band overnight had pushed a few miles NE. They were just outside the best of it. But from there down through GYX it's actually snowing quite nicely at the moment. Probably a little f-gen enhancement on the battleground between dry advection and WAA.

We didn't give you one December 2-3? Fried chicken for dinner?

That's where so many of our ptype forecast tools at the NWS offices fail. The one they are pushing everyone towards at the moment goes off max wet bulb temp. And +5C is enough to fully melt = lots of freezing rain. Not every model has the capability to provide probability of refreezing to sleet grids, which increase as your cold air magnitude gets larger. Thickness grids attempt to get at it, but they are fixed and not ideal for all situations. Ideally we would have a functioning area above or below freezing tool to determine ptype. It's coming but it's there yet. And even then it would still miss low level snow generation, because it's looking from the top down.

The Bufkit soundings for MHT do show a cold magnitude around -6C where decent omega just below that level. That would be my best guess.

Not really. I think there's going to be a lot of mix to contend with. Forecast soundings actually get worse overnight as the warm nose pushes farther north, so now is the best looking time for snow growth.

And that's the rosiest of model scenarios that I'm seeing. The NAM holds that changeover off until overnight and by then it's too late.

And you can see the northern edge of precip starting to sag south as the dry air feeds in. Dews across ME are dropping in the last hour.

There's some faint hope. Soundings are pretty toasty aloft through the late afternoon/early evening. Once they cool off the DGZ is pretty dry though, so the snow may not be pretty.

Nothing worse than being at work but having no part in the forecast.

2.8" when I woke up this morning. Yeah, not sure I'd be calling that a dry slot. The real dry slot is over BUF. It may be a shredded warm conveyor at times, but we're not in a dry slot.

Not looking good for your internet again... You're in a "great" position for icing out of this event.

This has a look of elevation ice. That cold for a lot of NH is quite deep, but if your hill is already 1000 ft up that's less time to refreeze to sleet. Monadnocks up through Sunapee could be the winners.

For much of our northern CWA this is a pretty classic snow or sleet sounding. It's still fairly dry in the low levels so wet bulbs support snow, but the actual temp is still warm enough to melt hydrometeors and the aforementioned low level dry air evaporatively cools that to sleet.

Just plugging back in after an delayed Christmas at home, but boy that's some deep cold air through 850 mb on the higher res guidance. Screams sleet. I actually think we're probably a little overblown on our snow forecast at the moment. Gets awfully warm at 700 mb, and you know there will be some sneaky warm layers in between.

Honestly churns my stomach a little bit (your son getting hurt, not the erasure of snowpack!). I know my little boy is going to get hurt, but it doesn't stop my from wincing every time he takes a tumble. Glad he's rebounded today though.

I think the remote sensing is based on LE, so the higher the water content the more pack it will think is there.

The most.

I think it's a combo actually (coop, survey, airborne, and modeled).

Miller A, always slips east in the end. NEXT.