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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    I think we claw and scratch our way to 3-4" in southern NH. We hold.
  2. OceanStWx
    Oh no, this system was crap on guidance. The only success is that models were consistently showing rather poor snow growth. But moving the best forcing that far north in the last 24 hours was not a great showing.
  3. OceanStWx
    Wait until he sees the ocean effect on the extended HRRR.
  4. OceanStWx
    Needle threaders are definitely going to carry more risk at disappearing than the ones in a pattern that is supportive. I mean while we were weenie-ing out on the impending 3 day snow storm, the GFS was showing a potential stemwinder at hour 288. Turns out it was off by 24 hours, but 4 inches of rain later it did sniff out a big system. It was just wet not white.
  5. OceanStWx
    I'm not talking cherry picking one run, but multiple models showing a couple day window with an event. I never saw any agreement from modeling on what to do with that PV streamer drifting aimlessly across the country.
  6. OceanStWx
    I would actually argue that they are better at sniffing out a real threat in the long ranges when your realistic window is much larger than when you're trying to pin it down to hours. It's the near term when a 20 mile shift can really wreck a forecast that the higher resolution guidance is showing big differences. That's why when all else fails you need to work from the top down. A model is way less likely to whiff on a jet streak, than a vort max, than the 850 front, etc.
  7. OceanStWx
    I'm closer to the 4", but that's the ballpark.
  8. OceanStWx
    I don't know about this FV3 version of the KFS... Still some signs that we may be able to pull off a couple hours up here where we can tick off a couple inches real quick, but it's definitely not a high confidence deal.
  9. OceanStWx
    I don't think a whole lot changed from the pretty rough look in the snow growth zone, it just got shoved a whole sub-sub-region north (SNE to CNE).
  10. OceanStWx
    Our onset graphic was 5 am for AFN. METAR KAFN 170952Z 00000KT 1 1/4SM -SN
  11. OceanStWx
    Lake effect and Rieslings instead of coastal fronts and hazy IPAs?
  12. OceanStWx
    Definitely not expecting a SNINCR 4/8 at MHT again, but right around midday there is some potential for 1"/hr stuff in a couple hour window.
  13. OceanStWx
    Simulated reflectivity looks like a summer squall line.
  14. OceanStWx
    Ginxy doing backflips about Wednesday evening yet? Hi-res guidance looking very WINDEXy.
  15. OceanStWx
    Last year or so, yes. The science is definitely there for these concentrated discussions now but I wouldn't expect to see any around here soon.
  16. OceanStWx
    This was the sensitivity map from 12z yesterday. That blue over us was saying lower heights there matched a more suppressed (higher surface pressures over New England) system. So the converse being true, latent heating from convection pumping those heights up would lead to a more amped system and lower pressure over New England. Seems a completely reasonable hypothesis that convection played a significant role here.
  17. OceanStWx
    Just getting into the office now and first look at the lightning looks pretty favorable for nice moisture transport into our front.
  18. OceanStWx
    Hazard Simplification wrapped up all advisory level hazards into "Winter Weather Advisory for..." style headlines. Ice Storm Warnings still exist.
  19. OceanStWx
    Hubb loves no AC and sweaty kids in late June.
  20. OceanStWx
    Models definitely hinting at a several hour period of 1"/hr on the leading edge.
  21. OceanStWx
    Maybe some lollis, but overall with the relatively warm sounding and dry air sneaking into the DGZ I'm not locking anything more than 10:1 for a ratio. Much of the event could be a rather dense ratio in fact.
  22. OceanStWx
    New NAM would probably avert disaster a bit for HVN. "Wastes" some QPF at the beginning on snow and only has about 0.25" QPF left for FZRA. If you assume half runs off, that's a tenth of an inch of ice rather than a quarter like previous runs were showing.
  23. OceanStWx
    I'd check the Rapid Refresh website itself for the experimental. You can get variable density snow accumulation, which will be more realistic with sleet. Looks more like a stripe of 4-6" there.
  24. OceanStWx
    Nah, does Scooter go full ground stop at Logan or does he let them skate by with 1 1/4SM -SN.
  25. OceanStWx
    Some people had an advisory for both!
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