OceanStWx

I think there will be some redevelopment too, my concern is that will be a narrow area. I would like to see cloud tops cooling if we were to pick up widespread accumulations to end it.

Guidance (at least last night) showed that the dry slot raced in between 500 and 700 mb around 15z. So I can't say I'm surprised that it's getting poor now. There were signs of Scooter on the runway with his flares. I was always a little skeptical of the northern edge of this. There was broad 700 mb f-gen, but more of a widespread light stuff, vs the 850 mb f-gen which cranked near the MA border. This is correct. I was on board with a beefier SWFE here, but it's clear that the dry slot aloft is overwhelming good forcing around 850 mb.

That extra 3 hours is all the difference. Bufkit NAM/GFS KTOL to KBOS split is 4.2/6.9 to 7.5/11.5. When you're snowing around 1 inch an hour, the hours add up.

And if you look at the GFS f-gen prog for instance, the 850 and 700 mb forcing is sloped into the cold air. So the 850 forcing near the MA/NH border will be south of the 700 mb forcing in the Whites.

Agreed on the quasi-stationary aspect. It's a lateral band as it pushes into SNE, but then doesn't seem to make the full run through the region and starts to slide east. That makes the standard 6-10" not really useful as a forecast. It's hard to toss the EPS when it's been so damn consistent on the MA/NH border for days now.

Had to give my boy his sled early that Christmas so he could actually use it before our 21 inches was wiped out. His first taste of true winter disappointment.

Not really the thread for this, but Regardless, should be a nice event. A little tricky since it's more of a hybrid than true SWFE. Instead of one big lateral band sweeping over the whole region is starts to slide east late and becomes more quasi-stationary. So that northern edge is not a lock (beyond the mix issues south). So like congrats Dendrite.

I'm not inclined to believe that any more than I'm inclined to believe halving snow in the next two decades. Solar inputs have indicated we've been cooling for at least decades now, and annual average temp hasn't cared one bit. Now significant reduction of snow cover days, that I could believe. Anyway, the EPS EFI highlighting the Pike to NH border with the most extreme values right now for the model climate. But nothing eye popping, which to me points towards a pretty standard sort of SWFE for this time of year.

Well climo for the season is soon going to 0 after all.

Right at the transition zone it'll be decent, but in the all snow area - garbage.

During the blizzard he was one of the few mets I saw that included a band of higher snow totals NW of the main show and he stuck with it through all the wobbles. Turned out to be a really good forecast. But he does love his garden, so there will be tweets.

We've learned not to shit talk snow in our discussions/social media lest we get the hill folk backlash.

ACY beating GYX.

Flash picked up about 20 minutes ago between OWD and BED.

Boy the sun will shine straight through that inch to the ground.

Well it still may crap out before getting here, but the squalls are well west in NH right now. This really is a great case for using all available obs (i.e. satellite) because the radar can make you hallucinate that it's meh when they go through dead zones. I don't think this line increased in intensity so much as it just got sampled better as it got closer to BOX.

Sting could give you some tips.

What I would give...

We're starting to lose its utility because of daylight, but I find the day cloud phase RGB curve to be helpful for stuff like this. Where you have the greener, liquid cloud tops, especially when they start to glaciate (turn reddish) at the top you've got a pretty good convective snow shower going. That looks to be the case all the way up into Cheshire County before it starts to get broken and/or weaker.

FYP

Mean of 57 for BDL, lots of low to mid 60s though along with the duds.

<1/4SM visibility from CYUL to ISP.

It represents the location of the center of convection (and thus latent heat release) near the equator. The convection can build ridging, which then affects downstream pattern. You can see how ridging forced from 7/8/1 could favorably line up with -EPO and cold for our local area.

Charlton has a nice line up today. King Julius, Haze, Gggreennn, Doubleganger. I've liked the "Treat"s in the past too. Kev may be able to comment better on the Jjjuiceee Project stuff, but it looks good.