OceanStWx

Flash picked up about 20 minutes ago between OWD and BED.

Boy the sun will shine straight through that inch to the ground.

Well it still may crap out before getting here, but the squalls are well west in NH right now. This really is a great case for using all available obs (i.e. satellite) because the radar can make you hallucinate that it's meh when they go through dead zones. I don't think this line increased in intensity so much as it just got sampled better as it got closer to BOX.

Sting could give you some tips.

What I would give...

We're starting to lose its utility because of daylight, but I find the day cloud phase RGB curve to be helpful for stuff like this. Where you have the greener, liquid cloud tops, especially when they start to glaciate (turn reddish) at the top you've got a pretty good convective snow shower going. That looks to be the case all the way up into Cheshire County before it starts to get broken and/or weaker.

FYP

Mean of 57 for BDL, lots of low to mid 60s though along with the duds.

<1/4SM visibility from CYUL to ISP.

It represents the location of the center of convection (and thus latent heat release) near the equator. The convection can build ridging, which then affects downstream pattern. You can see how ridging forced from 7/8/1 could favorably line up with -EPO and cold for our local area.

Charlton has a nice line up today. King Julius, Haze, Gggreennn, Doubleganger. I've liked the "Treat"s in the past too. Kev may be able to comment better on the Jjjuiceee Project stuff, but it looks good.

Not moving with the surface flow, so I think it's tied to something higher aloft. It also isn't evident near BTV when you look at various loops, so the radar is only seeing it at higher tilts. It also is meteorological I think, at least CC doesn't look super low like chaff. There's a boundary on WV that looks like it could be pushing through now, like the shortwave trof axis.

Hard to tell but it looks like a chunk of lake ice has broken off on Sebago and is being pushed south by the winds. It doesn't look like cloud cover normally looks and it is definitely moving slowly south. Can't say I've ever seen that before.

Yeah, congrats on the WINDsEX.

Without fail. I cling to hopes of another March 2012 like I cling to my DIPAs.

I'm not sure if it specifically will be replacing everything, but the rapid refresh forecast system (RRFS) will be taking the place of all the hi-res stuff. That's not until late 2023 at best, so I expect a lot of work on the CAM FV3. I honestly don't know enough about it to know why it has struggled so much.

Running back through the last 24 hours of model runs and it seems the globals in particular struggled to capture the magnitude of f-gen in the mid levels. NAM had it, but GFS faded it well south of where it actually is. Euro somewhere in between.

That sums it up pretty good. This burst is all 700 f-gen, continues through mid morning, the reorganizes closer to the low. But this band could produce some decent fluff this morning. Brief crosshair in the DGZ.

I'm actually somewhat interested in this band on radar right now. Well aligned with 700 mb frontogenesis, which is right around the DGZ. 00z NAM had it pretty close to its current location (06z lost it ). I think this may actually produce more of the surprise snow than the consolidating around the low pressure later.

It's really a CAD look despite the cold not really holding. The spots you expect to torch their way out of CAD are doing it. HIE 47 but BML 37.

Helps that the dewpoints are still in the 20s. I had a hard time getting temps falling into the 30s for most places through the night but pushing 50 is a lot. Then again when it's ripping at 60 knots at the top of the inversion it's hard to cool off much with all that WAA.

BTV does a great job with upslope. I think some of that is due to a relatively high population living in impacted areas and their radar is well positioned to capture it. Upslope north of the Whites is essentially invisible to our radar because we're either blocked or overshooting. I think a lot of times a less experienced forecaster could completely miss an upslope event if they just glanced at the radar. I always have a webcam up from somewhere north of the mountains, and my rule of thumb is if HIE or BML drops to less than 3 miles, it's snowing hard in the favored upslope zones.

We were trying to get hard data on it before John moved from Pittsburg, but our guess was that we probably only forecast like 60% of the snowfall up there. A lot of hand waving of upslope snow showers at 30 PoP when it's 1/4SM for half the day.

That's real close around GYX. It's a marginal sounding, but hanging around that magic 1000 ft depth of warm air that can be overcome if rates are heavy enough.