OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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Yeah, we're also doing extra soundings every 3 hours to provide additional data. We tried to during the blizzard as well but lost two balloons that were shredded in the wind and a third sonde hit a tree (or the radar?) and lost signal.
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Come on, he briefly hit 32.4 at 9:45.
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You can easily see the boundary close to the radar if you loop BOX velocity. Dropped PVD from 54 to 37.
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Models handled it really well. Kind of took the cold surge and sloshed it off the ORH Hills but didn't get over the top into CT.
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Scooter below freezing before Kevin.
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You can't ever bet against those warm layers.
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Hard hat day out there. Measured 0.9" sleet before I took off for work. Went below freezing sometime between midnight and 5 am.
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I told you, that lift means business. Hope you stay on the good side of it.
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RAP says you're snowing in 1 hour 30 minutes...
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Schroeter. Those maps are sneaky, because they're going to lump sleet in and make it look like snow. I personally am less bullish but I'm not going to micromanage someone's forecast and warnings are already up for generally awful weather during the commute.
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I'm leaning closer to 10:1 for the meat of it.
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Mind you I hate the P&C wording, but I could see someone pulling 20s. That banding could support 1+ an hour for much of the event. Probably the only limiting factor is that I'm not sure we're going to have the fluffiest ratios.
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Less than 1/4SM vis here at GYX... ...with fog.
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I'm expecting not much more than 1-3" and much of that could be sleet. But I may drive into a pounding snow on my way to GYX tomorrow morning. ALB is nearly due east of the radar. A hair north if getting technical. But it's south of the melting layer for sure.
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No CC on the regional radar, but you can see the change in reflectivity subtly marking the mixing aloft. This line would push north some in Maine as the WAA increases later tonight, but it will be pretty fixed where I drew the line.
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The way I would play it right now is take a look at regional radar. The correlation coefficient is showing up nicely with a flattened NW edge at BGM and ENX, showing the mid level melting layer. According to model forecasts those should be a relatively straight line. I would draw that line through Maine and south of that is where you're looking at the most sleet/freezing rain. Models don't really budge that front aloft until that low slips out towards the Cape.
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HRRR has a temp of 41 and NW winds at ALB at 21z. It's currently 41 with NW winds at 2043z. Tossed.
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And this is kind of anafrontal (for the frozen stuff) and flash freeze.
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Actually love how the NAM sharpens the gradient with time. That's a trend I can believe in. Whether it's in the right location is a different story.
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Scooter below freezing before Kevin.
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If I had full control of the forecast today I would not be congratulating Dendrite. I would bring the sleet up that far for a time. There an old rule of thumb that the heaviest snow is along the 850 mb -4C isotherm. That is pretty consistently around a LEB-Skowhegan line.
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I think it will be, but it isn't going to go from double digits to zero. More like this relatively wide swatch of 2-4 types stuff with a lot of sleet contribution before you jump into the big totals. But given how stable the forcing is aloft, just north of the mid level front is going to pound town.
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It probably will be too. The forcing is intense but incredibly stable in location. Whoever gets under it will be several hours of 1"+/hr. I think most model sites are going to include sleet as snowfall because it is frozen. So naturally Kuchera or 10:1 will be way too high. Pivotal tries to separate out sleet and so the gradient is sharp but not quite as extreme.
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