OceanStWx
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OBS/DISCO - The Historic James Blizzard of 2022
OceanStWx replied to TalcottWx's topic in New England
Isn’t that additional? It’s only starting from 7 am this morning. -
OBS/DISCO - The Historic James Blizzard of 2022
OceanStWx replied to TalcottWx's topic in New England
Most of my forecast updates last night revolved around trying to sharpen the gradient between the coast and interior. I had a hard time seeing the banding getting west of 495. -
While mid levels don't really get going until around 09z tonight, I think we should keep an eye on the banding in the Mid Atlantic right now. It appears to be mainly driven by 700 mb fronotgenesis, or at least matches best with those forecasts. One thing models agree on is that if you draw a line down the axis of the band it does not get any farther west all the way up through New England. The NAM is probably the closest to getting it done.
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Yeah I'm more of the mind that you take the low number on the BOX ranges and that's a good expectation right now.
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Of course the BOX snowfall forecast is the upside potential, so I don't really see that changing any for the who are starting to dream. Or at least it shouldn't.
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Saw it on Twitter. Beers are mostly frowned upon at work.
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Despite what the surface reflections/QPF show, the 700 mb lows are all between the canal (NAM) and elbow (RGEM). That's not bad.
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The stamp on the bottom was golden.
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My guy feeling is that some of these wonky convective fox hunts are going to lead to smaller coverage of some major totals. I wouldn't feel great with widespread 20+ right now in my forecast, but Fish did a good job of highlighting two areas that at this time look most likely to do it with 12-18" everywhere else east of ORH.
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Actually buoy 41002 has a 1002 mb pressure, so it's probable that the initialization of the SPC is splitting the difference between the RAP background and the actual ob.
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Complete and total endorsement
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Nah. BOX should be 5 ppd if they have 25:1 in their grids right now. I would entertain 20:1, but only once I have complete confidence based on mesoanalysis where that band is setting up.
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It's hard to look at this and hate what it shows for east of a BDL/ORH/GYX line.
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Good think Kevin and I have matching hair styles.
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Probably not moving much if at all. I like where our forecast is right now.
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Again couldn't really draw up a better 700 look. From SE CT right through the ME coast.
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We both are. He's got the day shift and I come in as shit hits the fan.
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Yep. That was the season I started to address our false alarm problem at GYX. I think we were like 40% that season despite how great it was for snow.
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Ultimately the lead on shift, but the other mets make their forecast if they are tasked with the storm and the lead only steps in if it's just bad/wrong. Management doesn't usually dip into dictating the forecast.
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Sure, but that means you have to factor in all the upper air patterns that match and by no means are the analogs a lock on widespread heavy snowfall. What these tell me is that the coast looks pretty locked in, even the bad ones still caught the coast with decent snow. But there are also a couple complete whiffs in there. I don't think that happens obviously, but it goes to show you that this type of upper air pattern can produce many different results.
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No. About as classic a going down with the ship forecast as there ever was. PWM ended up with 2 inches after a blizzard warning was hoisted to Sugarloaf. I think like 5 or 6 of our warnings verified out of 33.
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That's the biggest red flag I see right now. Everything has come in ripping that east, and not just surface precip either but 700 mb f-gen/omega too.
