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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    Ekster just pointed me to the Euro density functions and man there is a good wind signal showing up. The 10th percentile wind gust at PWM is like 17. 17 m/s! That's a helluva floor.
  2. OceanStWx
    We don't really have that many QPF sources to use beyond 60 hours. You have your standard GFS, GEM, and Euro runs, plus WPC's QPF (usually their super-ensemble blend) and the NBM. This would appear closer to the WPC blend, so at least it's using some ensemble data and not just deterministic runs.
  3. OceanStWx
    I'll never forget in the run up to Feb 2013 the NAM spitting out 4" QPF for PWM. Of course that in and of itself was enough to tease a historic event incoming despite it being a fantasyland forecast.
  4. OceanStWx
    Glad to see everyone is keeping their expectations in check.
  5. OceanStWx
  6. OceanStWx
    If you look closely you can see the second shooter on the grassy knoll.
  7. OceanStWx
    Maybe he meant 35 in CT?
  8. OceanStWx
    Come on. We're one good melt from you away from a February 2015.
  9. OceanStWx
    At work now, but looking at PWSs online and my neighborhood went from 22 to 35 in like 15 minutes. Security cam may have fogged up when the temp spiked too.
  10. OceanStWx
    14 degree temp difference between my house (22) and Martin's Point (36) 2.5 miles away.
  11. OceanStWx
    Downsloping off the massif. Seriously. Could be subtle warming from the downsloping that's enough to flip the ptype.
  12. OceanStWx
    Nickel size hail south of Toms Rivers.
  13. OceanStWx
    Honestly wouldn't be crazy. There is a ton of 0-3km shear, the question is whether we can drag enough instability inland. There is very little CAPE, including 0-3km CAPE, at the moment. I not sure the environment is going to improve all that much for Long Island and southeast New England enough to really be trouble in the end.
  14. OceanStWx
    It probably will be, but man it's close. It's a shit sandwich, but a lot of the forecast soundings are just on the verge of being supportive of snow at PWM when the bulk of the precip comes through. Maybe we get lucky a rip 2 or 3 inches in one hour before the flip.
  15. OceanStWx
    I'm just glad our changeover is happening in daylight, because then we may have some hope of verifying warnings before it gets rained on.
  16. OceanStWx
    That's really the recommendation.
  17. OceanStWx
    I’m not aware of any systematic bias with shortwaves lately. I do know in the past models struggled with short wavelength spacing between shortwaves and would keep them too strong. However that normally affected the lead wave more, dampening it out, vs the trailing wave.
  18. OceanStWx
    Really amazing how the 18z NAM gives the double freedom tickets to Indiana. It manages to snow at LOT and TOL and somehow nowhere in the state in between.
  19. OceanStWx
    That’s how I’m reading it too. The northern stream is really dominant in these ensemble runs. It digs so much that the southern stream has no choice but to slingshot inland. I really don’t hate thinking of some of these “bad” runs as a WAA thump and done. Throw a laterally translating band across for 6” region wide and then slot. It wouldn’t be the worst thing to happen this winter.
  20. OceanStWx
    The 00z ensembles were really sensitive to the northern stream this time around. So that was what was really bullying the low pressure locations overnight. So some combination of weaker northern stream or stronger southern stream would be helpful.
  21. OceanStWx
    Yeah, maybe the morning run went to his head? Very clear westward shift from 12z.
  22. OceanStWx
    Looking at the 12z GEPS sensitivity it didn't really have a coherent pattern to follow until like 36-48 hours from now. It seems to be more northern stream dominant, like way up in northern Alaska right now northern.
  23. OceanStWx
    My reaction always seems to be WTF. Shift of tails, ensemble sensitivity, etc. It all sounds made up. But once I did some training on it, they're really powerful tools. There's so much more than the mean. The mean may be a good forecast starting point, but some of these other tools can tell you whether you can honk or head home.
  24. OceanStWx
    I try but honestly I even have to review the literature every once and a while to remember what things mean. All I know is the days of analyzing a single model run in the extended are long gone (or should be). Just a ton of data to be gleaned from the ensembles now.
  25. OceanStWx
    That's why this is done with the ensembles more so than the deterministic runs. Because you get a stronger wave through many runs and on average the mean shifts east. But the deterministic could have one weird moose fart that leads to a poor solution locally.
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