OceanStWx

Absolutely. GFS bias is more progressive anyway. But I can already see the sparkle in the weenies' eyes of 2 ft in 9 hours or something like that.

Great look to the mid levels, but boy that GFS is flying. In and out of BOS in less than 12 hours.

Not especially hard to rime snowflakes enough to produce a graupel-like hydrometeor, but there was just so much supercooled water thanks to the convection that more true ice than "Styrofoam" started falling.

He had an 80% chance of no pants on below that NBCCT graphic.

You know we'll get at least one run like this.

That's where all the variance is coming from too. That handoff from the North Pacific into the western "ridge". Still looking at tomorrow/tomorrow night when some balloons may be able to sample some of that. All the spread is in the area of a tucked solution. WPC cluster analysis is nearly split down the middle. 55% of the members farther east, 45% tucked in closer.

That's probably going to be the biggest story in post-event reviews. Not buying the snow threat wasn't great, but then no real mention of a power outage threat. I think you're being a little harsh there. Kuchera and 10:1 were pretty similar maps. But that depth map isn't that far off reported totals as it winds down. DCA reporting a snowfall and depth of 6.7/7. The over 10" amounts are just south of the DC area like shown on the 02/12z ECMWF. Maybe the depth is going to miss the highest amounts, but overall that map will be vastly better than the 10:1 or Kuchie maps. Of course that's why we don't like to forecast with clown maps to begin with.

I’ll never not think of tornado controversy with that town.

Nice MAUL down in AL. No wonder they are pulling TSSN.

Maybe Scooter can bag an OES band and still end up at 2 inches.

Love the -35 dewpoint in the mid levels.

Better chance of seeing this tomorrow.

Snow depth change products are all around 4 to 5 inches for those cities. Might be better between RIC and DCA, like CHO, where 6+ is being hit a little harder.

There's going to be some brutal gradients on the northern edge too. Philly wondering WTF happened while 20 miles away gets 6+.

Social media tornado report last year (of course it ended up being correct ) Still not seeing a lot of room for dramatic improvements here. Northern stream is still coming in deeper than model forecasts, which is going to tend to flatten the whole thing out. Any minor differences in the southern stream or ridging ahead of it doesn't look to be enough to overcome. It's really splitting hairs, but when the expectation is 2 inches at IJD and the highest model guidance is like 0.8", no wonder people are always disappointed around here.

Of course it could be just as likely to jump 40 miles south.

They are underdispersive too, which is one of the reasons why they are upgrading to 100 members soon.

GEFS are a bit underdispersive, meaning the ensemble will tend to move as one too often. Ideally you would have a lot of different solutions and the ensemble spread would include the correct one. So if the op loses it, I'm not surprised when the GEFS does too.

Gotta watch those ones brewed with lactose.

I wish I had more runs of the EPS to look at but IAD mean snowfall went from 2 to 6 inches in 18 hours.

Euro initializing?

Nice conflicting signals tonight as sonde data comes in. Both the northern stream and the southern stream are deeper than 12z guidance forecast. Conflicting because ensemble sensitivity suggested that you wanted a deeper southern stream/weaker northern stream to produce a stronger/farther west system for Monday. So then the question becomes which feature do we believe dominates. I'm personally leaning that the northern stream is going to "cap" just how much room this one has to sneak north. If we can't give ridging enough room to flex ahead of the southern stream that pretty well limits potential.