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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    Their leads have all been there since I was in college 15 years ago, and at least 5 of their 7 mets grew up and/or went to college in New England.
  2. OceanStWx
    Technically speaking, a watch is 50% confidence while the forecast ("wind gusts up to 45 mph") is the most likely outcome. So while it's not ideal for the forecast to not match criteria of the headline, it is possible.
  3. OceanStWx
    I only use the median when it shows a more exciting number. But yes, in this case it tells a lot about last evening's model runs when compared to the mean.
  4. OceanStWx
    I was going to say, I think it's dead. I had to use the NAEFS situational awareness table now. It's not as pretty.
  5. OceanStWx
  6. OceanStWx
    When does NHC name it?
  7. OceanStWx
    Well if it were a 90 knot 925 mb jet I would easily take half that value as a gust to the bank.
  8. OceanStWx
    FWIW, the NBM has a mean around 3.8" for FIT but a median of 4.7", so there are actually quite a lot of pieces of guidance (much like individual EPS members) that are real soakers.
  9. OceanStWx
    U wind anomalies FTW.
  10. OceanStWx
    CAA will hit the high terrain first.
  11. OceanStWx
    We confirm. Clearly no lightning in the area yesterday, but GLM picked up a flash between 11:10 and 11:20 am.
  12. OceanStWx
    My problem has been finding info on exactly what the scheme is to improve the moist physics. Their little scorecard thing shows some subtle North America improvement beyond 144 hours in the heights and MSLP over the control.
  13. OceanStWx
    In theory ditching some of the wonky diabatic heating related solutions could improve synoptics. But if it doesn't snow in my backyard we toss in favor of the Canadian.
  14. OceanStWx
    Moist physics FTW? I'm still trying to find numbers on it myself, but I've seen a few modelers drooling over that specific improvement.
  15. OceanStWx
    Rather than watching the Jets I'll watch Italy/Belgium. PWM is really looking like it will challenge 2017 for some of the warm records, especially when it comes to low temps (like fewest <40 days).
  16. OceanStWx
    Only two seasons there. There is something elegant about the season of abundance and the season of shortage, but it's harder to mow down New Yorkers in the middle of the highway.
  17. OceanStWx
    Yeah, once we were moving horizontal it was a very smooth ride, but the takeoff threw my stomach for a loop. For a split second I was worried I was going to be one of those people grabbing the barf bag. We don't toss.
  18. OceanStWx
    Mix 'em together and it's like a game of Russian roulette when you jump in.
  19. OceanStWx
    It's actually a really odd sensation taking off. I'm used to flying on a plane, but a vertical take off felt really strange (Maui to Molokai). Tried to do a second flight when I bought my wife a surprise tour on our honeymoon (below) but they cancelled on us because one of their helicopters was down for maintenance.
  20. OceanStWx
    Can already see it on satellite down most of the northern Connecticut River Valley. That's pretty early in the night for that.
  21. OceanStWx
    Bouncing that radio signal from the far side of the moon.
  22. OceanStWx
    Maple Hollow says hold my beer.
  23. OceanStWx
    Just ask @ORH_wxman about the Gun Hill effect.
  24. OceanStWx
    Shit rolls downhill.
  25. OceanStWx
    I was going to do a stone walkway to the front door which will tear up part of the front anyway. Now I can start over when that’s done.
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