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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    March 1, 2021 62 mph from the NW. Before that, the October 2020 derecho (70 mph). They had another 60+ from a thunderstorm in August 2020. And before that February 25, 2019 65 mph from the WNW. All of these are WNW or NW wind directions. Hmm...
  2. OceanStWx
    Back to back posts.
  3. OceanStWx
    MWN
  4. OceanStWx
    Interior I would think is more "standard gusty" for a nor'easter but currently not thinking headline worthy. It's really that surge of wind with the meso-low. Once that passes it will more of a steady strong wind gust regime. But I could definitely see a couple hour period where intensity picks up as that feature slings west.
  5. OceanStWx
    That's a nasty run. 5+ rain and 70 knot gusts for the Cape/Islands. I think so, but the grids are mine now and I can do whatever I want with them. I honestly think if those numbers were in knots I would like the forecast better. I think Seacoast will need a wind headline almost certainly, and PWM just shy of advisory would be a fair forecast right now.
  6. OceanStWx
    Why? It would still be 2-4" rain and windy.
  7. OceanStWx
    If Kev hits 50, CT is going to have power issues for sure.
  8. OceanStWx
    fACKed
  9. OceanStWx
    Even though it's a max wave height, it makes good conceptual sense. When we issue storm watches/warnings there should be 20 foot significant wave heights in the forecast. Max waves are typically double the significant wave height. A 20 ft wave forecast should get you in the 40s for max possible waves.
  10. OceanStWx
    Surge forecast is pretty wild. ETSS is nearly 4 ft at Scituate. That's big.
  11. OceanStWx
    Late morning looks sneaky for some of the hills just above valley locations. Like pretty isothermal around freezing above 500 ft off the deck. Primary lift region is a little warm, so we're not talking serious accumulation but enough to stoke the weenie fires.
  12. OceanStWx
    Functionally the LLJ develops in a similar location and strength as 12z, so I agree that sensible weather probably isn't much different.
  13. OceanStWx
    Honestly that's better analysis than I see with some folks tossing around Euro wind gust maps.
  14. OceanStWx
    FYP
  15. OceanStWx
    It's more or less forecast to be warm core from about Chesapeake Bay's latitude. The Euro simulated IR even looks like it tries to develop the old ring of convection in the center of the occlusion a la
  16. OceanStWx
    Plus there are a number of ways the formatter can generate that text. It may be the average winds in the entire watch area, or it may use a moderated max gust where it only takes part of your peak wind gust forecast, etc. But the 10-20 mph doesn't look great in that text product, IMO.
  17. OceanStWx
    Their leads have all been there since I was in college 15 years ago, and at least 5 of their 7 mets grew up and/or went to college in New England.
  18. OceanStWx
    Technically speaking, a watch is 50% confidence while the forecast ("wind gusts up to 45 mph") is the most likely outcome. So while it's not ideal for the forecast to not match criteria of the headline, it is possible.
  19. OceanStWx
    I only use the median when it shows a more exciting number. But yes, in this case it tells a lot about last evening's model runs when compared to the mean.
  20. OceanStWx
    I was going to say, I think it's dead. I had to use the NAEFS situational awareness table now. It's not as pretty.
  21. OceanStWx
  22. OceanStWx
    When does NHC name it?
  23. OceanStWx
    Well if it were a 90 knot 925 mb jet I would easily take half that value as a gust to the bank.
  24. OceanStWx
    FWIW, the NBM has a mean around 3.8" for FIT but a median of 4.7", so there are actually quite a lot of pieces of guidance (much like individual EPS members) that are real soakers.
  25. OceanStWx
    U wind anomalies FTW.
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