OceanStWx

June 2025?

Looks like at least FWD and LZK.

Even the 60% and hatched for wind makes it really tough. And tornadoes, forget about it. That's 15 years worth of 30% tornado probabilities. The only way one of those contours gets introduced in New England will be if SPC gets hyperlocal on their outlooks.

You're both right? 75th percentile forecast for BDL is 78, 90th 81. So somewhere around 1 in 4 or 1 in 10 you expect temps could be warmer. But there is way more bust potential on the low side than on the high side of consensus (73). 10th percentile is 58 thanks to the backdoor potential.

Hey @Ginx snewx, that's a halfway decent mini supercell just north of you.

52 dBZ to 12,000 ft down in CT. Has to be something frozen falling out of that. Where's Wiz??

Just running back my (very) short period of record at the new house and my top months for snowfall have been Dec 2020 (25.5"), Dec 2019 (25.3"), Jan 2019 (21.0"), Jan 2022 (18.5"), and Nov 2018 (15.9"). Making November a winter month again.

43" is my backyard, but GYX is only at 44". So it's been pretty disastrous for the WFO. The only worse season since the office moved here was actually last year. GYX should have just over 80" by now.

43.1" is pretty brutal and feels like a D+, but considering the blizzard (legit around here) I'm going to want to give it a C-. Seriously, that blizzard makes me want to include it as 70, 80, 90% of the winter grade.

This is real cold. None of that Maple Hollow stuff.

I'd say the new guys suck, but I'm not even new anymore.

Yeah, all the radar is "seeing" is targets with a velocity which could be clouds as well as precip. So as long as the radar "sees" something it can estimate a wind speed.

There's actually been research about both velocity and QPE coverage by radars, and the bigger hole locally is around EEN.

CXX for all it's siting issues is actually in a great location for the VAD and upslope snow. Like GYX is relatively useless for what is going on at Pittsburg.

You're looking at the velocity aziumuth display (VAD) from KCXX. It's an attempt by the radar to estimate horizontal wind over time at different heights above the radar. You look back in time to the left and height increases as you go up.

On a sunny day I'm already thinking of switching the heat pumps over to cooling during the day when I'm on midnights. Can't stand the bedroom creeping up to 72 degrees.

"GYX-Short Term Forecaster: BOX...Kevin says hi."

I thought with his prominence he upslopes in every direction?

It's the default setting to be honest. There are arguments for and against. One number (it shouldn't be to the tenths though) is just the middle and most likely forecast. But ranges show uncertainty better. The problem is ours aren't dynamic like Ryan's can be. So we only can ever say 8-12" or 12-18", never 10-14".

Yeah, 48 hours lead time is a LONG time for a warning. I tend to think it's too much time and the public often gets confused when the snow is supposed to start. Also there are plenty of events that slide away or cut north inside the last 48 hours. We're always confident...until we're not. That's honestly the argument most times. As far as hype goes, yes. But the timing of issuing I don't much care who lives there, I mostly try and hit high traffic news times. Before they wake up, after dinner, before the 11 pm news, etc. CAR just happened to opt for 10 am today which made us stick out. We wanted to see all the 12z guidance before making a southern extent warning call.

Just because they are a day ahead doesn't mean it's correct. Too often WFOs (ours included) thinks there is more confidence in an outcome than there actually is. There is considerable boom or bust potential on the southern edge of the heavy snow. On average the Northeast WFOs rarely miss an event (10-20% of the time) but false alarm (i.e. issue warnings when it doesn't happen) 30 to 40% of the time. In my opinion waiting an extra 12 hours can really improve the second number while not hurting the first. And it's not like a watch doesn't already let people know it's going to snow.

It was not. I was long term that day, but obviously had one eye on the short term. I saw the 06z GFS rip almost 5 for PWM and thought WTF. So I checked around on Bufkit and there were a couple sneaky crosshair type signatures. These are the sneaky events that I wish we had more time to do internal reviews of.

I'm thinking less, more showery this time. Maybe can sneak something better south of here.

PWM only measured 0.4" too, so they were really close to rain just 10ish miles to my south. I was near freezing so everything stuck to the trees. Maybe like 1 inch more and we'd have had some power issues.