OceanStWx

I picked up Fire and Blood (book it was based on) 3 weeks ago and thought no chance do I finish in time for the premier, but it was really good and I couldn't put it down.

One of the cases where dual-pol may actually overestimate QPE by guessing tropical rainfall for too many pixels, but just blows legacy out of the water by being dynamic like that. There are several gauges over 6 and 7 inches (too many to discount in my opinion), and that's way closer to dual-pol than legacy's 1-2 inches.

Not sure what you've done to your hydrangeas, but I have 2 inches less than your area this summer and my full sun hydrangeas are full and flowering and I haven't touched them with a hose.

Can't be his place. I hope he got permission from his neighbor to go take pics of their garden.

It's a very tropical style rain. Low echo centroid, with much of the cell below the freezing level.

Best severe of the season.

Louis right now at home

Just invert the colors for a snow map during a SWFE.

Halloween Ale or bust.

Just @ me next time.

GYX is actually participating in an experiment with a new visualization tool, mainly for support services, but I think it's going to have pretty large forecasting impacts too. The website allows you to play with the so called Grand Ensemble (GEFS, EPS, CMCEPS), including adding or removing members, comparing differences, etc. But you can also view individual cluster groups (pants tent stuff). For instance here, clusters 4 and 5 are the wet ones (12z run) and both feature higher than mean heights across northern Maine and the Maritimes. i.e. you increase the gradient and resulting easterly flow into New England.

Deep easterly flow is famously dry in New England. My quibble is definitely with his "always", as convection will induce a circulation of its own that can either enhance or diminish moisture transport. The circulation will be counter-clockwise around the convective feature, so a SW/NE oriented line of convection would tend to shunt moisture east. SE/NW oriented would do the opposite.

Mid season form already.

Stopped to grab a pizza to bring to work and lo and behold.

It raced through Casco Bay but looks like it's getting hung up on Lava Rock. Almost like the Tolland Massif, it has to bend around rather than go over.

But was it a hurricane?

In my younger days I thought it would be a terrible place to be a forecaster because the weather never changes, but in some sense it's more difficult because everything is so subtle.

Pretty good composite snow map TBH. I would maybe extended the mid level magic back towards Stowe however.

I see a 4.74", so no doubt somebody got 5.

There's a good correlation to secondary and tertiary rounds of heavy rain leading to flash flooding too. First round primes the pump, the second has nowhere to go but run off.

Whole month's worth of rain washing down the storm drain.

Nice cell just south of Saratoga. Rocking 50 dBZ over 40,000 ft. Big boy core.

Sending the temperature police now.

FWIW, PWM set their consecutive 80+ record with 16 days as of yesterday (today makes 17).

Mow down the forests and plant corn and soy everywhere.