OceanStWx

Good time for a reminder that the FV3 continues to have a cold bias, especially with increasing lead time. In other words, the cold bias gets worse as you move towards the end of the run. Unfortunately something we're going to have to mentally QC out for the time being until they can upgrade/fix it (but GEFS moving to FV3 is a priority first).

It was wild to be sweating it out in near 90 degree heat at a wedding with brown foliage halfway up the hills around Beacon, NY.

4 weeks ago some of these same places were experiencing record heat.

We actually have a lot of trees locally dumping their leaves already without much of a splash of color. My streets trees have given up most of their leaves now, but they did have a good initial burst of red before fading quickly.

Drove through your 'hood this weekend on the way to the Hudson Valley and it's all very orange/brown.

GTFO with Kuchera Basically at all NWS offices the forecasters will create grids for temps, PoP, QPF, snow ratio. From that you get Wx grids, and from that you can determine where snow you be output in a snow grid. You can also choose how you want to display it temporally. A one hour grid will produce a more realistic snow fall than a 3 or 6 hour grid that has parameters averaged over that time. It is up to the forecaster whether they want to hand draw grids, pick a model of the day, or use some form of a blend. Personally I use a blended approach, and then tweak for things like local effects or forecast position of banding. We have grids every hour with thousands of grid points, so we rarely are editing just one gridpoint. Rather we try and lock down the base grids and everything sort of fall out from there (i.e. if your temp, dewpoint, PoP, QPF, snow ratio are good, then your Wx and snowfall should be good too). We could automate a lot of that, but you would lose local knowledge and QC. Like we don't want to blend GFS 2 m temps in a damming scenario, but the computer doesn't know that.

Only one day has been warmer than yesterday at PWM this late in the season. 90 on 9/26/07 And we tied a record yesterday (89) set in 1895 when the thermometer was on the top of some tar roof in Old Port.

My hydrangeas are still flowering!

We might've meh'd our way to some damage in SW NH. High shear/low CAPE will get you every time. May not be widespread, but can't sleep on it either.

It's actually fascinating how it progresses through the year. The longer we continue without a frost/freeze the worse it becomes because the number of infected mosquitoes grows (e.g. mosquito bites (usually) a bird, bird becomes infected, allowing more mosquitoes to get infected if they bite the bird, and so on).

I could sit on Church Street in the middle of January if you feed me enough DIPAs.

I disagree. When I swam with blacktip reef sharks, their fin was no bigger than my foot. At that size fin would leave me feeling that I have a fighting chance to leave an encounter with my foot still attached.

Congrats Bermuda?

POD FAR 0.911 0.371 Stats for GYX that winter. Lotta false alarms *cough*St. Valentine's Day massacre*cough*

Yeah I split a rental aerator with my neighbor ($45 each) plus the seed and otherwise all it cost we was a full day of working in the yard. Currently growing better in some places than others (sure could use a good rain) but at least it's taking. Unfortunately the weedy grasses are also growing fast too, so I'm going to be pretty overgrown if I wait a full two weeks to mow.

First sub-zero at Maple Hollow?

Maybe we can snag the follow up wave down by Cuba around hour 814.

Good, now I have some goals to slantstick my way towards.

Hmm, that may explain the itchy arms after the last couple of weeks of yard care.

Interesting meso on the tail end of that line in eastern IA. I'd hazard a guess it's tied to the outflow from the previous line to the NE.

I drove a few of those stakes into the ground around it (per the local nursery) and I planned to throw some compost down when I winterize all my plants in a couple months. Hopefully everything takes off nicely in the spring.

I mean I don't think it counts if I only lived through Scooter running naked through the streets does it? I could add the 10/18/09 snow at Foxboro coupled with the 59-0 thrashing of Tennessee.

My poor maple is one tough SOB. Maybe it's not bugs or disease after all though, the nursery is wondering if the contractor buried it too deep and that's what killed the crown.

It's true that every admin turns over the majority of political appointees to align with their ideology. I have no qualms about that. What I have noticed lately though is that a historically non-partisan, science agency (NOAA) seems to be increasingly run by politcos who don't have the larger view in mind as they make decisions. Ideally NOAA outlasts the Trump administration, so senior leadership needs to think beyond just 4 or 8 years. That's why I'm upset about the recent NOAA statement. A short term "win" against the NWS (which is crazy because nobody from the NWS was against anything/anyone in the first place), is a long term "loss" for people who rely on trusted weather forecasts.

2.6 billion or so. There were trees down over roughly a third of all of New England.