OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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62 mph at PWM Ripping on the edge of the dry slot
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IOSN3 70 knots peak wind
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48 knots at PWM. Considering this is an independent data point from my study, I'm really happy with the output of 47.6 knots. Even if PWM goes in a little higher over the next hour.
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Weeeeee!
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PYM 53 kt peak wind.
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I'm maybe more impressed with sustained 34 knots at BOS.
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If they do, you should consult a doctor. 57 knots at Conimicut Light.
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I'd say Kevin's out with the chainsaw, but it's well past his bedtime.
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Gimme a 45-55 kt gust at PWM and I'll be ecstatic.
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If eastern MA is still meh at 06z then maybe we can talk bust on the LLJ, but until then we hold our ground.
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BOX is doing part of the Service Life Extension Program (SLEP) and once the radar is down they can't bring it back up, it's quite literally in pieces. So you are stuck with neighboring radars of the TDWR south of Boston if you have access via RadarScope or something like that.
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The downslope signal has been strong for a few days now.
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Rookie move. IOSN3 FTW.
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69 knots. Nice.
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How do you do on downslope winds? I think some parts of western NH will rip with those.
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I think there’s a threat that the triple point features enough of a window for surface based convection to include a marginal. It won’t be several supercells forming across the outlook area, but one storm that will be a threat kind of thing.
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I'll have to check it out later. I'm crashing after mids. Pants off, dance off at work tonight.
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The HRRR definitely has traceable features that have associated wind maxes within the larger LLJ. So there will likely be some convective elements that get ingested into the system that will have locally higher wind potential.
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No we don't. We are already paying for WeatherBell, we aren't going to get approval for WeatherModels too.
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Your window is like 10 pm to 4 am or so I think. HREF is painting quite a bullish picture for QPF for the upslope in NH and VT. Even taking 60-80% of QPF is like 3-4".
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Looks a little sting-y
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In an ideal world the independent analysis will show that the first guess is within 10 knots 100% of the time (as the study I modeled this off of found). Hopefully it's even better than that.
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The good news is it all makes sense. The higher your wind and lapse rates the higher the potential wind gust, and the higher the 925 depth the lower your potential wind gust (inverse relationship there).
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Spits out 50 knots around 12z. I'm pretty happy my equation will actually produce HWW criteria. My first attempts really fell short on the high end events.
