OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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Just a time range thing I think. CIPS only has 24 hour snowfall on there, which cuts off southern areas. But if you go back 12 hours you cut off northern areas.
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Definitely progged to be more robust at 500/300 Sunday than 1/4/03 was, but the mid levels back in 2003 were a fair analog match for Sunday.
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1/4/03
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12/7/03
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FV3? It's really just analogs based on the upper air pattern of the GFS at that forecast hour, so in general much better than an MSLP or QPF prog from the GFS.
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Mostly it shows you the "potential" of a certain upper air pattern. It's not like this system has potential only up to advisory snowfall, it has the potential to really turn into something meaty. Of course the 10th percentile (think of it as "at least this much snow") is 0, so there are wide goalposts. Median is respectable for early Dec though:
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It's the 90th percentile of all analog matches. So 90% of all analogs had this much snow or less. It's kind of a measure of the upper limit of the system according to analogs.
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Thanks. My wife is not a huge fan of this particular shift in general, let alone on a holiday. Me, I'm thankful for the 90th percentile CIPS analog guidance:
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Might as well have a little fun if I have to work the holiday. It can't be all turkey, beers, and football at GYX (I'm kidding Louis).
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Yep. Sensitivity was suggesting the ridging had more of a hand in how far north it gets, while the upper low was both how far north and how far west.
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Kind of a bummer that the ensemble sensitivity site seems to be down (hasn't run since 11/26). But this storm was day 6 by then so it does offer some insight. Lots of the uncertainty downstream related to the building ridge across AK and the cut off that meanders across the US (currently along the CA coastline). That relevant patterns were forecast to really blossom today, so this 12z suite was kind of an important run in the model evolution.
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Please no. That means everyone will upgrade tomorrow night and I'll be left rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic because I'm stuck with warnings.
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Wasn't Colucci "high pressure's are sexy too"?
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We've all moved on. And in like 10 days or so we can start to punt December too!
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Your grid point is a tough one. I think I checked it out once, like 1000 ft of elevation change in just that one 1x1 km grid box.
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You can (or should) with most paid subscriptions. But this is a good point when it comes to ensemble forecasting as well. The mean tells you something, but the spread or postage stamps can be very instructive too. Even with a 51 member ensemble a big bomb or two is enough to skew the mean.
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Well the Turnpike north of WVL may as well be the end of the Earth as far as I know it.
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Best way to get over your lack of snow is to get a trof under you?
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Euro got a little stronger in the mid levels. It's a good look.
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It does mean a larger area of advisories for trace freezing rain.
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GFS seems to be trying to make it a more compact system. Given that the track difference between it and the Euro is not that large, the placement of mid level forcing sure is wildly different. Euro is practically in Canada, GFS hugs just inland from the coast. I'd think a blend of that is closer to reality.
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While I think the clown maps are mostly a joke, they can be instructive for trends I think. And the fact that the bigger snow totals don't start popping until it's in the CAR CWA tell me we may have mixing issues in the GYX area.
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I think he was talking about North Haven.
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Maybe I'm going to light the fuse tonight.
