OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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I'll be curious to see what if anything falls out of post-event review, because I'm pretty on board with the messaging was awkward with this one. Seems like we would have been better off if headlines didn't exist at all and we just told people what would happen.
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As of 1 pm I had 7.2" total, 6.1" of that since midnight.
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Round one 0.8” I feel better about round two.
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I have no reason to discount those observers. We don’t train them, but they are contracted by MHT and have been pretty consistent in the past.
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SNINCR 4/8 at MHT
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Yeah but BOS only had 0.1"
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Just issued an SPS for that 1"+/hr stuff.
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Yeah, models were forecasting that WAA punch to really slow down as the mid level lows start developing and the SW flow shuts off.
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That feels pretty wintry doesn't it??
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The real thump is with that stuff moving in now. I do have some questions as to how far north it makes it, but our warning area looks pretty solid.
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Kevin with the freezer door open and fans blowing out, anything to hold off the warming.
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But I'm one of them and that's what really matters.
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Still tasty from PWM on NE. Just not as good as prior runs. Still not totally confident in where this places out yet.
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I do too. I think the Monadnocks could squeeze out some fair snow in the "lull" thanks to upsloping.
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If someone can get in on good WAA tonight and also banding Tuesday it could be big totals.
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It is. The shortwave over IA may be what enhances precip Monday afternoon. The thing over Erie is Tuesday.
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Actually the round 2 shortwave is farther east than that. It still needs to rotate around the north side of the upper low. Just a tick north of Lake Erie at the moment.
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Touchy. I was posting it because that's what I feel like at the moment, walking in the door and hitting the "adjust up" button.
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Advisory is simply 3" in 12 hours. So the thinking would be no 12 hour period sees more than 3" for you. Personally, I would argue that 6" drawn out over 24+ hours will be impactful enough to warrant one.
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I mean the GFS would suggest the spoke of vorticity pinwheels around the low, shoots through the Carolinas and rides NNE to a position off Cape Cod by early Tue. That's the forcing that helps the low take off. Just think about trying to model that man.
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Eventually it replaces the NAM, ARW, and NMM, and then the HREF is run with just HRRR members and you can get a true ensemble spread. It's going to be a pretty good system once we get there.
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They are actually making real significant improvements to that model quarter over quarter. There's always an experimental version running testing out those new features. I know recent ones include improved cloud forecasts. The latest experimental improves ptype. It's replacing the NAM eventually, so wait until it goes out 60 hours!
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It looks like NCEP guidance is sensitive to the ridging ahead of the kicker shortwave. If those heights are lower it gives more room for our storm to amplify. That's the biggest signal I see from the Stony Brook stuff.
