OceanStWx

With the caveat that ORH is missing the years you mentioned I have the dates for first measurable (long term average not normal): BTV 11/7 ORH and CON 11/18 PWM 11/19 BDL 11/27 BOS 11/29 PVD 12/1

You can already see the comments. "This was a massive upgrade to the GFS, these are set ups where it shines!"

A strong argument for Kevin's favorite type of forecasting. Probabilistic.

Look at Scott's example for ORD. If those stations were airing GFS snowfall maps, they just got halved or worse for tonight's broadcast.

Obviously some of those improvements are "cosmetic" to an extent. I mean the big selling point of the GFS was that you could get it 4 times a day! Well now you can get the Euro that often too. And hourly data. So while the skill isn't necessarily improving rapidly, the utility of the model is.

Or it forces EC to improve faster than they already are. The weather enterprise is undeniably better off when you have more than one elite model.

I could live with the GFS not coming out before lunchtime if it was as good as the Euro.

Yeah, this is going to be the proverbial turning of the cruise ship. It doesn't happen overnight, but at least we're moving in a better direction.

It's 4th behind the Euro, Ukie, and CMC on days 3-5 500 height correlation.

That roll out was fundamentally flawed. Lots of pomp and circumstance, but there wasn't much actual improvement to model performance. The guts were what was transformed, for future performance improvements. That is not at all how the press releases sounded. Never mind the stuff that actually broke with the transition, like the low/mid level cold bias.

Finally finished up my stable/neutral wind study. If I hold the 925 wind, and surface to 925 depth and lapse rate as independent variables to the surface wind gust as the dependent I get a correlation of 77%. R squared is about 0.60, so 60% of the variance in gusts are explained by those 3 variables. The regression equation wasn't too bad: gust = 31.9 + (0.5 * 925 wind) + (0.9 * lapse rate) - (0.05 * depth) Ran it against an independent data set (2006-2008, study compiled from 2010-2019). I found that my equation was within 2 knots roughly a quarter of the time, 5 knots just under 50% of the time, and within 10 knots 84% of the time. I'm pretty happy with those results, especially for a first guess on the forecast. Edit: All numbers for PWM (surface)/GYX (aloft)

Congrats Bermuda?

Yeah I split a rental aerator with my neighbor ($45 each) plus the seed and otherwise all it cost we was a full day of working in the yard. Currently growing better in some places than others (sure could use a good rain) but at least it's taking. Unfortunately the weedy grasses are also growing fast too, so I'm going to be pretty overgrown if I wait a full two weeks to mow.

Hmm, that may explain the itchy arms after the last couple of weeks of yard care.

I mean I don't think it counts if I only lived through Scooter running naked through the streets does it? I could add the 10/18/09 snow at Foxboro coupled with the 59-0 thrashing of Tennessee.

It's true that every admin turns over the majority of political appointees to align with their ideology. I have no qualms about that. What I have noticed lately though is that a historically non-partisan, science agency (NOAA) seems to be increasingly run by politcos who don't have the larger view in mind as they make decisions. Ideally NOAA outlasts the Trump administration, so senior leadership needs to think beyond just 4 or 8 years. That's why I'm upset about the recent NOAA statement. A short term "win" against the NWS (which is crazy because nobody from the NWS was against anything/anyone in the first place), is a long term "loss" for people who rely on trusted weather forecasts.

2.6 billion or so. There were trees down over roughly a third of all of New England.

Some of the RGB satellite products will also show high ozone concentration air in that zone too.

Yes, and often you will see Cu develop on the nose of the jet as the increased convergence near the surface forces upward motion.

Definitely has that look.

I'm pretty comfortable with Bob, 7/23/08 RI tornado, and Feb '13 blizzard. While I missed the best parts of the storms October 2011 and Sandy for the shear anomaly were pretty cool.

That's honestly what the bulk of the regional rain is going to be. Tropical moisture being drawn into the approaching shortwave. The main TC shield rain is going to whiff everyone but James.

Mid level magic. Every damn time.

I cut our QPF in half on the evening update. LavaRock threw his remote through the TV.