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MGorse

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by MGorse

  1. MGorse
    I have some concern regarding the east-west FGEN zone that the guidance is showing. I have seen this end up being a bit farther north than what the model consensus shows, plus SLR's tend to be higher. We shall see.
  2. MGorse
    Technically it is upgraded. Watches cannot be downgraded, just upgraded or cancelled. Just FYI.
  3. MGorse
    The blue area is 5 inches. Increased from 4 inches several years ago. The red area is 6 inches. This is for warning criteria.
  4. MGorse
    I came across this explanation: The Kuchera ratio can be especially useful when temperatures are close to freezing, as it can correctly reduce snowfall estimates below 10:1. However, the Kuchera ratio is not perfect, as the true snow-to-liquid ratio (SLR) depends on many factors, including cloud and precipitation physics.
  5. MGorse
    Quite the wide swath of snow as well, although it is still showing a zone of heavier snow near and south of Philly.
  6. MGorse
    You know you want to look at it.
  7. MGorse
    From what I have read, the NWS chose the FV3 as the new GFS's (and GEFS) dynamical core in part because it uses less computer resources than other options.
  8. MGorse
    Just measured 0.4 inches. Just some flurries now and temperature down to 31.
  9. MGorse
    Snowing pretty good here and it did not take long for the grass, mulch and roofs to get a coating of snow. Temperature down to 32.
  10. MGorse
    I had to search some but hopefully this is what you are looking for… https://vlab.noaa.gov/documents/6609493/7858320/NBMv4.1NWPMatrix.pdf
  11. MGorse
    The NBM is time lagged. If there is a notable pattern change in the guidance and even a trend then the NBM will take time to catch up. Closer in time, the NBM incorporates the high resolution guidance which can lead to a noticeable change in the output. More info about the NBM is available here: https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm
  12. MGorse
    Just extrapolate it.
  13. MGorse
    Yup something to watch as the NAM has an area of 850 mb FGEN strengthening some as it shifts east.
  14. MGorse
    I see what you did there.
  15. MGorse
    And you were not the only one at PHI to push the envelope on alerting. We have made some progress on that but still work to be done. Not an easy task either when staffing keeps changing.
  16. MGorse
    That inconsistency has been noticed by some NWS field offices, but I am not aware of where that stands. In my opinion if something like this NBM stuff is referenced in things like AFDs then some added info should be included to provide more context of that data. The deterministic NBM is bias corrected (60 days I believe) which results in a lag especially during pattern changes. Still not all that sure why a blend of models has a bias correction applied.
  17. MGorse
    The NBM is not the greatest guidance many times and I will leave it at that.
  18. MGorse
    You want to come back? We are still short staffed!
  19. MGorse
    Perhaps the ball would then be reported as a massive hailstone.
  20. MGorse
    Nothing like a Spring evening thunderstorm, oh wait it is 12/31. Happy New Year everyone!
  21. MGorse
    It is like a Spring night out there.
  22. MGorse
    Umm, sure.
  23. MGorse
    The 00z run will probably have nothing.
  24. MGorse
    Just lovely out there this morning. I hope everyone had a nice Christmas.
  25. MGorse
    Have not really seen any yet.
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