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MGorse

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by MGorse

  1. MGorse
    Nice mood flakes here but no accumulation.
  2. MGorse
    Rain is needed though given the ongoing drought.
  3. MGorse
    Come on now, that computer back in the day was sweet!
  4. MGorse
    You can lock that in!
  5. MGorse
    Not bad at all.
  6. MGorse
    Less than your anticipated 0.5 inches.
  7. MGorse
    The 0.3 inches of snow I got vanished rapidly by mid-morning. Looks like some of the guidance that was hinting at a bit more snow (1 to near 2 inches) across parts of eastern PA panned out.
  8. MGorse
    I had a period of snow grains a little while ago while shoveling and it put down a fresh coating. Came in and looked at the radar and was like well now. Snowing decently under that as it moves my way?
  9. MGorse
    Yup, that certainly did not pan out.
  10. MGorse
    We try our best.
  11. MGorse
    1.8 inches at PHL as of 1 PM.
  12. MGorse
    My bad, hit the wrong button.
  13. MGorse
    At least some of the models have been showing that as the precipitation shield initially runs into a much drier air mass. It will saturate, give it time.
  14. MGorse
    It is possible, but it also may just tighten the northern gradient from snow to no snow.
  15. MGorse
    I have some concern regarding the east-west FGEN zone that the guidance is showing. I have seen this end up being a bit farther north than what the model consensus shows, plus SLR's tend to be higher. We shall see.
  16. MGorse
    Technically it is upgraded. Watches cannot be downgraded, just upgraded or cancelled. Just FYI.
  17. MGorse
    The blue area is 5 inches. Increased from 4 inches several years ago. The red area is 6 inches. This is for warning criteria.
  18. MGorse
    I came across this explanation: The Kuchera ratio can be especially useful when temperatures are close to freezing, as it can correctly reduce snowfall estimates below 10:1. However, the Kuchera ratio is not perfect, as the true snow-to-liquid ratio (SLR) depends on many factors, including cloud and precipitation physics.
  19. MGorse
    Quite the wide swath of snow as well, although it is still showing a zone of heavier snow near and south of Philly.
  20. MGorse
    You know you want to look at it.
  21. MGorse
    From what I have read, the NWS chose the FV3 as the new GFS's (and GEFS) dynamical core in part because it uses less computer resources than other options.
  22. MGorse
    Just measured 0.4 inches. Just some flurries now and temperature down to 31.
  23. MGorse
    Snowing pretty good here and it did not take long for the grass, mulch and roofs to get a coating of snow. Temperature down to 32.
  24. MGorse
    I had to search some but hopefully this is what you are looking for… https://vlab.noaa.gov/documents/6609493/7858320/NBMv4.1NWPMatrix.pdf
  25. MGorse
    The NBM is time lagged. If there is a notable pattern change in the guidance and even a trend then the NBM will take time to catch up. Closer in time, the NBM incorporates the high resolution guidance which can lead to a noticeable change in the output. More info about the NBM is available here: https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm
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