MGorse

What a freaking mess! If heavier rates can hold on longer that could be enough to keep the warm layer colder and thus hang onto snow longer.

It is not easy reaching blizzard criteria. In this case, the GFS, NAM and NAMnest soundings in the Lehigh Valley do show some wind however it is not ideal mixing. I am not sold on actual blizzard conditions occurring.

Meaning not occasional gusts. I think the idea is the gusts have to be occurring often and not just here and there.

It is sustained or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater.

It depends on whether it is planar/flat or radial ice. Forecasts are planar/flat ice accretion which is less than radial ice. For trees and power lines, it is the greater radial ice accretion that causes the problems (generally above 0.25 inches of accretion).

Just ice from freezing rain.

Looking at some of the model forecast soundings, some of the guidance is showing freezing rain or even plain rain (depending on location) however the sounding looks more like sleet. Model snowfall graphics typically include sleet as snow and sleet are counted together. The FRAM graphic above is strictly ice accretion from freezing rain. The Kuchera snowfall maps be careful with as it only uses the maximum temperature aloft to calculate snowfall. The 10:1 ratio maps also use with caution as that ratio is not usually representative during a storm as the ratios certainly change up and down as the storm evolves.

Looks to me more like snow pellets or sleet with that isothermal to just a tad above freezing layer aloft.

Not just those. This is an older image, but gives a great summary of the NBM inputs.

That is straight from the NBM guidance.

We finally switched to the new format/slides as well.

It is going to be a long rest of the week!

Snow on snow for many, not bad!

Impressive!

A total of 1.04 inches of rain.

Everyone ready for the rain and wind?

Usually those old reports are removed from the PNS going forward and especially for the final one (we received something like 500 reports during and immediately following the storm!). There were some issues however with the software we use during the Sunday storm, plus there was a newer Meteorologist gathering the reports and issuing LSRs and PNSs. Also, thanks for the kind words in your second paragraph. We try our best but are certainly not perfect.

Yeah that report and probably a few others should have been removed from the final PNS. Just remember though, reports in PNSs and LSRs are all considered preliminary (not official).

Parts of Philly did.

Total at PHL is 4.2 inches. Probably a little low.

My backyard early this morning.

A total of 6 inches of snow at my place. The bottom layer on my driveway, sidewalks and deck was like concrete.

Given some of the model guidance 700-850 mb FGEN, there may be multiple heavier narrow bands embedded within the widespread snow shield. These could be somewhat transient though.

A few sprinkles here a little while ago.

That wording is tied to the hazard. In this case, a warning.