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Everything posted by MGorse
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Yeah I noticed that a couple of weeks ago. I am not sure when they returned to KYW.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
MGorse replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
Looks like the 12z GFS did not go way north. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
MGorse replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
You mean those maps are not a lock?! -
Overall a period of deeper lift within the dendritic snow growth zone (boosting the fluff factor), thermal column cooling once the snow started (initially surface dew points were in the low to mid teens), and going with higher snow to liquid ratios (about 12:1 to 17:1). Looks like we were on the high side particularly for some areas near and north of I-78, and on the low side across parts of northeast MD into southern DE. Overall to me this was not a classic norlun trough as there was no real heavier focused band of snow aligned parallel to the surface/inverted trough. There was synoptic lift that in conjunction with the surface trough resulted in a wider area of 4-6 inches of snow. I hope everyone enjoyed the snow. I will enjoy my weekend off as it has been a long week.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
MGorse replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
Those warnings were issued where the latest NWS forecast snowfall totals meet criteria, not the models. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
MGorse replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
LOL. Nope, not my decision. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
MGorse replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
Looks like she was showing their 'Fox Model' which is probably not their actual current forecast totals, for what its worth. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
MGorse replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
The NWS currently does not have 6-8 inches in the forecast. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
MGorse replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
That will be reviewed again during today, but yes definitely looks like a good setup for a period of blowing and drifting snow. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
MGorse replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
What is a 'blowing snow statement'? -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
MGorse replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
Amounts are no higher than 4-5 inches currently in the forecast (map plots as 4-6 inches). -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
MGorse replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
True but it can end up crossing advisory versus warning criteria. And the WSW product has 2-4 inches but the graphic has an area of 4-6 inches. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
MGorse replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
A note regarding the NWS total snowfall graphic. If the forecast amounts just cross over a whole number it bumps to the next range. For example, an area of 4.1 to 4.5 inches will be plotted as 4-6 inches. In this case, the forecast actually is not for 5-6 inches. -
LOL. Well you did lower your earlier measurement.
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Still seems a bit high.
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2.1? In Media, PA?
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You need to work on making that happen then.
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Do you have a wing plow on that?
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I work at NWS Mount Holly. When we run our late afternoon climate, the daily snowfall is through 18z.
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That may have been the total through 18z (1 PM).
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The snow depth in the climate report is at 12z (7 AM).
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Squeezed out a tenth of an inch of snow early this afternoon, then a cold nasty rain.
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Oh come on, you miss it.