Alfoman

GFS first taketh and wrongeth, then GFS giveth

Lord Almighty (not done yet either)

GFS has not wavered from this trend in 24 hours...

Even if we miss out on the bulk of the coastal, we only need a few tenths of an inch of QPF to really generate some fun/meaningful powder given the arctic air being pulled in behind the storm

We got the CMC/E, ICON, and GFS/GEFS to improve run-over-run, no need to be perfect D5 as we very clearly found out this past week. Lots of ways to make this work even on a smaller scale than a HECS/BECS event like the 6z euro

That's why I caution this is delicate setup even if we eventually do get the low bombing off the coast at some point. Those smaller differences up top translate into huge surface-level shifts

Boston has a chance to clear a top 10 storm for them, Boston to NYC could clear 3-4 inches of sleet when its all said and done, Crippling ice from Viriginia to Texas - very memorable storm overall. Pictures out of Oxford, MS are insane...

Pixie flakes in the middle of pouring sleet in DC proper...just an absolutely wild storm My hips are on fire after a long morning Jebwalk...this stuff is not an easy stroll

New Euro actually keeps the 700 mb column at 0 C or under in the district and above until between 20-21z on Sunday versus 17z on 6z suite

Euro Uptick on front thump (12z left, 6z right)

So do I but damn it do I want to see the GFS get a win here. Just would be so interesting (and on brand) to have it slow down and separate the baja energy a little more each run for it to just wildly swing towards the Euro's depiction all of a sudden within 60 hours.

For last week's storm, GFS was the model to overamplify around 60-90 hours out only to scale back some as we got closer versus Euro and CMC were way less diggy with the shortwave. A blend sounds about right

That cutoff being 30-40 miles from DC proper would be an absolute nail biting nowcast the day of the storm. Nice and easy isn't as exciting, as they say!

DC Proper loses the 850/700 mb temp profile battle from 0Z Monday to 9Z Monday but we're right on the edge of the transition line via 700 mb map starting at 18Z Sunday. We have roughly 1.2-1.3 QPF before that time and an additional .2-.3 after that. Really on the edge though by the middle of Sunday.