I find the following tends to happen:
-Gfs thermals are too warm at the onset of a storm. Toss
-Initial thump of snow is stronger than modeled. But,
-Midlevels warm up quicker than modeled. So a satisfying quick couple of inches than the ice/rain junk
-But after that is sort of a wild card. I can’t recall a recent storm that stalled/occluded like this. I’m not confident in how quickly temps crash nor the amount of precip that is around when they do. My gut says they crash quick but precip drys quicker than we hope, but I could be wrong.