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Everything posted by Sn0waddict

  1. Not great for CT but it’s just one run.
  2. I find the following tends to happen: -Gfs thermals are too warm at the onset of a storm. Toss -Initial thump of snow is stronger than modeled. But, -Midlevels warm up quicker than modeled. So a satisfying quick couple of inches than the ice/rain junk -But after that is sort of a wild card. I can’t recall a recent storm that stalled/occluded like this. I’m not confident in how quickly temps crash nor the amount of precip that is around when they do. My gut says they crash quick but precip drys quicker than we hope, but I could be wrong.
  3. Everyone with a brain knew the 18z 15 inch blob over NYC wasn’t gonna stay. It was a random band that even the HRRR couldn’t pinpoint in real time. But no reason to give up either. As I said above models are going to have a rough time pinpointing where this is going to stall and occlude.
  4. The models have no idea where to stall and occlude this storm. They won’t for some time. The only thing that you should be looking at right now is the strength of the high and the initial front end thump. Everything besides that is no where near locked. Anything is still on the table really.q
  5. Think that might not even be sorted out entirely until the initial thump is already on our doorstep.
  6. I have noticed that the RGEM AND HDRPS are way colder at the surface for the onset of the storm. Like 5+ degrees. Maybe they are on to something, though probably not. Wish the HDRP went out farther hour 48 looks sweet lol
  7. It was just a random band that no model can pinpoint until we are in the HRRR range. Wouldn’t say it caved to anything.
  8. Try living south of the Merritt , that 3’ of sleet ends up being 34f and rain lol.
  9. Welcome to the coast (well for this storm at least)It’s always fun to laugh at the inland folks who freak out over the possibility of getting one hour of sleet in between their foot plus of snow.
  10. Lol at the random heavy snow band over nyc at hr 72, that would be entertaining if it came to fruition.
  11. 18z RGEM looks nice. Good front end thump. Keep lower level cold locked in for longer too.
  12. That’s a really nice look at the end of the run. A stationary strengthening low sitting SE of LI with an expanding precipitation shield. Looks moderate to heavy to me too. Not sure how anyone could have an issue with that.
  13. What about 900-925? I believe that is where we will have the most issues.
  14. Tough time believing those maps given the track. But Euro has sort of been all over the place with this too, so I wouldn’t fret too much. Where the low retrogrades is a huge question mark still.
  15. More like it gets kicked off of a cliff.
  16. I’ll take gfs at hr 162 please.
  17. Where in northeastern PA? My fiancée had family up there, just a bunch of farmland. Good place for snow though lol
  18. Wouldn’t really say HRRR fail, it pointed out that the precip would backfill in the first place, most other models had no snow.
  19. As others have been reporting, first snowflakes of the season here.
  20. Hrrr seems to want to almost backfill a bit and give us all some light snow. radar seems to be reflecting that as well.
  21. More so people don’t care when models correct north or south with a rainstorm during the spring/summer. But in the winter a storm trend of 25 miles north can make all the difference.