Ralph Wiggum

24 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Gentlemen? You got the wrong forum bro

16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

fwiw… the days of the hits are

PDIII MECS (long duration 10-12”)

Mar 3-4 HECS (20-30 central VA, PSU fringed with 8”)

March 25 SECS (end of run, at least 6-8”)

how could a bad pattern produce that EPS Control run

Exactly! These LR models are available to the public due their accuracy. They wouldn't release them to us if there were flaws or beta testing. So there's that 

17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Lost an entire battalion in the last 24 hours.  Some turning on each other.  These are trying times. Full scale revolt simmers under the surface. Civil War?  We gotta get the few left to the promise land of PD and especially beyond.  

Will await further instruction based on your 12z pbp for the 13th and later on, lieutenant colonel @stormtracker. Please advise the remaining troops of their position. Godspeed.

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

The 23/24 still has potential but I worry about the pacific going to crap quickly. We might want to start rooting for a north trend with the 17th wave 

I dont disagree with this. It's always a gamble looking 3-6 weeks out via the weeklies etc. But with that said, even if the EPO ridge breaks, it isn't a shit the blinds with the TPV hanging under the NAO block which at least looks stable. Obviously we start needing more HL help on both sides the farther along into the waning part of winter we get. But I wouldn't fold just yet. 

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Lol.  If you went into other forums you would see others doing the same.  Allsnow.  40/70 Benchmark.  Bluewave

Maybe, but are we glazing over the next 2 weeks? Just 12 hrs ago we were tracking Feb 13, a wave on the 18, then the ideal setup for the psu baby on the 24th. The good looks advertised are upon us. I'm not getting caught up too much in what happens beyond that. Maybe we hold thru the 3rd week of Maarch or maybe this is another 10 day window, who knows. But we have trackable events showing up now. Hang in yoda, I appreciate your posts. 

2 hours ago, Duca892 said:

We are like only 30hrs away from honest to god Winter Storm Watches being issued for here in the Lehigh Valley and I can’t remember the last time we went from the beautiful progression of a Watch to a Warning. Begging this hold. Will lovingly take a nice 4-8in

Hang in there chief. RGEM just went S and E fringing the LV crew. Still 4 days out.

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I made my good faith effort. No more coddling the panic stricken here. Take it to the other thread. Y'all just getting weenies from me going forward lol.

They're dropping like flies in the main thread. Many won't make it til mid March.

Upper Bucks just got NAMd at 6z. Band shifted s from LV bullseye. 4-8" here. Hmm. 

6z nam is a good bit souther at 69hrs vs 0z. Let's see how this unfolds 

Just now, Ji said:

I'm hoping to chalk this up to models always struggling with new pattern change regime and they will self correct soon but geez

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

Hang in there man. We've already lost a few good ones along the way, we can't afford to lose you too. 

This is a tantalizingly close tease for extreme SE PA. Later period after the 20th remains loaded.

39 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The RGEM is a good start to the 0z run

For who?

52 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Zero.

One RAR triple IPA and half a KBS so far.

Just picked up a 4 of kbs and a 4 of cbs. Delish...both. I agree pd is in play still. Not pd3 but that's fine.

Eta: this shit be expensive....need a cheaper vice.

1 hour ago, Franklin0529 said:

Lot of confluence to the north. Can only go so far north. Hits brick wall

The problem is the antecedent airmass. Isn't that cold tbh. That's why the later threat(s) after PD hold the best potential still imo. The 13th is going to be a tantalizingly close tease outside of higher elevations imho. I could be wrong, the 0z GFS might be right. 6z barely backed off the threading of the needle for Philly proper.

About half of the 18z eps members now give the area at least a SECS event Tuesday. A little more than half of those are MECS. I would say the Euro is moving towards the GFS. The GFS is trying really hard to score the rare win.

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Well we have the wiggum rule going for us with temps soaring above 60 on Saturday... 

Doesn't mean accumulating snow but probably will see some flakes fly by midweek. After around the 10th of Feb the wiggum rule % of verification begins to drop. We r right on the cusp.

Only thing I'd like to add to this discussion...it is nice to see these threats popping up on guidance right as the upper pattern changes. Might prove my prior thinking wrong ie we have to wait to cash in. Alot of this is going to come down to dynamics/phasing time/location... especially early on. The Feb 13 threat is dependent on rates it appears. Not really a simple task, but achievable. Clipper track around the 16th is going to be dependent on 50/50 and confluence location and the building NAO ridge as it retrogrades from Scandinavia. And lastly, the PD threat around the 18th give or take is going to rely on NS phasing with the stj at the right time and location which is a function of how the NAO is oriented at the time and how strong. 

Again,  glad to see these pop up ahead of schedule and before the period I had originally circled on my calendar. This has the potential to be one of the best winter periods we've had in a while....but keep things in check because a fair amount still has to go right over the next 10 days. Pattern after this still looks ripe and active as well.

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

meh there's no real way to know at all of it's one and done. blocking likely resurfaces from Scandinavia given the SPV weakening and the Aleutian low will retrograde. bird in the hand is worth two in the bush anyway

I see it....the NS phase the gfs is doing is good here. It was @psuhoffman that noted we wanted to see that and not the gfs way it had the PD3 systems prior 3 runs (amplifying the ns to our n and flattening the flow). 

This and and the euro can work and retain the pattern moving forward. 

Perfect!

Awesome to see the ops sensing the HL blocking now and reflecting at the surface.

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Extrapolated 6z gfs looks awful for the psu storm though. Disappointing 

Iirc someone noted yesterday how we don't want the PD3 system  unless we are hoping for a 1 and done. Destroys the long term pattern or something. All eggs in one basket type thing.  Suppose if it's the 6z gfs solution tho, most would make that sacrifice.

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol i'm sorry but I can't look at this kinda shit and not see the resemblance. it's striking

Been looking at this also. Biggest difference I am seeing is the orientation of the height field in the NAO domain. In 2010 that was more flat (W to E?) which allowed for a more 'relaxed' appearance where the STJ was able to come N and hit us.

This time around it is a more stout look and more of a N to S orientation which pushes on the flow underneath and is giving  us the suppression hints. 

Maybe this first wave is in fact suppressed. Still a ways out. But even if, perhaps as the NAO pulses around the 23rd and on we get the STJ to pull a little more N. Seeing  no signs of the NAO completely vanishing, so that is a plus.

Eta: I do know the scale on those maps are off, but even so there is still a notable difference in the nao ridge orientation. Every little bit does matter and can make for a big change at the surface wrt track.

I know I took a break at the right time when I return and the chat is focused on Kamu's shrinking snow pile, honeybees, and sunflower seeds/millet/wild bird food.

Nothing has changed from the thought I posted last week. Tantalizingly close tease 12th-15th (still think more wet than white, could be wrong). Pattern change happens at HL....stj becomes active and kicks a wave under us (suppressed?) 18th-20th. Bigger shortwave in the stj moves east after the 21st and will likely be the first legit threat for a juiced southern storm 23rd give or take. Then weeklies Continue the look into the first part of March with maybe a pattern-ending large threat as the calendar flips...give or take a couple days....but that is wayyyy out in fantasy land. 

Biggest takeaway for now....patience still. Not over yet. 

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Just looking at the AO.. wow, it's suppose to go negative!

https://ibb.co/0mY5FQR

Welcome to the discussion Chuck 

Yes, strong -ao at that and trending moreso past few day'  progs.

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you’re telling me. wow

If secs threat is "guys", mecs threat is "folks", then is this hecs tease "motherfuckers"? @stormtracker?

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The pattern progression has been keying on that date for a while now, and as you said, now the guidance is actually starting to pick up on a specific wave even in the window.  

Couldn't agree more. I haven't posted much lately but echoed pretty similar thoughts wrt the pattern progression a day or so ago in my home forum. This is going to require an insane amount of patience, especially as we sift thru a rainer (or 2?) to get closer to this threat window.

5 hours ago, Duca892 said:

Can I ask a really novice question? Everyone’s hyping up this pattern change, but when will that be reflected with storm chances in the LR? It just looks rainy and warm?

This touted pattern change is going to require alot of patience...even more than usual. Big Aleutian low sets up around the 13th, wave breaks and NAO ridge builds a few days later in response to the big EPO ridge and +PNA that the Aleutian low triggers. I think Iceman is on the right track, but these setups generally don't yield meaningful wintry weather here until 5-7 days after the NAO pulses then starts to relax. So I could see a rainer around VD but a relative close call event as the NAO goes neg.....that system moves into the 50/50 region as the TPV wobbles around on the backside of the NAO domain ridging. Split flow out west kicks a STJ wave east around the 19th-20th......but given the progression of the pattern, realistically we are probably looking towards the 3rd week of Feb...few days after the 21st give or take, for a legit threat. That's how I'm seeing it anyway. 

Thats all I got....back to taking a break.

Patience.