Ralph Wiggum

If anything the hr³ is juicier over extreme sepa this run.

4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

HRRR starting to come back north a little. Current radar supports that.

Looks exactly the same

6 minutes ago, RedSky said:

18z euro bumped north and is rather weak south of the Lehigh Valley. I hate Dr No.

 

Globals probably not the guidance of choice this late in the game. Could be right but I would weigh more heavily on the mesos.

People at work in telford blowing this off. Claim it was 50 today it won't stick 

Just now, LVblizzard said:

Be thankful if this keeps going south. If I get shafted it means you get hammered!

I know this sir. I hope we can all cash in

Just now, MGorse said:

This is insane! I would literally be pulling my hair out if working today. Did mention over the weekend at work that this storm could be a surprise but was not sure where. 

Hrrr looks 83ish with that band and those rates down this way. Ffs make this the one time it verifies lol

5 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

RAP and HRRR just did. Ugh. Were even slowly losing this one up here


.

Shouldn't have started a thread under that name. I'm looking at you @LVblizzard

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

A pasting n and w

19 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

12z NAM is running so will see how that goes.

A pasting n and w

Like @Birds~69 stated these setups generally disappoint se pa cold chasing precip. 9 out of 10 times. But who knows, maybe this is the 1 out of 10 where we get the surprise. I wouldn't bet on it tho. Thinking a coating to slushy inch or 2 in extreme se PA. AN inch to 3 up my way. North and W of Central Bucks 3-5" then a swath of 4-8" LV. Rough guesstimate.

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Guys and gals the Reggie is going south

 

It narrowed the snow swath if anything.

11 minutes ago, MattMal88 said:

The trend is our friend right now. I want to see the rest of the 0z suite continue it to feel any kind of good yet. If we only had a decent airmass this would be a hige hit.

It's a shame....I've been suggesting this would be a tantalizingly close call for extreme SE PA for some time now due mostly to the antecedent airmass that isn't that good. Far N and W crew enjoy this one. Maybe we get another shot down this way later in the week. Some of the extended stuff is starting to look more tame and seasonal now.

6 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

NAM big step back compared to 18z run. 

Yep, more in line with other guidance. HRRR is great most of the time with its 18hr runs....the extended runs nasomuch.

NAM 12k snow depth has a slushy inch or so up here. Meh.

12 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Looks like your personal version of the @Scraff SBFI is on the increase! 

Fridge has the Belgians...some St Bernardus, Victory Golden Monkey, and Cape May Devil's Reach.

49 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I get what you are saying about patterns that used to work.. and I agree, the PNA has a precipitation correlation here that is actually greater than the temperature correlation in the Wintertime! That means, the net air temps+precip makes -PNA more favorable for snow than +PNA. 

This could theoretically work, -PNA, EPO ridge (cold air source), big NAO block keeping lows from cutting (track under the region). 

43 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

So like…. Is the biblical pattern change still happening orrr

CFS still looks decent into March. Havent seen the Euro weeklies.

44 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This place is starting to annoy the fuck out of me lol.

Anyway, its pre SB HH. KBS time.

Game prep time!

6 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

like the trend for more western ridging

Yep, epo as well:

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I don't dislike this look. Stj wave, possible ns interaction, ridging out west, weakness in the flow near 50/50. 

Getting ahead here but this^^ system is impacted by what happens the 19th-20th. With that said tho, I am  very co fident we cash in between the 18th-26th at the very least. One of those 2 waves works out....maybe both. 

I don't dislike this look. Stj wave, possible ns interaction, ridging out west, weakness in the flow near 50/50. 

1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

Yeah, decent I-78 on north, maybe some pity flakes down this way.

Close but no cigar for extreme se PA. Not surprised...little cold air to work with. Always felt this was more an elevation and rate-dependent setup. Unfortunately we wont have the heavier rates down this way. 

GFS is firing a PNA ridge on the 20th ahead of the PSU baby.

Feels like we are marching straight ahead into fully engaged battle for 12z. Guess this is our weenie version of hitting the beaches at Normandy at the start of WW2. Well, grab our allies from the other subs....let's fucking roll men. Godspeed to you all!

24 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Gentlemen? You got the wrong forum bro