Ralph Wiggum

Beautiful coastal on the euro for next weekend. Seems we do this every March..."where was this look 3 weeks ago?". 

2 hours ago, JTA66 said:

May as well issue my final winter grade today. Only a March '58 redux could get me to change my score...

C

Pros: It snowed. We had junk & stuff to track. We had snow on snow. I was under two winter storm warnings (although only one verified). It was better than last year (which isn't saying much).

Cons: Winter was reduced to two, one-week stretches. Other than that it was another long November. Strong Nino, -QBO and this was the best we could do?? There should have been at least one MECS. And where were the nor'easters? It wasn't a dry winter. It started off with those heavy rainstorms in Dec...and then?? Not to steal drought-guy's act but I was certain we'd get our fair share of coastals with wind, beach erosion, watches/warning/advisories, etc. Whether they would be wet or white was the only question. At least 1982-83 and 2015-16 were one-hit wonders. 

Final thought: Time to toss SSWE's in the trash bin. They're as useful as Siberian snow cover.

 

Toss the MJO in the dumpster as well. Didn't really reflect historically  what we would expect given the phase. Another overrated/understudied tool wrt east coast winter weather.

47 minutes ago, Ji said:

this has to be snow

 

Minty

5 hours ago, RedSky said:

YAR she blows! Gives mby 18" and completes a great winter lol. Still there at 12z but the timing is off.

Where was this look 3 weeks ago? Nevermind...perfect track rainstorm probably.

Best digital tease of the season. 1% chance I give this one

14 hours ago, stormtracker said:

I'm really surprised you are hanging in there this long.

If ppl weren't dangling the 1958 analog all season he would have thrown in the towel in early January as per usual.

17 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

We just can’t know 

This would have worked out 66 years ago.

On 2/20/2024 at 9:09 AM, Albedoman said:

 Its not fair as I feel as I am the one that got served surf and turf while everyone else got mac and cheese.  

I love Mac and cheese personally and would eat it 7 days a week if possible. Not greedy wrt what's being served and never got angry at others eating their feast. Glad you enjoyed!

1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said:

We spent weeks and weeks posting tons of maps and analysis about a late Feb “epic” pattern that was totally fictional. Not only was it fictional; but we are literally in the 50’s and 60’s with rain into Canada. I’m just not seeing any science behind any of this. I am also not seeing much “ Mea culpa” and pause being given into how wrong it at was and learning from it to forecast better in the future. That frustrates me how Mets are just so wrong and move on like they didn’t make major mistakes.. 

I posted a discussion prior to the epic collapse of how I thought the weeklies were deriving at those epic looks. Then I reposted again after they collapsed. They were based on algorithms programmed into guidance based on analogs from seasons past which matched things as pdo, qdo, enso as well as current data when models/weeklies were ran. With that said, if we had similar conditions to say late Jan 2010 when those weeklies were ran, a heavily weighted analog was used thus showing us something which looked like Feb  2010. Honestly it wasn't surprising things flipped but I played along for a bit with the positive vibes gang because I actually enjoy posting here. Just have to walk on eggshells at times.

We have El Popo erupting in Mexico hitting 2 miles into the atmosphere.  Between this and all the recent SWEs I'm sure we can muster a late season miracle. LFG!

8 hours ago, Albedoman said:

well for macungie, I still rate it a C- even with the nice snowfall event on Saturday and the previous week.  The temps have been cold this week and for one week in January but what strikes me about this winter was the amount of warm temps and rainfall from late November into January of nearly 15 inches. Furthermore  the excessive cloudy days throughout the entire winter season did a number on my utility bill trying to keep the house warm.  This winter sucked except for the last week.  A couple of weeks of winter simply does make up for the flooding rains and cloudy days, especially at  Christmas time. 

 

The warm days, the cloudy days, and the abundant rains are all trademarks of a Nino fwiw. Kind of surprised how this winter played out here. What surprised me most is the lack of Southern snows along NC/SC a few times during a Nino. Didn't have that this year. I wonder if that feature has shifted N over the years to our region? We usually don't see the week-long stretches of winter but rather one big one in Feb or March. Interesting that Nova Scotia got an anomalous 5' + snowstorm a few weeks back. Hmm, maybe everything did shift N this year. Wonder if that's a sign of the times/change?

23 minutes ago, RedSky said:

5" depth in the sun

In all honesty, we had 2 decent 10-day stretches of winter....this winter. Based on future guidance, I will assume we are pretty much done for all intents and purposes. With that said, I give this winter a C/C+ grade. Like I told my son last year when finishing up 8th grade tho...C's are meh, you can do better. This year as a freshman in HS he is rocking straight A's and some advanced/honors studies. We need winter to respond likewise. We can do better.

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

I used to be bitter, or so I was told lol. I forget how that started.

Speaking of bitter(s), just made an old fashioned, with quite a bite. Delicious.

In other news, HH GFS has a completely new look for March 1st. Not surprising. Now we torch lol.

Bring it. I want 90s by early April.

32 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Might as well

March is the new April?

10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright show of hands: What masochists are gonna be in here tracking next winter? 

Why wouldn't we be here? I bet next winter tosses a surprise or two at us. It's akin to  Vegas sports book odds....when all the money is on one side (in this case alot of pros throwing next winter in the garbage saying not even a remote shot) that's when the upsets tend to happen. Overall probably a crud pattern but I'm sure we sneak a handful of trackable events in there.

5 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I mean I can think of one reason the atmosphere may be behaving differently than past times… 

Aliens?

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

JB says the hecs is coming 

Still waiting for the Sistine Chapel...

Chuck, what say you about the mid lat blocking during hurricane season? Do you see that on the increase with the shifting ocean currents that scientists have predicted?

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The biggest reason we don’t get many land falling hurricanes here isn’t the water temps. It’s that we’re far enough north that the prevailing westerlies usually get a storm before it gets to our latitude and we dont stick out at all so once they turn northeast it’s game over for us. Now…if you’re suggesting the whole circulation is going to shift north… if they shift north so much that we are south of the westerlies hurricanes are the least of our issues  

 

The westerlies didn't affect Sandy. Matter of fact that was a heck of a block. But.....with the posts about blocking being on the decline, I guess that nullifies things.

So with the "oceans on fire" that I've seen posted here, maybe we should move on from big snow tracking because obviously that isnt working, and start tracking landfalling canes in the Mid Atlantic and NJ. We're due for another Sandy. Well, not really and this post is pretty much just sarcasm, but I wonder if we will start seeing more Northern landfalling tropical systems up this way in the coming years? Would make for an Interesting study anyway. 

4 hours ago, Albedoman said:

 3-4  more inches for Macungie- any takers?  2 feet of snow in 5 days is enough for me this winter  How about you Ralph?  LOL 

 

Don't know if this is the one or not. But I'm confident we haven't seen the last of the winter weather for the season. Hey, if you get forecast for double the amount expected at my locale again, you got a spare room? Might need to chase 

9 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

 

The latest Euro Weeklies show the chance of one more potential window starting in mid March through the end of the month.

Groundhog said hold my beer.

Snow squall warnings firing in Telford

An occasional mini ground 'blizzard' with spotty whiteouts here in Telford as the winds whip and blow the snow off roofs and fields.

41 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Snowing lightly....decent batch blew up to my W. 

Just hit a hefty squall driving thru Hatfield