Ralph Wiggum

31 minutes ago, Ji said:

way too much trough in the PAC NW

That should slide E under the ridge no?

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you can see all of the ULLs stretching across the ATL. this is how you get big wave breaking that leads to a -NAO. almost like the ATL is blocking itself up before the block even really forms

Can someone please explain what exactly you mean when you say a 'wave breaking'?  I've been around too long I'm embarrassed asking. Maybe I know it via different terminology.

^^^caveats apply to this of course....the ens and weeklies...are they right? And second, if we do get a good pattern, does that mean we automatically cash-in? There's a ton of chatter in a few other subs about HECS and KU correlating with the upcoming advertised pattern. While I agree this is the look to roll the dice with, I strongly recommend tempering expectations. No sense  just assuming best case case scenario then being let down. Too many epic patterns come and go with little to no fanfare. Keep things in check. If the extended looks hold for another week or so, then we buckle up for the ride.

5 hours ago, RedSky said:

We lost the snow 

And that cold wave next week-gone

 

We are forecast to be in a lull thru about the 5th of Feb. Would have been cool to sneak in a small window, but this wasn't a high probability. Feb 5 (maybe pushing the change a few days too early?) onward thru early March.....if the ens means and weeklies have any clue then we had better cash-in on at least a couple frozen events. The upper level looks don't generally get too much better than advertised. Time will tell.

24 years ago today....ahhh. Anyway, now back to the long range stuff.

12z euro hits @ChescoWx pretty good Sun pm-Mon fwiw.

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Snow TV on the GFS Sun night/Monday.    Sold!

How might this affect Lamar's legacy?

31 minutes ago, Wxdood said:

Call me crazy but the past 3-4 years it seems like we get that -NAO, favorable cold conditions for winter weather toward April/May and posters in here have said 'too bad we didn't have this pattern in winter'...  that almost seems to be evolving sooner each year and now this year it is happening a little earlier yet which is opening the door for a snowy pattern.  Could this continue to evolve sooner each year?  Kinda interesting to me.

Need to confirm with @Stormchaserchuck1....because we just can't know.

7 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Just watching Fox29, Kathy Orr has a high of 66F (Phily) for Fri...Kamu snow pile may be on life support.

May change the car oil then BBQ...

36/Cloudy

Wiggum Rule Watch in effect starting Friday. Touch 60 and see some flakes within 5 days after. 93% success rate.

34 minutes ago, Ji said:

I think it’s actually ahead of it!

Granted it's the op but the general idea after 240 is beautiful in the PAC. That Aleutian low not only pumps the EPO ridge but if you run a loop, that low is ejecting sw after sw into the stj and continental US. 

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why are people saying rain if this storm wraps up ? There is a nice cold high up north .

Where's the high? Where's the cold? 

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

GFS is the extreme end...mostly rain outside of higher elevations then ending as some wet flakes. Best case scenario.

Hearing alot of chatter about a potential event next weekend. As noted several days ago, this is an inland higher elevation potential at best. Antecedent airmass is garbage. Timing of ns also off a bit, so again we are relying on a warmish BL outside of those high elevations. A perfect track isnt going to much to help outside of a few mangled wet flakes possibly mixing as the storm deepens off the coast and pulls away. The better setup starts about 7-10 days following and things get pretty interesting from about the 10th of Feb on thru early March if the weeklies and monthly progs are to be believed. So patience first....and then buckle up time later.

Just popped in to say Go Ravens!

I don't consider myself a bandwagon jumper...many here know I've been a casual fan for years. However, if you feel the need to kick me off, I hope you will at least allow me to March alongside. From one Birds fan to another, go Ravens and beat the piss out of Mahommes PLEASE ffs! 

On 1/20/2024 at 6:33 AM, Birds~69 said:

Flyers 5 straight, Col today

Sixers 4 straight., Char tonight

Lock of the year. 7 point tease: Balt -2, SF -2.5  

Good call.on the teaser. I just saw this. I went heavy on the Lions. Was sweating for a bit but nice win. Fans deserve it. Put some of the house $ on Bills. Had an uneasy feeling going in but the ml looked too easy to take KC so went opposite. Still ended in the green so no complaints. Feel bad for those fans lol. "Missed wide right" needs to be their new motto. 

Really like Baltimore next week and I think Detroit's run may be over. Paper says #1 vs #1 in SB but who the heck knows. Lions may end up as the Cinderella team of destiny. 

42 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I mean PSU said that a pool of warmer than average water in Indonesia is causing the Hadley Cell to expand.

Then drop some 10# blocks of ice in that shit pool. 

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was 2-3 days from starting to look very good. We might need a week to get cold after though. If the progression continues as the pace shown I’d expect us to be tracking threats around Feb 12 

I haven't backed off of the PD range for a big hit....but the road to victory is going to require alot of patience.

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like a transitional week feb 5-12 (similar to first 10 days of Jan) and then feb 12 and onwards we get our chances

i do wish it gets moved up even a few days though, we don’t want this thaw running the clock out on us

I mean, if there is a good side to all of this, most of us in this sub are here discussing this crud while  currently being under a snowpack and temps BN. So, there's that.

21 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

looks pretty nice

Dunno man...the weeklies 'smiley face pattern' hasn't produced yet for us.

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Neutrals since 2000 have pretty bad. 5/6 below normal snow. 

Maybe just a miracle....just a fucking miracle.

3 hours ago, Chris78 said:

I wouldn't sleep on next Sunday 

27 minutes ago, Ji said:

-nao

Op at range

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Feb 11 - March 5? What did those long ranges say in Nov/Oct?

I was wondering the same. Someone had better tell the LR ens means to check in with the weeklies because they dont look anything alike even if you roll the pattern forward. Heck, even the Scan Ridging does the opposite of what we are used to ie migrating towards the NAO domain. Instead that ridge meanders elsewhere.

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

After a playoff bye the team beats the spread 52% of the time. 

South teams (FL, TX, LA, GA, CA, AZ) playing in under 30 degrees loses vs the spread 59% of the time. 

What is the correlation when facing a ++NAO tho?

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Lamar's critics can stfu now.

He's been a fav of mine since he came into the league. Glad to see them making a legit run and him blossoming with the deep team around him.