Ralph Wiggum

Isn't it crazy that this has been our biggest issue in recent years? We can't get a balanced favorable telleconnection(s) anymore...it has to be off the charts.

@ravensrule thoughts?

It's differences in wave timing and separation. Chance of 2 storms that hit that same areas in the 1/6-1/10 arent great, just mho. What the ensembles are showing as 2 diff storms are actually: an earlier storm around the 6-7th with the followup being shunted s and e behind the 500mb flow out of the NW...or slower shortwave that has more time to dig as the NAO ridge retrogrades to Davis Strait and creates a euro-type situation centered around the 9th...thus is appears on the smoothed ens means as 2 different back to back storms when in reality they are unclear exactly which of the 2 waves to develop. I mean, my take could be 100% wrong....Feb 2010 happened. Not sure we should be rooting for 1 over the other. We likely get a shot at a bigger storm later as the pattern relaxes/reloads...at least that's how these telleconnections have worked in the past.

If you are banking on a HECS level event, then probably. Realistically could have 1 or 2 secs during this period then maybe the reality is our biggest storm happens when the pattern breaks down. At least that's 'normally' how it plays out.

Jan 6 has shown thumper/cutter for days why the sudden surprise?

Euro is a KU textbook storm between 1/7-1/10...2.5 feet Philly proper lol.

Cutter my ass bruh

Somebody broke the gfs. Don't see this everyday

CMC would have probably been a nice system with that kicker post 240. Just timing diffs and deciding which sw to phase between guidance families. Gonna be a fun couple of weeks.

CMC wanted to do something but kicker on the heels of the shortwave kept it from amplifying and kept it S and E

Eye spy a clipper dropping into the flow at 276

Did that earlier. Ran a cycle of seafoam thru to clean the gunk out of the carb

Flirting with 'folks' territory if we can get this under 6 days

Triple shot

Just like 18z gefs

Pbp for days 10 is craziness but don't stop

Only 10 days to hold lol

Holy smokes

I like this solution

All Northern Stream and no dig

I'll start a thread

Last post on this one as we still have a few disturbances to get thru before this one, but it is intriguing. Last 3 gefs

Eerie similarities to Jan 96 tbh.

12z gefs as expected is not suppressed nor any fish storm for the 7th-8th

GEFS is really honking on the Jan 6-10 time period. That's a hell of a sw signal entering the Plains in addition to the obvious other favorable teleconnection indices