Ralph Wiggum

Closed h5 isobar at 96 associated with the midwest vort on icon. That's new.

Picked up .3" with last round. Up to 1.9" for the event.

It is. But we are under 5 days now. If the gfs is going to score a coup we need a bigger jump imo. Someone else said it, end result probably going to be up in-between the 2 like a CMC/ICON blend.

Euro is taking micro steps, stubborn asf

Meh

Yep, the typical ull 'fluff' dendrites. Coming in bursts here.

All surfaces with a fresh coating, radar still blossoming and backbuilding. Did any short range model have this up our way??

Will be adding to this mornings totals for sure. Heaviest burst of the day currently....call it moderate. 26F.

Several members in the mid 950s are it approaches New England

Ffs there's a 967 due east of the DE/MD border.

As psu would say...tucked

I dunno, I often refer to them and am rarely disappointed. Maybe we just have alot of marginal setups in the last 8 or 9 years.

The most accurate I find are often the positive snow depth change. People dont like those because they are lightest of the bunch, but more realistic than the Kuchie maps

Me after looking at the Euro:

So another overhyped storm for SE PA by local TV news outlets? I thought the NWS Mount Holly @MGorse did a great job tho.

And if other guidance is onto anything, our nao decIdes to do a full linkup with said ser. That would put a damper on things in a hurry. Maybe those late Jan and Feb Nina forecasts verify? But with that said, the epo isn't going anywhere, so IF we can keep the ser a separate entity....all these southern sliding systems then suddenly have a chance to be farther n. Going to be an interesting couple of weeks.

I posted in the other sub, comes down to strength if the nao block which helps force that lobe under and also the ridge out west....gfs mainati s it which allows for the dig.....other guidance rolls the ridge over. And that could pose a whole nother issue with the overall North Amercia pattern as we head into to next week. Hoping the gfs is correct for several reasons here.

Didn't most guidance have you 3-6"?

Still having a tough time believing the gfs. No real mechanism in place to take this up the coast. General flow around the confluent 50/50 is fast and will tend to keep anything from gaining latitude until well off the coast. See today's system as an example.

1.6" so far in Ivyland. Hoping to get the additional .2" to meet my expectations from last night. Otherwise, total bust

Those philly totals are likely skewed high from a couple of those BECS

BTW, I will take that 979 East of Assateague ftw. I know @CAPE wants that 974 a bit East of there tho.

GEFS certainly improved

It's a crazy delicate setup. It's looks like the NAO block/ridge is partly what forces that energy to dive S and phase it on the gfs op. Ridge out in the Pac NW also ot as quick to break down/rollover whereas the models that aren't phasing have a weaker NAO look or degrading faster and also the Pac NW ridge essentially progresses and rolls over. The latter scenarios allow for more of a kicker to nudge development too late. Said it earlier, even tho the GFS op is wx porn, there isn't much wrt realistic pattern progression that would support such a scenario. Still feel this setup favors you guys in the Mid Atl for a light-moderate glancing hit while the storm get nudged ENE while developing. Dont see the KU DC-NYC with this setup.

Crazy delicate and complicated all-or-nothing setup. Won't take much to turn this threat back into a HECS (gfs op is still kind of alone) or a slider off HSE and glancing blow.