Regarding the Thurs-Fri system you can see a notable move to more of a SE shift in track as we have witnessed with a few systems this fall as lead time has shortened. NAM at range has the slp SE of Apalachicola FL whereas the GFS and FV3 have it running the Mississippi River. Of note, the Euro is also closer in general placement to the NAM at similar times as are the NAVGEM and UKMET vs the GFS family. Ensembles show clustering of low placement well S and E of mean center also but once we hit 90 hours there is a muddled look between which camp is correct though again, looking at the trends over past 3-5 days it has been to push the system farther S and E.
Curiously, the NAVGEM has the slp track over Cape May which is somewhat not surprising given the model biases but is still fitting in with the general trends of more ridging at higher lat and more of a SE track as lead time shrinks. Might be one of the few repetitive trends that we will see this winter and *maybe* that NAO ridging, even if transient, pops up more often than not and can help us out as the season moves forward.