Ralph Wiggum

'Variablility' is a good word on where we are headed imho. Back in mid Nov when many of us were discussing the winter possibilities most of us noted that there was nothing that made the forecast lean one way or the other. We talked about lots of conflicting signals and one of the more challenging seasonal forecasts in quite some time because there were no concrete factors that were swaying to one side or the other. And this is precisely what we are seeing. HL blocking is there as several felt it would be BUT it continues to shuffle around between the EPO region, AO, and NAO regions respectively. Weaknesses in the 50/50 region have been welcome, but will that last? Split flow out West continues to emerge at times. But most of these pattern features have failed thus far to work in tandem and form any sort of predictable recurring patterns that we are accustomed to seeing some years. Im not sure anyone can confidently say they can read what the pattern or a specific tellie is going to do past 8 days where we are now this season based on recent history of A+B+C=D. I do not exclude myself from this. This is a setup where certain features are transient and throwing fits into how those features interact in the long wave pattern. This isnt a knock on anyone at all. Trying to put the pieces together is why we are here and how we learn. My thoughts are that by the end of this season were are going to look back and say "what an unpredictably wild ride....there is alot to be learned from winter 2019-2020".

My feeling on the coming pattern is a roller coaster. Blast of cold, moderation and yes even torch, cold/dry, warm/wet, clippers, and even a KU coastal before winter is out. I dont think we are going to lock into one particular pattern that just keeps repeating....maybe 7-10 day fluxes. If guidance being all over the board isnt screaming 'chaos' or 'topsy turvy' with unpredictable changes and swings as we head into the heart of winter, then I'm not sure what does.

Never said it was good. Just said nice. Nice patterns dont always equal snow. Very nice in that it is workable unlike the looks we were getting 72 hours ago . My thought looking at that is that there is an active stj coming out of the SW Cali coast. There is a 50/50, a ridge in the Eastern nao region, ridge building off the NW coast with the PV downstream trying to meander SSE between the west coast ridge and the ridge in E Canada.

Very nice

The euro at the end of the run looks a little like 0z GGEM with the NS energy zipping thru ushering in the CAA and a piece of stj energy hanging back. Obviously is a day slower than the GGEM thus the slower evolution. Might be setting up something for right around NYE.

0z GGEM has the scenario I mentioned with the arctic jet racing out ahead and the left behind stj sw developing and coming N. GFS/Euro ops phase in the Plains=cutter. Maybe a period to keep an eye on.

We can dream while the blinds are closed. I'm creepily peeking thru the slits stalking the pattern change.

HH GFS interesting look at 180. Get that NS ull to plow ESE and flatten the top of that ridge down into the Mid Atl and not phase with the stj ull and have the stj wave follow behind and yeah.

What a difference a day makes.

Enjoy this relax/reload period for the next week to 10 days. Enjoy the holidays...family...the seasonal weather. Busy times ahead as the New Year approaches.

How was Spongebob's home flattened by storm surge? The absorbent in yellow and porous bastard lives in a pineapple UNDER THE SEA ffs

But what about urban heat island effect? If it comes close to Miami for example it should ramp up to a Cat 6 with all that lift and convection and stuff no?

So does the NAM past 30 hours trash apply in the summer the same as with winter storms? 12k NAM stalls Dorian near Bahamas and implies a possible loop/recurve. But it's the NAM at range so we toss it right?

Why is it inevitable that comparisons to Andrew and Hugo are made any time a SE US landfalling cane threat occurs? Every. Single. Time.

HMON hates Miami

Time for a trip to BK for a Whopper. You're on board....generally a good sign.

I recall a March 13 storm (no not 1993 lol) I think in 2017 where we had a similar situation and the 12k NAM was the only one that had sleet and mixing very far NW. Majority shrugged it off as being out to lunch. Guess which verified? Yep the 12k. Other mesos had a monster snow hit but the sleet line punched W all the way to near Harrisburg iirc. Not calling for a repeat just saying the mesos arent always right.

Hrrr coming in colder yet again so the trend for tonight continues. Good hit i95 corridor on N and W.

Should be a batch of heavy stuff sliding SW to NE in Southeast PA shortly after 11pm-ish tonight. That will be what we should be watching to hopefully cool the column as you alluded to.

Battle of the mesos for tonight. Hrrr is colder where it matters as is the 12k NAM. However the 3k NAM warms 850s quite a bit more and farther NW than 6z even with a better slp track. The 3k actually was colder thru about 11pm at 850mb vs the 6z run but then goes bonkers warming that layer subsequently. One would think the 3k should be handling thermals better so for now I am going to give it some credence yet raise an eyebrow to the colder solutions.

Decided to just go ahead and make this thread since there was some confusion on where to discuss the event for tonight and early tomorrow morning. Latest Hrrr and mesos have trended even colder yet again. Here is the Hrrr for this event which does not include current snowfall. It is all snow here now. Looks like 3-4" in my area of Bucks Co per this model.

Just wanted to pop in and say good luck to everyone in this subforum. You all have been very welcoming to us Northerners and I am genuinely excited to see y'all cash-in. Hope it exceeds expectations!

Also yielded an increase in striped bass and monster bluefish at least down my way. Best fishing in years!

Link?

Who was qg_omega before the username change? Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk