Ralph Wiggum

I do need a new lens script, so you're not wrong. I saw Jan 6 gfs surface had a low flare up along a front and create a wide stripe.of snow in the interior then saw the euro a day later showed similar farther S. Could see how that resembles the late Jan 25-26 look. Overall pattern tho looks like we are backing into that window and will require some much needed luck.

Been at work but quick glance LR on GfS and Euro have that January 87 feel. That is all.

Agree with this. Which is why I'm taking the GEFS snowfall means later in the LR with a grain of salt. All ens means are strengthening and anchoring the central PAC ridge and any sign of a -AO appears transient and more a function of the PV wobbling around the HL. Like you said, plenty of time but the looks we are seeing certainly arent giving me a warm fuzzy feeling right now. Normally I would say meh its post 240 hours but when the ens are unanimous irt specific features....

I'm not seeing that. Better look around 300hrs with the PV setting up as a 50/50. OP at range tho....futile analysis.

Look at this loop...the SE ridge is about to go apesh!t and the trof out West is anchoring in.

Opposite actually. PNA ridge we had for a window gets squashed and a SE ridge is showing up. Granted it is an op run and at range but there was no improvement....quite the opposite.

Talk about a role reversal....how about a high coming out of the GOM attacking a banana low anchored over the NE. Cant say I've seen anything like that anytime recently

US models are caving rapidly. Last year extended range had epic looks and they never materialized until March and stayed 10 days+ out all winter. This season we get poor looks and they continue looking more bleak and getting closer in time and hang on longer in the LR. Funny how that works. Tuning up the lawnmower today. Maybe reverse psychology can help lol.

Dude that is a whack pattern developing between Jan 3-8. Saw one run with the FL snowcane, another with a SLP in the western GOM dive SE and hit Jamaica, a bomb cyclone, a low 75 miles.east of Delmarva track WNW and end up west of Philly 6 hours later, etc. If there is going to be a convoluted surprise that may be the period. Like Bob said, doubt we will be tracking a particular threat....but something might pop under the radar in the short/mid range. Some fun solutions popping up tho.

Anyone glance at the HH GFS? Has a 936 low at the benchmark lol.

Amazing, just 2 days ago several here had punted the first 3 weeks of January.

Also this is an op run at LR and there is alot of indecision among ens members as to where the PV ends up...Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay, back towards W Canada. TBD. I would take that location tho on the op.

Minus 40s just N of the US/Canada border and above 40s in this region. Gradient.

Loving the 276hr gfs coastal off the Delmarva that jumps to West of Philly by 282 lol

I really enjoyed the HH GFS at 288 that takes a low in the Western Gulf and dives it straight Southeast into Jamaica!!

Bingo...actually day 9 has a lp attacking a departing hp. Ends up cutting but different look that some of the gloom doom and SHUTOUT talks

Day 10 Euro op looks........interesting.

There is a +PNA at 240 on the 18z GEFS, so there's that.

Looks like the pattern from others storms...ns/ss separation, positively tilted trof, kicker keeping things progressive....slide slide slippidy slide

The background state 50/50 that we had for weeks is fading as well on the ens LR. When it rains it pours, pun intended.

So the CFS weeklies for the first time in history show BN temps and AN precip for a period during the winter and now this? People are correct when they say expect the complete opposite of what that model shows I suppose.

3rd week of March will rock!

'Variablility' is a good word on where we are headed imho. Back in mid Nov when many of us were discussing the winter possibilities most of us noted that there was nothing that made the forecast lean one way or the other. We talked about lots of conflicting signals and one of the more challenging seasonal forecasts in quite some time because there were no concrete factors that were swaying to one side or the other. And this is precisely what we are seeing. HL blocking is there as several felt it would be BUT it continues to shuffle around between the EPO region, AO, and NAO regions respectively. Weaknesses in the 50/50 region have been welcome, but will that last? Split flow out West continues to emerge at times. But most of these pattern features have failed thus far to work in tandem and form any sort of predictable recurring patterns that we are accustomed to seeing some years. Im not sure anyone can confidently say they can read what the pattern or a specific tellie is going to do past 8 days where we are now this season based on recent history of A+B+C=D. I do not exclude myself from this. This is a setup where certain features are transient and throwing fits into how those features interact in the long wave pattern. This isnt a knock on anyone at all. Trying to put the pieces together is why we are here and how we learn. My thoughts are that by the end of this season were are going to look back and say "what an unpredictably wild ride....there is alot to be learned from winter 2019-2020".

My feeling on the coming pattern is a roller coaster. Blast of cold, moderation and yes even torch, cold/dry, warm/wet, clippers, and even a KU coastal before winter is out. I dont think we are going to lock into one particular pattern that just keeps repeating....maybe 7-10 day fluxes. If guidance being all over the board isnt screaming 'chaos' or 'topsy turvy' with unpredictable changes and swings as we head into the heart of winter, then I'm not sure what does.

Never said it was good. Just said nice. Nice patterns dont always equal snow. Very nice in that it is workable unlike the looks we were getting 72 hours ago . My thought looking at that is that there is an active stj coming out of the SW Cali coast. There is a 50/50, a ridge in the Eastern nao region, ridge building off the NW coast with the PV downstream trying to meander SSE between the west coast ridge and the ridge in E Canada.