Ralph Wiggum

Off topic, but since everyone is hanging in here, icon is sending a clipper into the flow midweek with this weekend storm acting as a 50/50 and the flow jammed up.

Is that a capture on the icon between 114 and 120?

Exactly. It seems the bleeding has stopped thus far at 0z.

?? We are about to get plastered with a thump of snow right after 84

Imma leave this right here (0z vs 18z...stronger banana high and puts that TV low right in its place)

From 75 to 84 the hp in NY doesnt move an inch

Confluence is displaced a little N this run with higher heights. Not sure we r going to love this. Initial thump will be nice.

I was just contemplating the same and yes, farther east. May make for a shorter duration system but will limit the heights rising and mix threat

You are correct. GFS and Euro will have it.

Can't help but think back to Jan 25, 2000 and the papers that were written after that surprise. Models and mets together were focusing on the wrong sw feature all the way up til 36 hrs prior. Maybe we are victims of something similar here. Not sure what surprise would be in store. Just thought it was funny we sitting here not sure what we are hoping for, same date 26 years later, same dilemma.

Watch the models decide to bury the sw out in baja at 0z now.

We need to unleash balloons from Hawaii and Guam to get the data. Seemed to work for China where they sent weather balloons to the US to sample sparse data areas for their weather reports a few years ago

These 'positive'(?) Changes on the NAM didnt make much positive difference on the euro. Are we hoping for the right piece to change?

@Maestrobjwa is going to be having a word with you

NAM is rolling. Not seeing any major changes thru 3 hours.

Hurricane Schwartz posted a couple videos on social media. Common sense stuff...ignore the social media clickbait hype, dont trust anyone putting number amounts out yet at this range. He went onto add how well the euro ai and their ens have been verifying since early last summer essentially leading the way in model guidance. He then said this is actually an easy storm to forecast believe it or not, and will come down to i95 basically being the demarcation for the farthest n and w the mix will generally get with big amounts just to the left of that zone.

18z euro continues to slowwwly shave snowfall amounts near i95 and introduce more sleet and ice. 18z euro ai took an appreciable jog N. Need the bleeding to stop soon.

Op also has it but doesnt develop the Miller b quite as aggressively/early as the AI. This is a window to watch as a discrete threat is across most guidance now.

An air brigade is currently en route to the pacific to gather data for the 0z runs in an otherwise sparse data area. 0z runs are going to do 1 of 2 things imo, either really amp this system and track it farther N than we want or guidance will have a better slp handoff and nudged south. I think we will almost certainly see some big ticket changes.

Ai north

18z ai gfs has our 1/29 Miller b as an early developer that hits us again.

So the gfs is currently the clear outlier correct?

Is this the 1st run with the pac data ingested?

Well, icon is a big hit for Chicago with mostly a sleet event for extreme se pa points s and e. Never doubt either one of the KU duo...never.

Is this the gooning thread for the weekend?