Ralph Wiggum

I mean in all fairness for the forum, if youre done procreating you can donate both nuts for the snow gods. We will all appreciate your generous sacrifice.

Randy has a word i think

Well, yes. I am still very skeptical (for my area), especially considering the CMC and UKIE have both performed horribly this year. But watch, this will be the one time in the past 25 years the Arctic hp overperforms modeling and suppresses this to our South rather than coming in weaker allowing for a N trend.

But, even if the baja ull sits and ejects in pieces or is delayed to come out, there are several chances between the 24th and Feb 3ish in this pattern.

GFS bringing the baja ull out for something around the 28-29 timeframe. Takeaway....if storm 1 fails, we still get chances.

Cmc guys

Unless we are looking at different runs, that hp is stronger and pushing farther S Can't make this stuff up.

Agreed. 12z is congrats to this sub and even part of the SE. Steady as she goes.

Not surprisingly, the AI GFS took a big jump South to the gfs. And vice versa. This 12z suite is honing in on the Mid Atlantic.

That was a bigger bump S.on the AI than I thought. This one has it sights set on the MA.

AI slight bump.to gfs and vice versa. Getting in the middle perhaps.

Where is randy? GFS thru 96 little farther east with the Baja ull and confluence nudge northern. Sould be a bit.less suppressed, not surprising

AI has the confluence farther S and the Baja ull held back an asshair or 2

AI GFS seems more suppressed thru 108

12z icon starts us off with smoking cirrus, nary a flake while the MA gets a SECS. But...it did move quite a bit N, so thats a step in the right direction.

Back in the day, we had the old E/E rule (Eta/Euro). What do we call it if the AI models had this basic non-suppressed solution correct? AI rule? ",The Answer" rule? "We talkin' 'bout practice" rule (iykyk)?

Not this far South tho and not with a 1052hp pouring S. I dunno about this one. I was just about to post, and I dont want to deflate hopes, but as much as some folks are saying this Nina is acting different, it really isnt imho. And this week is a classic example of a strong NS and pv outbreak with the suppressed look and Southern areas cashing in. I hope im wrong and the AI models 'know something", but suppression has always been a major concern for us over the next 7-10 days. Central mid Atlantic is likely the jackpot zone and should bullseye this one....they deserve it. They should start a thread tbh. I just hope we dont smoke cirrus in this one while Richmond get 16". Another 2-4" storm for my area is perfectly fine with me.

Agreed. Especially since they are still 'learning as we go'.

AI guidance im told have good verification scores at this range. This is right now at day 6 considered their wheelhouse. I am still concerned about suppression in this pattern but having some reliable guidance continue to move North makes me feel a little bit better. I will say im my experience, 90% or more of the time, these high pressures or extreme cold tend to be overdone and things in general come North as we approach game time. This may be the 1 out of the 10 times though...so Im playing it cautious wrt my expectations.

Ensembles are North and the AI models are way North. AIFS is a massive hit here and the AIGFS is a crippling ice storm respectively:

Are we looking at the same cmc? Because I see an arctic fropa

G-nite.

Tasty beer from a good local brewery 20 mins from my home. Cheers!

Thats funny, my wife says the same thing to me every now and again.

Finally pulling away. Looks like 4" on the nose for today. The last hour was the heaviest of the day close to 1"/hr rates. Very light pixie dust now. 27F. Now we turn our eyes to the late week threat. Eta: 4" yesterday + 4" today for an 8" snowfall weekend brings Ivyland to 19.9" for the season.