Ralph Wiggum

I realize im breaking my own rules looking ahead, but to keep the jumpers from jumping, the CFS establishes a decent quasi CPF by mid-month thru early Feb. EPO ridging and a flattened SER.

Its usually there all season but most notably in Feb. That also doesn't necessarily mean 100% the SER will pump the entire month either. Could it? Sure. But given the Dec up top pattern, I think there will be more of a resistance from the NAO and PV. Those early season looks tend to show up throughout the season.

The SER is part of the base state we are dealing with this winter. It is a function of the La Nina and fits Nina climo. The key is cashing in when there are windows when it gets squashed or acting as a flat ridge / gradient. It was a certainty the SER would pump at times this season. Eta: so with that said, step back from the ledge. Winter is not canceled, winter is not over. We've been frozen, give or take a couple days, since late November. Consider the relax in the pattern our annual January thaw. Seems like a pretty average winter thus far, no complaints.

Just a January thaw. We've been in a freeze since right after Thanksgiving. Its going to be ok...winter will return. Just look ahead at 5 days max dont get caught up in 2 weeks out. Enjoy the reload period.

Flurries and 24F. Deep winter. Great mid season winter vibes, cold, flurries, gray.

I deleted my post. I dont want to be drawn into this. Yes, we r good you are my brother from way back.

Tt climo is 1980-2010 Wb climo is 1991-2020 Ninja'd by @baltosquid

Those are 2m temps are generally a lot less accurate than the 850s for whatever reason. Also, those 4 degree an temps are not scorching in the MA.

.25" snowfall recorded here

Cartopper with some flakes still falling. 20F

Some of us also need to realize the SER is not going anywhere. Basic Nina climo. The key is when/if GL ridging/-epo/hudson bay pv displacement can squash the SER at times and allow for something to ride along the flattened gradient extending sw->ne. This isnt a big storm look necessarily (though always a chance) but a more Nina-esque way to pad our seasonal snowfall.

We cant figure out mid January now we r hanging hope on a 26-27 enso event?

There it is. One of, if not the more likely ways we could win this month. Not a monster storm look but would fit the Nina climo with a SWFE. Lets ride. Eta: -epo, neutral/slight -pna, split flow energy coming out of SW US, flattish SER, GL ridhing.

With the EPO going hard negative, not sure how much into positive territory we would want the PNA. The EPO look continues to get closer (ie we arent kicking that teleconnection...it appears real), so a negative pna could even work helping nudge the SER into a gradient zone in the Mid Atl with SW flow events tracking sw->ne along the boundary. Thats with a negative pna or maybe neutral. Strong +PNA with a robust -EPO runs the risk of being bitter cold and dry. Though we always run some sort of risk or another. In short, if the -EPO is real, which it does look to be, I will roll the dice with a slight - or neutral PNA rather than too much of a good thing. YMMV

His new year's resolution was to get more clicks.

Newest Hrrr now has a car topper for parts of SE PA tonight.

Temp went from 36F to 24F in 90 mins.

Just had a back edge squall move thru. We are at 1" now. Nice one!

RGEM and FV3 get another small batch of snow showers into SE PA overnight tonight. It just wants to snow this year.

.5" in 15 minutes. Nice rates with that one. Ringing in the New Year properly!

Wow! That escalated quickly.

Nothing yet in Ivyland. May have seen 1 stray flake in the spotlight. 32F

@RedSky we really do night snow very well. Is this considered a vampire squall?

Here it comes. Anyone else up?

Wishing all my home forum members the Happiest of New Years as the pixie dust flies!!!