Ralph Wiggum

Speaking of brewing....what are we consuming for HH later today?

2" is smoked?

Thats what we need! A strong ridge in the NAO will suppress or swing it S and E. A relax in that feature will help us. Heather Archambault event?

Getting this in place is part 1. Hopefully we dont have to delay this feature easing to get a hit. But it will eventually happen. Get that cold dome established first, and it looks like we are doing just that.

Cocked and loaded and getting ready to eject.

Like I originally mentioned for the gooning window (27th-29th) a few days back, biggest concern for that time would be suppression or a swing and miss E. Why? 25th system drags in the Arctic air, EPO is on roids, PNA briefly spikes, and there is ridging up top on our side. Was always intrigued with the cold being established for this window and a wave undercutting our pna spike BUT the chance of a ruined snowgasm would be a squashed/suppressed system or swing and miss just too far East. Still feel we are entering quite a favorable pattern even if this particular window fails. Alot to transpire still before this and a chance or 2 the next 10 days. Eta: just saw the 6z GooFuS and is so close to a big hit but walks the line on a swing and miss (caveats: op run at range etc, but general window still reflected) Here are the gefs and eps for reference around this time:

Imho thats going to be more an Aleutian low signal than an Alaska proper vortex. That look presented actually gets us in +PNA territory and verbatim would move the PNA ridge axis near the benchmark (Idaho iirc). I would be ok with the epo easing a bit as this look takes shape going into the waning days of Jan/early Feb. One thing seems certain at least, anyone that declared winter over is likely in for a rude awakening shortly.

Philly Eagles interviewing Todd Monken for possible OC job. You Ravens folks, what are your thoughts.on him when he was in Baltimore? Im not very familiar tbh

Probably not the popular opinion here, but Chuck is a damn intelligent hobbyist that supports his ideas with facts and is, believe it or not, pretty unbiased. His timing may be off ie reading the room, but I dont think he cares. He's not going to pump our hopes with false promise based on gut instinct. His stuff is always fact-based.

@stormtracker please tell us youre keeping notes

Increasing optimism. Remember, this is a Wendy's.

Aside from being a mere deterministic solution, is actually a fairly decent rendition of how I see the pattern progressing over the next 12ish days. Some will disagree, but we actually have some stable large-scale features/tellies that make the Jan 27-29 period less a mirage and more a legit possibility. Leading up to this week, we had upper features up top shuffling around all over the place. It is no wonder the LR guidance had been struggling. But we are finally establishing a quasi-stable h5 structure with the epo ridge, ao ridging, and even some semblance of an Aleutian low out on the PAC side. I will refrain from gooning, rather I will suggest increasing optimism on my end for post 1/25.

Seems to be starting to warm up to that period around Jan 27-29ish I've been gooning about. Not to say thr 24th cant work, but I think that lays the baro zone and gets the cold air established for the followup.

EPS also well offshore for Sunday.

Euro didnt budge and is a good bit offshore. ICON ticked SE just a smidge with the Sunday system. Getting deja vu here with the GFS likely pulling a Lucy.

While all the focus right now is short term which isnt a surprise, cant help but feel good about where we're are headed later this month. The period from Jan 27-29 probably holds the best potential of the season thus far. AO flexing, epo still on roids, tpv being pressed into the NE, waves coming out of the west. Ens seem to be in good agreement attm. Let's get an appetizer this weekend to set the wheels in motion, then we can goon over late month if the looks hold.

60F ...but we should see some flakes flying this weekend regardless.

Need some euro support and I might budge. For now, going with the least snowiest model. Pretty good rule for keeping expectations in check.

So what is our least snowiest model attm? Euro? Just curious

Slower moving system. Noice.

Icon gives se pa a modest little event on Saturday

Period around Jan 27-29 is the one to watch. It is a window ive been seeing for a couple days now and I noted it in the other sub. Patience will pay off. 24-25 system is N or W then pushes the boundary under us. Followup should be able to do something with cold air in place. Whether thats a weak overunning wave or an amped up thump to mix type, we will have to wait and see.

Just saw. Maybe not a discrete threat for the 27-29 period yet, but not surprised to see some operational surface teases based on the ens means h5 panels.

Dont have latest eps, but really like what it was hinting at 0z for after the 27th