Ralph Wiggum

The bluebirds have been around for about 2 weeks now, heard a woodpecker yesterday, and saw a bluejay today. I dont know annual birding patterns so for all i know those three species are active year-round. Regardless, winter is over. Wouldn't be shocked to see flakes or accums 1 more time as a fluke, but overall winter packed it's bags and is done.

Fool me once with the LR gfs snowstorms shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Well, I'm back and I'm taking the walk of shame.

Well, we got the epic psu event yesterday that partially verified and now we have the great @Heisy storm he has been touting between March 4 and 10 iirc. And Bastardi says a March 1993 is looking likely. So be patient and buckle up.

I want no rain whatsoever thru November then flooding epic rains and 33f from dec-feb next year with a 1"snow march "eff you" thing

Im a C-2" guy but I will chime in. I can confirm i got 1.7 here. Was at half an inch until the narrow squall deathband came thru. Thought I heard thunder as well cant confrm that part. Little over an inch in 30 mins was insane. Ratios helped was 20F at that time too.

Ended at 1.7" here in ivyland. At 15.5 on the season

Heaviest snow of the day closing in on 2"...getting squalled

We got more than New England too? I think we're a snowtown once again.

Now you sound like my wife. Guess she's a closet winter weather buff or something.

I'm at the beer distributor if that counts

We excel at upper level troughs passing over us....always have.

Did we get more than the DC snowhole?

Currently on 309 south roads are a mess. Sun angle and junk

Agreed. This is just the last of the ull pass correct? I didn't see a norlun/iv trof signature unless I read the plots wrong.

A few drunk flakes falling here in Telford 25F.

Hey, I was sleeping....

That well-respected guy from that other sub forum did say this would be our best pattern all winter thru March 15, so we have that going for us.

That'll be the clipper to finally verify and we will end up 33 and rain probably at our latitude.

3k is having none of that

Wait did we just get NAM'd??

18z gfs says march coming in like a lion. March 2 and March 4 respectively. What could go wrong?

This was always an 'almost' all or nothing event. Anytime you try and work the tpv into the flow south of the Canadian Border and potentially a phase you run the risk. We walked the razors edge between a high-end mecs and a weakish wave/late bloomer. Unfortunately, the latter looks to prevail.

Whenever I see -epo forecast my first thoughts go to cold and no big storms. That's your nickel and dime teleconnection in general. As you said, give me an organic +PNA and a -AO. Nao phase isn't quite as relevant as many folks think wrt snowstorms here. It can snow in either phase. A -nao will tend to slow a storm down for sure tho. In short, I'm a firm believer PAC>ATL

This ^^^

The thing with this storm which was mentioned ad nauseum was the delicate balance between the tpv (or lobe of tpv) and the stj wave and how they might interact. This is why I go all march 2001 whenever I see that feature trying to get involved because a miniscule adjustment wrt the timing and Interaction of those features spells massive differences at the surface. That's why you hear me say we are looking at an all or nothing situation. This is the risk we run when getting the tpv involved. But with that said, the potential for a much larger storm exists as well. It's like playing the tables at a casino. You likely won't hit the jackpot unless you go big (involving the tpv)....and 99% of the time you ain't hitting....but that's the risk you take if you want a chance to win big. Or we can play conservative penny slots like we did all winter. All you're gonna win are nickels and dimes.