Ralph Wiggum

6z rgem had 4-6" snow before plowing the mix line due N and turning to sleet

6z GFS upped the ante:

CMC does not have the dropsonde data.

I thought you were out?

Then no I cannot confirm lol. Timestamp is different 12.23.25

Check date on that 12.23.25

Can.you please post the kuchera on that with a slightly more NE view?

Off topic, but since everyone is hanging in here, icon is sending a clipper into the flow midweek with this weekend storm acting as a 50/50 and the flow jammed up.

Is that a capture on the icon between 114 and 120?

Exactly. It seems the bleeding has stopped thus far at 0z.

?? We are about to get plastered with a thump of snow right after 84

Imma leave this right here (0z vs 18z...stronger banana high and puts that TV low right in its place)

From 75 to 84 the hp in NY doesnt move an inch

Confluence is displaced a little N this run with higher heights. Not sure we r going to love this. Initial thump will be nice.

I was just contemplating the same and yes, farther east. May make for a shorter duration system but will limit the heights rising and mix threat

You are correct. GFS and Euro will have it.

Can't help but think back to Jan 25, 2000 and the papers that were written after that surprise. Models and mets together were focusing on the wrong sw feature all the way up til 36 hrs prior. Maybe we are victims of something similar here. Not sure what surprise would be in store. Just thought it was funny we sitting here not sure what we are hoping for, same date 26 years later, same dilemma.

Watch the models decide to bury the sw out in baja at 0z now.

We need to unleash balloons from Hawaii and Guam to get the data. Seemed to work for China where they sent weather balloons to the US to sample sparse data areas for their weather reports a few years ago

These 'positive'(?) Changes on the NAM didnt make much positive difference on the euro. Are we hoping for the right piece to change?

@Maestrobjwa is going to be having a word with you

NAM is rolling. Not seeing any major changes thru 3 hours.

Hurricane Schwartz posted a couple videos on social media. Common sense stuff...ignore the social media clickbait hype, dont trust anyone putting number amounts out yet at this range. He went onto add how well the euro ai and their ens have been verifying since early last summer essentially leading the way in model guidance. He then said this is actually an easy storm to forecast believe it or not, and will come down to i95 basically being the demarcation for the farthest n and w the mix will generally get with big amounts just to the left of that zone.

18z euro continues to slowwwly shave snowfall amounts near i95 and introduce more sleet and ice. 18z euro ai took an appreciable jog N. Need the bleeding to stop soon.