Ralph Wiggum

Euro crapped the bed too and the JMA went from a bomb to a total NS disaster. Thus is the winter of La Nina.

JMA went all NS...kiss of death

Pretty sure we know how this will play out, but it's still fun to get the rust off and do some sort of tracking.

That is my concern here. Nina climo says mostly N stream and the STJ wave gets shredded as it heads east. Nice mix of scenarios on the ens members. Like a few have said, not a strong signal for a major storm but certainly something we can have enjoyment tracking. It does weaken on several ens, so maybe.

Clustering of lows starting to show up on the GEFS with weakening GL low.

Nice clustering showing up off the Mid Atl.

All major global models on board still for a trackable event centered around the 22nd. Doesn't look like a blockbuster but a small window is there to give parts of the region some snow. Originally posted back in mid Nov that around Jan 4 would be the first respectable event of the season. Perhaps things are being rushed to the pattern change/MJO phase transition? Keeping a close eye on it for now. CMC/JMA most aggressive followed by GFS and Euro.

Weak signal but a small window in a Nina which are what we will need if we want to cash in.

Is this what TWC is calling it? JMA on board....probably the best look so far:

JMA on board as well...a bit faster tho. Over a week out, but a decent signal at this range for something to track. Few timing changes and an op bomb away from the board coming to life. Eta: seriously tho @RedSky, how can u write this off already? Or r u just trying to open discussion? Genuinely curious.

Maybe, but what else should we discuss?

Euro...50/50, PNA ridge, neg NAO, SER keeping anything from sliding, PJ dipping, STJ vort rolling ENE. Might not be perfect and all the usual caveats apply given the range, but it keeps showing up and slowly improving. Probably a little too late to get er done verbatim this run, but plenty of time.

Ops beginning to see the threat centered around Dec 22. STJ energy meandering East, transient PNA ridge popping, neg NAO. Brief window but in a Nina these opportunities are what we look for. Probably the first real threat so far in the overall Nina pattern.

Not sure you can guarantee a snowstorm, but one of your brief and better informed posts.

Euro on board. Big storm for Mid Atl to New England. Haven't looked at thermals, dont particularly care much at this juncture. Small window here as the trof west/ridge se reloads. This is one way to score in a stubborn Nina pattern as the pattern reloads itself.

CMC just a hair late. Probably a bomb for the fish this run. Long way out no sense picking an op apart but I will say given an historic look at Nina and STJ response, doubt the southern energy remains that far South. More likely to be weaker and more strung out farther N. Just my random musings.

OP at range but sniffing out the threat centered around the 22nd. Should start seeing more fantasy runs over the next few days. Still a signal on the ens....nothing overwhelming but a window nonetheless.

Big changes on the ens for the week of the 20th. The @The Iceman thump to rain on the 20th still possible but looks like models have moved this threat up in time to the 19th with vorts racing thru the flow. Not clear how much cold air will be available at the onset....setup seems very marginal for now but certainly something to watch. The followup longwave pattern/system around the 21st/22nd holds potential and has me more intrigued as it is dependent on a rare Nina southern piece of energy meandering across the US via the STJ. Models are all over the place with the handling of that wave.....GEPS/CMC want to keep it in tact but zip it along the STJ with a zonal flow. The GEFS absorb the wave into the PJ and ride it to the West of us. GEFS do have some decent members that show the potential if the timing and wavelength play in our favor. The Euro is probably the closest in popping a big storm as it keeps the wave somewhat in tact and tries to amplify it via phasing along the Mid Atl coast....something a few of the GEFS portray. The EPS have it but not quite as enthused on the means tho I am sure there are some hits on the individual panels...haven't checked. Lots will change and much is dependent on the PNA ridge popping and how deep the NAO ridging becomes and the location of said ridging.

Not gonna lie, zoned off into this prog that looks a face. The 2 eyes have a hypnotic effect.

Week of the 20th has some good potential. Wouldnt be at all surprised to see a larger storm somewhere in the East during that week leading up to Christmas. Southern energy rolling across, active PJ being forced South as the PNA pops briefly and ridging enters the eastern NAO region. Euro/GFS family of models all over this threat:

This setup is starting to look better. This period has been popping a transient but stout PNA ridge and has southern energy meandering East with the blocking propagating towards Greenland from Scandinavia. These looks are getting nearer and time so I am starting to believe this pattern shift isn't just a head fake. Eta: maybe not a "pattern change" totally as it could prove to be transient. But in Nina I have learned that it is these pattern reloads where we have our better chances and need to eventually cash-in during late Dec/Jan.

I suppose SWFE/gradient events could work out with the -PNA but iirc it helps to have a -AO in place also for those to work out for both of our respective regions. Otherwise the gradient tends to relax to our N. A strong 50/50 under the -NAO would help also which has been hinted at in the LR ensemble with weakness hanging out in that region.

Funny, I was going to use that exact storm as an example but didn't want to imply we would have a redux this year.

LR certainly looking a little better in the Atl. Hopefully the cold air source doesn't get pinched off and disconnected as the TPV tries to settle into Western Canada/Alaska. One thing at a time tho....we need the Atl to play nice...thats a huge piece in this Nina....so I do like seeing that aspect improve on the LR ens.