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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    LR ens....ridging in the NAO region, 50/50 anchored in place, AO going negative, big EPO ridge, weak SER.....looks like a decent overunning setup. What could possibly go wrong?
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Also, there are waves of warming happening in the Strat and the SPV is showing sign of being displaced and/or elongated. I dont think the 'boring' pattern will last much longer and will add that by early January we should have several tellies working in our favor (-AO,-NAO, +EPO).
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    Not sure if it will matter or how much, but the Nina appears to have peaked and is beginning it's gradual forecast weakening:
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Agreed, Christmas week were weak signals but windows of opportunity, tho it isnt looking like either wave will work out for us right now. GEFS/GEPS show an extended 50/50 signature after 300 hrs all the way past the end of their range. Add in the tanking -AO forecast during that week and maybe it's gametime.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Kicking the can sucks doesn't it?
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    That PJ energy on the means continues to stay farther separated from the STJ. Pretty sure we are slipping away from a phase on the ens and more towards a weak southern slider. At least we have the EPS Christmas eve miracle threat.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Looks like the system for early next week fell victim to the Nina. Fell apart on the ens and streams stay separate, no phase...Southern wave slides out to sea. However, several of the EPS members are showing a Christmas Eve miracle setup. So there's that.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Easier to see the +2/3 SD here:
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Meso banding...wouldnt bet my house on that verifying 144+ hours out let alone 24 hrs. Overall this is depicting a N and W or even central PA hit. Ocean temps off of NJ above normal. Coastal plain to fall line at least would have issues based on that. But alas, just another solution about a week out still.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    Alot of this storm this run comes at night....except this panel as it tries to close off midday Tuesday the 21st. Boom:
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    0z gfs follows suit. Improvements all around this run. N and W crushed. Nice storm...
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Not sure this will get it done. Oddly enough the EPS kill the GLL and focus (weakly) on the progressive coastal low where other guidance is trying to anchor a low in the GL region. Still some time for changes and the signal is still there but the window remains small and the signal remains weak.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro crapped the bed too and the JMA went from a bomb to a total NS disaster. Thus is the winter of La Nina.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    JMA went all NS...kiss of death
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Pretty sure we know how this will play out, but it's still fun to get the rust off and do some sort of tracking.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    That is my concern here. Nina climo says mostly N stream and the STJ wave gets shredded as it heads east. Nice mix of scenarios on the ens members. Like a few have said, not a strong signal for a major storm but certainly something we can have enjoyment tracking. It does weaken on several ens, so maybe.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Clustering of lows starting to show up on the GEFS with weakening GL low.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Nice clustering showing up off the Mid Atl.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    All major global models on board still for a trackable event centered around the 22nd. Doesn't look like a blockbuster but a small window is there to give parts of the region some snow. Originally posted back in mid Nov that around Jan 4 would be the first respectable event of the season. Perhaps things are being rushed to the pattern change/MJO phase transition? Keeping a close eye on it for now. CMC/JMA most aggressive followed by GFS and Euro.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Weak signal but a small window in a Nina which are what we will need if we want to cash in.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Is this what TWC is calling it? JMA on board....probably the best look so far:
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    JMA on board as well...a bit faster tho. Over a week out, but a decent signal at this range for something to track. Few timing changes and an op bomb away from the board coming to life. Eta: seriously tho @RedSky, how can u write this off already? Or r u just trying to open discussion? Genuinely curious.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Maybe, but what else should we discuss?
  24. Ralph Wiggum
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro...50/50, PNA ridge, neg NAO, SER keeping anything from sliding, PJ dipping, STJ vort rolling ENE. Might not be perfect and all the usual caveats apply given the range, but it keeps showing up and slowly improving. Probably a little too late to get er done verbatim this run, but plenty of time.
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