Ralph Wiggum

Aside from this 24-hr current transient shift to a neutral PNA, when the PNA is progged to actually shift to positive and is under 100 hours out, then our window is opening. Until then as we enter Jan, we are going to be relying on historic climo, and I'm not sure we can count on this like we did 15 years ago. Eta: fixed typo

Once I saw the MJO getting discussed ad nauseum elsewhere 2 weeks ago, I knew exactly where we were headed. I made a "heads up" post regarding MJO for 2 winters ago that also got stuck in the same manner but was told that this time is different. Im not looking for arguments, hopefully we get some true discussion, but I would rather just be honest (different than a deb btw) than be like a JB-type dangling carrots and making people think things are golden. Yes, we will have a period of winter sandwiched in this season. It happens in even the most unproductive winters. My point isn't to cancel the season lol. It is to factually discuss the repetitive pattern until there are LEGIT mid range signs that it is going to shift around. We need the PNA to shift first and foremost imho but with the Nina and the PDO phase the way it is, that's a double whammy and tough order but it can and will happen eventually..just not sure when. Lots of patience.

The SER is going to continue to show as flat after day 10 with a weakness thru the Midwest and extending into the 50/50. This would be great most seasons. And this isn't just saying this is Nina, it sucks, deal with it. This is a fact if you go back over the past several weeks. This is the 3rd time we've been headfaked into some mythical pattern change recently. Then once the ens get under 10 days the SER shows stronger and begins linking with the NAO. Wash, rinse, repeat.......for now. I will likely be wrong in my thinking that the NAO may save us this winter and be a key factor. It looks like the -PNA and SER via Nina are our big players and we are going to need help from those for our window to open.

Early January just got can-kicked thanks to a full lat ridge linkup in the East between the SER and NAO. This was a legit concern of mine a week or so ago that I posted about, but I decided to try and point out some positives on the ens. That method isn't working anymore and there is no sense sugarcoating things. Going to be a winter that requires tons of patience and we likely get a 7-14 stretch of actual winter if we are lucky.

Side bar on these ens....the SPV takes a pummeling the next 14 days. Looks to split at least once as waves of warming bully it around. There is usually a correlation with HL blocking and the strat, so there's that on our side wrt the NAO/AO/EPO hopefully.

Gone at 12z . Flip flop. Nina doing what Nina does best. Lots of head fakes on the ops. Best to go with the ens for the LR and even such, take with a grain of salt.

Exactly. And probably wouldn't have raised a red flag on the LR ens had we not repeated this pattern already. Keep those two ul ridges separate entities and we probably strike gold.

Mid feb to early March will rock tho...lock it up.

Problem is, it hooks up with the SER on several ens members and forms a mild full lat ridge in the East US.

My bigger fear is that we get a deep west-based neg NAO and it links up with the SER and forms a mid lat ridge in the East. Need to keep the two ridges from linking up and allow waves to ride across and over the flat se ridge rather than pull a full lat ridge. We shall see....there are signs on the ens that this is a possibility. If the two ridges link up then it is game over/shutout for a period. One thing at a time....lets get the neg NAO established first and foremost. Eta: reason I see this as one of our possible fail scenarios.....neg PNA and tendency for subsequent ridging in the se is the background state so far in this Nina. And we've seen the ridge go full at times...tho mostly transient thus far. See no reason for either feature to fade fast given the current enso phase.

Keep the neg NAO / AO looks and we will be given chances with the -PNA and the flat SER. Without the HL blocking we would be looking at 50s/60s regularly and not a chance. So while we may not even cash-in on these windows, it's better than a complete shutout pattern. Likely going to be a patience-testing pattern and in reality when all is said and done, we may get a legit 7-14 day period of winter sandwiched into this season.

Have been watching the 10mb spv on the gefs for a while and the waves of warming. Nothing earth shattering like last year where the pv split several times but when the pulses of warming have shown and there is even the slightest bullying of the spv there is a correlation with the higher heights building in the NAO propagating from Scandinavia. Some key features setting up the next 14 days will be the East based -NAO retrograding to a thumb ridge in the N Atl to a West based -NAO. The GEFS idea make sense to keep the PNA generally negative with the lower heights in W Canada and the NW US feeding a very positively tilted -PNA trof. Cold air source will originate from the NW and keep pressing down under the -NAO and 50/50 tandem tango. We never really see the SER completely flatten but that isn't a bad thing as we move later into January. Big window coming up as the pattern continues to step down and look more mid-winterish especially headed into the New Year. If the NAO look persists, which I think it will despite some of the climate modeling LR forecasts, chances will be plenty moving forward.

Said back in Nov that we would get tired of mid 40s to low 50s and partly sunny stretches. So far has lived up to hype of a Nina with no real excitement or storminess. Going to need patience this year. Also said at that time that the biggest key to the winter will be the NAO phase. Some changes are coming to my outlook for JFM that I will try and post later.

LR ens....ridging in the NAO region, 50/50 anchored in place, AO going negative, big EPO ridge, weak SER.....looks like a decent overunning setup. What could possibly go wrong?

Also, there are waves of warming happening in the Strat and the SPV is showing sign of being displaced and/or elongated. I dont think the 'boring' pattern will last much longer and will add that by early January we should have several tellies working in our favor (-AO,-NAO, +EPO).

Not sure if it will matter or how much, but the Nina appears to have peaked and is beginning it's gradual forecast weakening:

Agreed, Christmas week were weak signals but windows of opportunity, tho it isnt looking like either wave will work out for us right now. GEFS/GEPS show an extended 50/50 signature after 300 hrs all the way past the end of their range. Add in the tanking -AO forecast during that week and maybe it's gametime.

Kicking the can sucks doesn't it?

That PJ energy on the means continues to stay farther separated from the STJ. Pretty sure we are slipping away from a phase on the ens and more towards a weak southern slider. At least we have the EPS Christmas eve miracle threat.

Looks like the system for early next week fell victim to the Nina. Fell apart on the ens and streams stay separate, no phase...Southern wave slides out to sea. However, several of the EPS members are showing a Christmas Eve miracle setup. So there's that.

Easier to see the +2/3 SD here:

Meso banding...wouldnt bet my house on that verifying 144+ hours out let alone 24 hrs. Overall this is depicting a N and W or even central PA hit. Ocean temps off of NJ above normal. Coastal plain to fall line at least would have issues based on that. But alas, just another solution about a week out still.

Alot of this storm this run comes at night....except this panel as it tries to close off midday Tuesday the 21st. Boom:

0z gfs follows suit. Improvements all around this run. N and W crushed. Nice storm...

Not sure this will get it done. Oddly enough the EPS kill the GLL and focus (weakly) on the progressive coastal low where other guidance is trying to anchor a low in the GL region. Still some time for changes and the signal is still there but the window remains small and the signal remains weak.