Ralph Wiggum

Unlike years past, we have basically all of Canada below normal temps, so plenty of cold air hanging out to the N. If Canada were void of cold, pretty easy to figure out things are bleak. But with all of that cold air still around, I really dont think we are done yet. Whether its next weekend, the PD weekend, or maybe sometime in March, we are going to have at least one more trackable large event. That cold air need to go somewhere...hopefully it continues getting funneled into the lower 48.

GFS and others have the W edge of precip nosing into E PA tonight as light accumulating snow.

Maybe a sneaky nickel and dime event for some tomorrow? NAM has snow and sleet Monday AM coating to 2" then came way west with the low tomorrow night with snow/rain into E PA:

WRF wants to do some icing. Extreme SE PA in the crosshairs:

RGEM is on board. Going to be light whatever falls but happens at the right hours to make driving a little sketchy in the morning.

18z NAMs both have coating to an inch tomorrow morning for rush hour with some sleet mixing as well. Doubt we see much accumulation but might make the AM rush slick with temps in the upper 20s and low 30s north and west. Hints at a second burst of snow right along the river overnight Monday.

Yet the eps, gefs, and geps have hardly a reflection at the surface during the same time. Don't ever recall all 3 ops honking at this range out with basically little to no ens support at all. Mind blown.

Then you look across at all 3 ens families and have to dig to find an individual member or two that even remotely support what the 3 global ops have at the surface.

Mentioned in the PHL group but how odd is it that all 3 major global ops have the V-Day storm in one form or another and are really close to something big-ticket but all 3 ens means have virtually nothing? Weird right?

Is DT intrigued?

Global ops all have a signal for right around Valentine's Day. GFS is all N stream and a sloppy late phase at best...keeps the southern sw separate: Euro is a phased bomb but has that classic look going into the event: The CMC is probably our best case look with a phased system that remains progressive and doesn't amp up quite like the Euro: With this said the ens aren't exactly honking, so it's even more intriguing to me that all 3 global ops have a trackable event during this period while the ens means are just meh.

The op is cold and stormy moving thru mid month...borderline weenie run with chances. Awaiting the GEFS fwiw.

Almost textbook +PNA with EPO ridging up top. Definitely a window next weekend with those looks and stj energy moving thru. Maybe the trough can sharpen this go 'round instead of being just a broad trough as has been the case with some recent storms. ^^slightest ridge over Greenland, looks to be waning tho.

RGEM and others really close to making Mon-Tue an 'event' for parts of the region. Temps are marginal but with proper timing, track, and intensification it could actually creep up on us and work. Been trending better last 24 hrs. Miller B-ish where it develops off the Carolinas but probably a hair too late for us but we'll see what happens. Worth keeping an eye on anyway:

29F and a quick burst of pity flakes...all snow

31F freezing drizzle and flurries mixed in Ivyland.

Looking ahead, the most recent GFS op/GEFS are showing more of a tendency for ridging in the NAO region and still hanging on to ridging out West. This is something to watch starting 6 days from now. The quiet period may not be so quiet nor last very long.

The King has been dethroned

Thought it was ironic that one of the members here was saying they will wait until after the Presidents' Day storm 2022 before throwing in the towel on the rest of winter....then the first model run that extends beyond even fantasyland towards the 2nd part of that holiday weekend shows a system moving thru. Track away!

Agreed, we are just discussing. Thanks Iceman for the stats above. I said it way back in Nov and I am sticking to it. The odds for a larger storm this year are higher than normal. Solar min lag finally caught up, record widespread cold to the N in Canada and Siberia, a locked in EPO ridge and CPF at times. These are some of the things which make me believe Feb will pull a wild card storm. For the life of me I cannot see N and W burbs ending this much BN in snowfall. Maybe BN overall at the end still, but with all that cold around still, we are in a good spot. Late year Nina often show decent Atl blocking like we saw way back in the beginning of the year. Sandwich of a +NAO inbetween -NAO phases. If we had a puke PAC and we were going into the 2nd week of Feb and Canada was void of cold air, the we are probably closing the blinds and canceling winter. That stuff takes weeks to recover. There have already been several larger storms....some off the coast, some hitting S and E, some hitting New England. Yes, progressive systems so no KU yet. But if blocking in the Atl does pop up which I feel it should based on the pattern progression, odds for 1 or 2 more larger systems exists. But even with the lack of a big ticket storm or even a KU if blocking shows up, we aren't done just yet. To get where many have gotten this year in a Nina is extraordinary. I think we are all going to share in that soon. But to that. I also understand where some folks are at. Frustrating being BN and seeing other areas repeatedly getting pounded and near or AN. Nature has a keen way of balancing out. Keep the cold air source and the parade of vorts with the TPV on our side of the hemispheric near Baffin Bay and I will take my chances with all else factored in attm.

So which one is it? You agree with Iceman to punt Feb based on the "10-15 day models" or is 10 days out complete fantasyland? Not following your reasoning tbh.

And before anyone says ^^ it's too far West, its a fragile setup, etc keep in mind this is 10 days away and might vanish completely let alone be too tucked. Point is, dont take verbatim but know thay chances are still showing and we aren't in a close the blinds pattern by any means.

GFS and many of the GEFS ens members say mother nature has a way of averaging/balancing things out and to wait until after mid month before even considering writing Feb/winter off. This has been "on the radar" and quite a vigorous signal for a LR lead time for a few days now....consistently:

You are punting our peak climo and snowiest month on Feb 3? Gutsy call. Good luck with that.

I've seen more geese, robins, and finches the past few days in my yard than any other early Feb I ever recall. Also must have been a hatch of ladybugs...not sure where they live/breed in winter....but 5 live ones in the house today flying around. Must have them in the walls or something, not a bad thing tbh.