CT Rain

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

3K NAM was trying for a sunrise surprise.

Yup. Nice look for the sunrise spinner. 

11 hours ago, WhiteLawns said:

Tonight in Torrington CT! I think I may be the luckiest man on earth with this timing!

Can I share this on the news tonight? This is awesome. 

17 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Looks like it should be tornado warned, no? 

There's been some side lobe contamination there so the occasional couplet has been a bit of an artifact.

Basically the stronger winds from aloft in the overhanging core are getting "smeared" down to 0.5 degrees where there is very little reflectivity.

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol at today being modeled as rainy as recent as 00z and it’s turned into a fairly nice day for all with at least partial sun in places 

Yeah pretty big model bust today. Even the 6z/12z runs today struggled. 

The 18z GFS has has Bret giving birth to a baby TC that races toward ACK next week. 

Funny evolution lol

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro. Woof.

Hideous run. With that look we won't be talking about Stein until after Labor Day at least lol

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yeah right  

Not going to count on that happening, but this setup I think can surprise if we can destabilize enough. Pretty intrigued with bulk shear and degree of directional shear going on. 

Yeah can't rule out a spinup with some decent low level shear.

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I am wondering though if farther south (or southwest) into CT would be better...as in better chance for stronger storms given dews should be higher. 

Hopefully the HRW FV3 will verify for you. 

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Not you guys lo,l DIT and TIP are usually on the Bermuda Blues.

lol I'm waiting for these dews to mix out

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Disappointed our locals here failed to mention the Bermuda blue afternoon 

? We were predicting a partly sunny day. 

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What a hideous 12z model suite for the next 10 days.  Cool and wet. Should put a major dent in drought talks if this pattern delivers. 

No Stein to be found on the GFS and Euro. Dreadful look. 

13 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Looks like eastern areas could get the BD on Monday. 

I think all of us do

12z GEFS are definitely pointing toward MDW danger.

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

EURO folded as expected when it’s on an island by its own. Huge west shift.

Congrats Tolland.

lol was going to say. Maybe I'll show the euro at 11!

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

But why not use todays 12z Euro for continuity? Since you used it all week.. why not continue?

You're impossible.

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How come Euro animation all week on air .and then tonight made a switch? 

The 12z Euro from yesterday has 1-2" of precip for most of the state. 

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You are on record on air with 3” of rain for CT. We are sure hoping you are correct! 
I’ll also note .. all week .. every evening.. you showed the European model animation and qpf on air . And then suddenly tonight .. you didn’t . You showed the HRRR. Interesting .

lol I said that this was one model depiction and most areas get 1-2" but some areas could see more than 3... just not sure where.

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NYC/NJ folks that jumped all over HREF and HRRR wild runs may end up upset. Just throwing that out there. 

You have an odd obsession over this rain event.

If it was winter you'd have locked in 18"-30" regionwide. 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

This favors west imo. Maybe an arc of downpours moves east in evening. I could also see an arc of WAA rains moving in during the aftn.

I agree. HREF is a soaker for WOR.

Steined on the 12km NAM, soaked on the 3km NAM.

22 minutes ago, radarman said:

Nothing personal but here's to a nice big ridge over your head

lol 

Booked a place in Whistler again for a week next January. Hope El Nino doesn't screw it up!

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3k Nam and Nam say W and C SNE are Stein. Wagons SE

Better not look at the 18z. 

On 5/12/2023 at 6:17 AM, SouthCoastMA said:

Sagamore bridge construction finally over, after two months of hell. what a disaster that was

No kidding. It was awful the two times I had to do it. 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

AN month.  Plentiful sunny days with a few cloudy afternoons. Everything fully leafed out and growing.. lawns mowed .. Shorts everyday . BN rains but plenty of ground moisture . Nice spring rolls on 

Drunk.