CT Rain

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

There's definite upside bust potential in W CT with that ULL.

Too bad there wasn't a fresher airmass in place....prob would be talking more widespread double digit potential.

Yeah could see some tree issues W CT and Hudson Valley too. 

Friday night's event has a few things going for it. Upper level low is tracking a bit farther north and it dives right over NYC which is always interesting for areas just north. 

Also, the GFS is showing some impressive snow growth under the heavier band with max lift right around -15c.

Wouldn't be surprised to see some 10 spots in SE NY or even SW CT. 

NAM is now on board. Pretty impressive look now for W/SW CT with that H5 low track squeezing underneath. 

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I'm not concerned with the EPS, at least at this stage. If anything, we now have pinned this down to a very narrow corridor of track/development. With that, it's all just going to come down to precise timing of when the phasing occurs. I suspect we are going to be walking a fine line until probably 24-hours out b/c a very slight difference (slightly earlier vs. slightly later) is going to mean the world (for many). 

I'd be. Little cold around and nothing to prevent this from becoming a stemwinder over Kevin's fanny.

Toaster bath

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It tries to a few hours later. Some interesting runs tonight.

Yeah you can see that inverted trough develop as the northern stream forcing starts lowering surface pressures but the southern stream isn't ready to phase yet. You're only a few hours of a phase off from a bomb. 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Gfs is an inv trough at hr 126 lol. 

It's trying though.

A bit closer than 18z. Baby steps.

Wow - the GFS is bullish. 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh Man  

 

that’s beast mode on GEFS there.

Looks pretty warm overall to me. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Obviously hills are better, but that is at the very least a bonafide warning event here...I'm on the NH border nust outside of 495.

Not to mention I still think this can capture a hair later. 

Oh I didn't realize you were in Methuen now. Yeah... better up your way. 

For many we need a bit more cold around. It's a little too borderline. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it's fine here. I don't agree.

I guess rain to snow for many. The BL starts out very warm inside of 495 and for many areas south of the Pike. 

May take a while to dynamically cool to paste. Would rather be in the hills for sure. 

Just now, weathafella said:

But to Scooter’s point, 925s are extremely marginal.  This would need its dynamics to work and that’s always harder.

Yeah it's not a good solution outside of far interior/elevation. 

Even Kevin is rain verbatim. 

Looks like a lot of rain.

Just now, CoastalWx said:

GEFS look like just east of the Cape. 

Yeah looks quite good. 

When the GEFS are that much more amped than the op run I'd lean in the ensemble direction. 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

GFS will be a scraper. Rather progressive.

But damn it's close to a bomb. 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, least of my concerns RE that is the signal pulling another disappearing act.....that said, OP has been ampy.

Rains to Maine. Congrats Berkshires.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

18z EPS looked like it was about to launch. 

May be a bit too launched haha

GEFS look better for next week's threat compared to 12z. 

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

 

Mean is 6 inches across CT. Does not look great.

I don't understand?

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS a scrape this weekend.

Also a pretty big trend south with less QPF from 00z to 06z to 12z. Not great. 

12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Almost everyone has dreamed of those types of public transportation.  It would be the sweetest thing... a loading terminal and then just a ride above the ground over a series of miles... what an attraction on its own, ha.  The nightmare on these types of things during off hours is an evacuation needed or significant delays due to an issue that might require several people to fix.  Need good on-call protocols that have a high number of staff/rescue personnel to evac a gondola in general, much less at 10pm or something like that Telluride to Mtn Village gondola.  I can only dream of a lift like that around here.  It would be a game changer, however impossible it is.  Maybe in 50 years someone tries it.  Things change quickly sometimes over time.

When I was in Mountain Village last year someone told me that the entire gondola is funded by a 1 or 1.5% tax on all property transactions in town. During covid when the market exploded they now are running a surplus of millions and millions of dollars. They even have their own car service in Mountain Village... just call a number and they'll pick you up and bring you to a lift of gondola free of charge. 

As much money they have around Stowe it's absolutely next level in Telluride and it's all very compact which works well for a gondola as mass transit.

On another note I was in Medellin, Colombia this summer on vacation and they have an incredibly cool mass transit system that includes an awesome subway system that links up to a fairly complex gondola system to take you from the subway to the neighborhoods on hilltops. I actually spent an entire afternoon bar hopping via gondola and subway connection because I'm a dork. 

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

From an operational standpoint that’s awesome. It seems simple but running a gondola until 2am takes a well-oiled operation. That’s some awesome public transportation.

The gondola is run by the town of Mountain Village and not the resort. Basically mass transit for people who buy 10M dollar homes haha

Just now, JKEisMan said:

Gorgeous. I’m there every other spring/summer for a TSRC (telluride science research center) workshop covering molecular science.  Always stay in Mountain Village taking the gondola down to Telluride. Lots of great hiking and biking. Haven’t made it out there for skiing yet but your photos make me want to go :-) 

Yeah it's pretty incredible. They don't get nearly as much snow as other places in CO but the town and resort are spectacular. Basically no lift lines the entire weekend and you're able to take the gondola until 2 a.m. from/to Mountain Village after a night out. 

I did some of the chutes off Gold Hill which were a bit more than I bargained for haha 

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep looks better 

For sure. Big jump in snow probs too. 

Just got back from Telluride. What an amazing town/resort.