CT Rain

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All I can tell you is what he’s got on air and texts. He’s all in 

Yeah I have 50-60 mph gusts. Saying widespread outages as that's what Eversource is saying and to prepare people for the holidays. 

I do think there's the chance for some bigger gusts in/around convection but that can always be tough to accomplish. 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Who cares what BOX has? Why are so hung up on them? Stick with Ryan. He is excited. When he goes big it’s rare and it’s for a reason 

I'm neither excited nor going big. 

Probably not going to lose much pack up north but rapid temp drop is going to turn it to a glacier.

Maybe a bit better end of the week as temperatures warm a bit and the snow softens some?

Could see 1-2" of Sound Effect Snow SE CT and South County RI

I don't get the "wind forecasts always underperform" thing. I feel like most of our forecasts verify fairly well at the ASOS stations. If you're looking at the HRRR/Euro or whatever raw model output though and taking that as a forecast you're going to be disappointed.

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ryan is aware, but that tide is going to be bad on the CT coast? 

Yeah could be impressive. Wave action on a southerly wind always creates more issues than you’d expect with a given tide level. 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

12z HRRR has some SHSN too. Nice hit for the outer Cape.

A nice setup for the south coast with OES... even as far west at SE CT.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah guidance kicked up a bit. Nasty winds along front and just after fropa.

A few opportunities too. Convection along the warm front, better low level lapse rates after the warm fropa with a bit of warming, and then possible violence on the cold front. Pretty interesting setup. 

NAM/HRRR definitely have trended toward a more impressive wind event in SNE. It may rock in some towns tomorrow AM.

The NAM is quite lame as has been mentioned. 

Woof.

Maybe disaster averted for NNE? Looks like some snow on the front and back end and dew points struggle past 45F. 

These are about as impressive as you'll see. Also... 60 knots at top of the mixed layer out of the NW as the storm passes.

GFS may be too well mixed (and NAM too inverted) - but throw in some convection this definitely is worth watching.

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Sorry. It's just my personality. The older I get the more the media freaking annoys me. I do appreciate your forecasts and I used to be a weather Watcher for Brad back in the mid 80s. Hell, I still have a Paul Cousins wvit hurricane tracking chart!

I get it. In 17 years here I've never had anyone tell me or even implicitly pressure me to change the forecast.

In fact more often than not if the forecast changes for the worse (tornadoes, more snow, higher winds) it's met with groans and annoyance by everyone in the newsroom as it means more work, longer days, etc. It's sort of funny but it's actually the opposite of what most people probably think goes on. 

4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I don't buy it for a second, it never happens. This is not meant as a dig against Ryan, but when you work for a media Outlet such as his a little bit of massaging and hyping seems to be a necessity these days

lol OK

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

Gfs at day 7 had an east coast blizzard everyone was ready to call historic and two days later it’s showing 50 and rain; yet at day 12 some are sure there won’t be any upslope to fix it? Not saying it looks great, but isn’t 12 days an eternity? Though I saw a decent clipper around the 29th on a few runs.


.

Pattern doesn't look great.

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam is wedgy for the first part of this. Even in SNE it’s east winds and the strongest LLJ is ahead of warm front. Not sure it would strengthen much again from the south ahead of the cold front.

Yeah the other models were hinting at this earlier but the NAM is definitely pretty lame. 

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah need a natural snow storm to fix it usually.  Grooming and some random snowmaking help but it’s not like everything can be resurfaced.  It becomes tough with snowmaking too if expansion or resurfacing and how to allocate those resources.  Sometimes holiday week is just making sure as much as possible is open instead of snowmaking again on already open terrain.

Sucks to not even have a nice upslope event after the rain. 

2 hours ago, uncletim said:

Looks like a scary ski holiday coming up: bulletproof surface + holiday crowds + limited trail count. Recipe for tragedy and I hope resorts lean on the safety messaging.

Yeah pretty ugly setup for Christmas week. Doubt i'll be able to salvage even decent conditions at Stowe a week later when I'm there for New Years.

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Great post. I think models are a little lost with snow qpf in that massive sprawling comma head. What a blizzard! Thats going to look impressive on visible Sat.

NB

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks widespread to me. At least as of now.

GFS MOS has 39knots sustained later Friday and Saturday for BDR. 

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah some just don’t catch that. I’ve seen that too. 
I was more arguing that the 6hr method imo is the more truthful way to gauge snowfalls.

Yeah agreed for sure. And also nice when places report 12z snow depth. Can get a nice gauge there.

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The 6 hr method around here doesn’t make a huge difference. A lot of the storms involve wind and helps to compact. I haven’t noticed a huge difference doing both methods. 

I could see differences appear in the softly fallen fluff though. Like when Jspin measures a dendrite and calls it 0.4”  But, I also think it makes for more true measuring because when it’s snowing an inch an hour all day and you have 6” to snow for it, that’s not really truthful either. That’s when the 6hr method comes in handy and more truthful imo.

Biggest issue is when stations measure only at 12z and you had a snow to rain situation the day prior. 

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe VT escapes with least impacts? Maine is soaked with rain as it stands now. 

Hopefully the picnic tables do OK

Mt Snow was exceptional today. Powder stashes all day. One of the better days I’ve had there- even hit the trees off Olympic on the North Face a few times. Guessing about 2ft fresh there.