CT Rain

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

This run will wake NWS BOX up. The 925s collapsed after deepening offshore switched winds away from that INVT circ. That's a condo collapser

Idk. It’s a really bizarre evolution on the  NAM. Not sure what to make of it. 

The soundings and 2M temps off the NAM are definitely not what I’d expect for a low near ISP. What a pasting around here. 
 

I can’t recall an evolution like that IMBY.

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

They quickly become iIsothermal. You can breakdown precip types. You can how Ryan’s HFD has BL issues

6-10" when it's 34 or 35F in Mansfield as this model shows would be something.

Again.... clown maps and clown ptype algorithms can lead you to dark places. 

The inverted trough trend today should be a big caution flag for CT/RI outside of the NW Hills. 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I know. He posted the one hour that WeHA was 0 at 925. And probably dim sun falling 

actually that's during the meat of it. I do think there's some longitude assist in play here south of the Pike. 

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

You think we get crushed up here?

Yeah looks good up your way!

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Def would not want to be in a valley . Clowns show it clearly 

Eh?

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nah let them have fun  

It's funny that the clown map brigade is convinced 1-2 feet for most is a good bet. 

Beware the clown maps.

Just saw the GFS. Jesus.

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Seeing the ensemble clusters made me feel somewhat better. OP is def on the northwestern 10% of those members. I also like how the trend on the EPS was to rotate it back ESE a bit faster. They really aren’t gaining much latitude north of CHH now. 
 

Thats not only good for limiting some of the warming, but it keeps much if area under favorable midlevel dynamics longer. 

High res op run may be picking up on some cyclogenesis along the inverted trough a bit better than the coarser ensembles but it is nice to see things consolidate pretty quickly. 

The 12z Euro soundings were pretty warm here in the BL. Hopefully we can work on that a bit in later runs. 

That's a nice look on the EPS overall. Still worried about some warming initially here a bit farther south but can't complain much.

Just now, dendrite said:

The longer you keep the inv trof look the more waa you’re advecting into the region…gotta start backing those winds sooner. 

Yeah I think the "dual low" thing isn't really worth tossing. It's just a reflection of surface pressure falls along the inverted trough prior to full phase/capture. 

So even if the low isn't as distinct in reality that E/SE flow ahead of the inverted trough will do some damage to the BL. 

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol I swear everytime you post something positive for a dumper the opposite immediately shows up on modeling lol. But you are right it looks good for a majority of Ct

lol you're not wrong. I do think that even the "good" looking tracks are going to have issues here in the valley with a pretty torched BL. Going to be a needle threader. Feel better for W CT though as it looks like the congrats ALB scenario is less likely. 

Just now, TalcottWx said:

It's really just a matter whether it's w CT or e CT that gets the jack at this point, I would say. I'm concerned for power outages. This is man snow. 

Well I'm not that certain. The Euro is still torched in the boundary layer and verbatim is a lot of rain out of the hills. 

Starting to get more bullish here in CT. The tucked trend has slowed or even reversed. Not much cold air to work with but may be just enough given the very well timed bombing/occlusion to bring the heavy stuff here.

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s an epic GGEM solution. Closes off everything well south of SNE. 

How we pray. Jeez. 

Verbatim GFS is a deck destroyer here. Sure does thread the effing needle though. 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a lot of posters today ( some I’m surprised at) thinking this won’t take the clustered elbow/ cape / Climo favored track . 18z GFs already started the tic east . More to follow 

lol

Those clown maps off the GFS are hilarious... especially considering the models cold bias and how the soundings look verbatim. 

Parachutes in West Hartford and rain in Tolland? Sign me up. 

The NAM has the "look" at H84 lol

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Lol 3km nam is all rain for southern ct and 91 corridor 

12km is very warm in the boundary layer. 

Selfishly I don't mind a somewhat earlier bombing south of Long Island. 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve got 3-5” E CT and 4-8 “ W CT

You just texted 6-10"

GFS is nice for many. Definitely a step toward the Euro.