CT Rain

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty much all of the I-35 corridor cities in TX will get totality. San Antonio/Austin/Waco/Dallas. Waco is right in the middle though so they’ll get it the longest. 

Yeah I debated heading out of the city but figured I might as well just stay there. Dallas gets it a bit longer than Fort Worth. 

On 12/28/2023 at 8:17 PM, radarman said:

Just booked to Springfield OH and will proceed N from there.

Texas would be better but good luck to anyone trying to drive out to totality from the metroplex.  That's gonna be a sh*tshow to say the least.

Might as well just stay in Dallas, right? 

I'm flying into DFW on Sunday. 

2 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Looking forward for my first 20s of the season...

Lows are expected to be in the low-20s/upper teens for most. The NYC metro will be be drop into the upper-20s while far interior areas may see mid-teens. These temperatures are only a few degrees to 5 degrees below normal, but still some of the coldest we have seen thus far this season.

 

You haven't been in the 20s yet?

12 hours ago, Sn0waddict said:

Damn a 90 mph report? That’s crazy

It was a 1-sec gust and not the 3-sec ASOS standard. I wonder what a reasonable conversion factor would be between 1-sec and 3-sec. Maybe 85%? 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When you see Reggie go big on winds .. you know you’ve got a big boy . Reggie usually mehs these

Can't say i've ever looked at a Reggie wind gust map. Probably won't start now lol

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

But did they ? Mesos nailed it 

They spit out 50-60 knots for every event like this. Very few actually do it.

My point was that this one it was clear that it was possible given how the soundings looked. 

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’ll add a hat tip too. I’m always going to lean against high-end events but think there’s a lot of value in admitting when my thoughts are wrong. 

The raw wind gust maps from the models are such a cancer. They're almost completely worthless.

Looking at the soundings on BUFKIT you could see as early as Friday that this one had potential to be a big problem in spots in a way that the typical events don't. 

What a bummer for ski country. Okemo was a lot of fun this weekend. Certainly not great but the snow was soft and the crowds weren't bad at all. 

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Bag full of meh on the wind potential 

The soundings on the GFS and Euro aren't really meh at the moment. 

57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z gfs went flaccid 

Yup. Meh. 

GFS turns Monday AM into a decent snowstorm for Vermont. 

34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Won’t be like the ones we had in the 90’s with trees bent to the ground.. but if these soundings are anywhere close to correct .. there’ll be 50-64 mph gusts .. mainly south of pike and east of a Springfield/ HFD line. Basically the area that sectors. We’ve seen these so many times.. it’s generally that setup 

You're just making things up. 

37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes that’s what I immediately remembered when I saw Hermit Lake. Phin had a couple diatribes about how misleading it was to call it “Gorham” in the PNS. They prob should at least put an elevation note on it…I’ve seen PNS reports do that before. 

@OceanStWx needs to get to work on this!

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I remember the scenes in NJ of all the damage on the coast and having it be covered in snow. Was something else.

Not too dissimilar from Windsor Locks on 10/10/1979. 

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

BTW, 11 years ago was the Son of Sandy. Was a siggy event in interior CT along the 84 corridor.

That was a fun storm.

13 hours ago, MRVexpat said:

104 Free? Amazingly versatile ski. Shouldn't be as quick and maneuverable as it is for all of that power and stability. 

Yup. Agreed. Was shocked at how well it handled virtually anything I threw at it last winter.

8 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Looking to buy a 2nd set of skis. Been skiing brahma's (188/88) last few seasons and I've always liked them, but wanted to try a wider ski, ~90s. I'm mostly an on-piste intermediate/advanced skier that'll ski mostly blue/black groomers, non-groomers. Can ski pretty much anything at SR except for the super tight glade stuff. Been considering the blizzard Rustler 9, Nordica Enforcer 94, Volkl Mantra M6. I'm 6'1", 155lbs and from what I've read, the Rustler would probably be best for me, but some reports of it being not as stable at higher speeds (2024 has full length metal edge so maybe better?) has me considering the other two.  I'd like to rip high speed GS groomers and the Nordica seems to fit the bill well. The Mantra, based on reviews appears to be a high charging heavy ski that at my weight may be more difficult to maneuver. Overall, I'd like a stable ski at speed, but still being able to execute quick turns on the steeper stuff. Any suggestions on these or other skis to consider?

I have Enforcer 104s that I got last year and love them. I ski out west a decent bit but also do a couple weekends in new England... was worried about the 104s but I thought they handled very well on groomers. I'm really happy with them. 

There was a pretty long duration TDS with this thing. From Brooklyn/Killingly all the way to RI/MA border.

Pretty subtle and dropped here or there but could be a relatively long track spinner.

Zzzzzzzz

May have to watch the mixing on the back side of the storm. With a decent pressure gradient if we're able to keep the sun we could see some fairly good northwesterly gusts even inland. 

Even the GFS has ~40 knots at the top of the mixed layer back here.

Who's going to put the nail in this thing's coffin and start a Lee thread?

That warm front means business for NYC/LI and maybe coastal SNE. Pretty classic sunrise tornado look. 

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Was shocked to see it expanded so far East. 

Pretty favorable CAPE/shear setup around 00z as far east as I-91.

If the NAM is right with the front timing Sunday could be fun for the coast Boston, Providence, New Haven, etc. Quite a bit of CAPE and deep layer shear. Could be some decent hail. 

NAM definitely has a nice severe threat on Sunday. Steep mid level lapse rates (~7c/km), MLCAPE over 2500 j/kg, and about 40 knots of deep layer shear. Could definitely see some big hailers and wind if that verifies. Favored areas probably include the coast with the front overhead and westerly flow. 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

She ain’t coming. She gone.

At least it wasn't snow