CT Rain

Yeah - we actually see the downslope issue a bit more up along the Mass border near Springfield then we do in the Hartford area. It's not a huge thing unless we have a really ripping ENE flow. It's normally fairly negligible. On storms where we're kissing the northern end of a shield of snow... or even a decent deformation band... the northerly ageostrophic dry drain can be lethal here.

I feel like a lot of what Kevin attributes to upslope is really just other factors that benefit elevated locales. For example, on a storm with NE flow... occasionally drier air in the boundary layer will advect south (locally chanelled flow too) down the CT River Valley resulting in a dearth of snowfall from Greenfield Mass to Hartford. When ORH is 24/22 and HFD is sitting at 27/18 it's time for me to tie the noose and jump off the Bulkeley Bridge. That's not downsloping... but it is Kevin doing better because of elevation and avoiding the northerly dry drain. That's a much bigger issue for MBY than downsloping unless it's some really effed up storm like 12/92 or that awful retrograde storm that totally sucked in 2014.

Imagine how well the Tolland hills did on the epic SE flow Westerly ocean effect snow storm that Ginx lived through!

What a dumpster fire that storm was for us. The worst part of it was that the reason we got screwed wasn't even a good one... I could see downsloping, dry air draining down the valley, or even pinging too fast... but that odd standing wave pattern was just absolutely brutal.

I would have preferred 45F and sunshine than live through that storm again

How's the other parameters besides Kp look?

KMWN 230150Z 30014KT 40SM FEW/// FEW010 FEW150 SCT200 07/06 RMK TPS LWR FEW050 HZ DSNT ALQDS AURBO

Awesome shot - Did you get this in Dutchess Co?

Are Bz and Kp related? For example will a positive Bz hurt the Kp or are the 2 indicies unrelated?

What is Bz? Why is it important?

I saw that... though Kp has dropped from 8 to 7 in last update.

The GFS is absolutely hideous. Dear Lord. What a nightmare this storm has been for NWP. Radar looks OK though - so maybe the 00z NAM isn't too far off?

Forecasting all-time records generally isn't a good idea. I still think 18" for HVN and BDL though.

GFS is like 5-10" for NYC. This will be fun to see how it performs lol

GFS has really backed off QPF in general. Meh. Thankfully - it's the GFS lol

Interesting that the HRRR/RPM etc are wayyyyyy southeast. I wonder what's doing it.

Op Euro is also a touch west of the ensemble cluster/mean too. So it is possible the Euro is a bit too far west.

We did it before.

Exactly. No one knows. Is the NAM a possibility with the heavy snow from the Berks/NYC - absolutely. Could be be 50 miles too far west - absolutely. Not sure why you're melting down over it. Of course it's possible.

I think it's certainly a possibility. Not everyone will jackpot with 2 feet of snow. There will be an ugly zone of subsidence east of the super-band.

Even places that dry slot in mid levels like E Mass could get some good stuff that continues with lots of cold above the boundary layer and nice convergence on the coastal front.

I gotta say I am totally amped for this. Both the GFS and NAM (and I'll infer the Euro too) have just remarkable dendritic growth - I've honestly never seen anything like this on BUFKIT.

When you're forecasting a record snowstorm for the biggest city in the NYC you better hope they crack the top 10. A 15" storm is a big deal but it's not crippling, paralyzing, or historic for the city.

Meh that storm sucked

We've seen convection screw up thermal profiles due to latent heat release but this was pretty rare.