CT Rain

My sense is that it all winds up south with the MCS coming out of the Great Lakes tonight. But given the time of year (warm SSTs) will have to watch that screaming LLJ.

Sorry for your loss, Jay.

I mean at least what I've read everywhere was that it was unclear whether this variant was more dangerous/deadly... though it was clear it was much more transmissible. Even if it is as virulent as prior variants (for arguments sake) even places with low vax rates... those who are vaccinated skew toward those who are high risk and elderly. So just that alone would bring down bad outcomes significantly.

Delta also won't last forever. places with low vax rates in the south will have an ugly August with it but elsewhere there is a lot of protection from severe disease thanks to prior infection and vaccination. In Europe we're already starting to see things turnaround as Delta peaks with far lower hospitalization rates/deaths than previous spikes. India's spike was vicious (and deadly) but it was also quite quick.

Yeah I think it depends on where. In Provincetown, MA which is probably one of the most liberal towns in America it's certainly not an issue. I do think international travel is going to have vax requirements for quite some time though.

There's one large venue in Provincetown that was strict about enforcing vax status and it was fine. No one cared and the line just took a while longer. And of course vaccinated people can still have and transmit the disease but the odds are lower than if you're someone who's unvaccinated. So yeah, you can still have an outbreak but it's just not as likely. It doesn't bother me if a restaurant or venue wants to enforce that. International travel is doing it too - at least to get into the Schengen Zone.

Choosing not to get vaccinated is a personal decision - but I have no problem not letting the unvaxxed into a packed nightclub or concert. I got a couple tests after going to Ptown to make sure I wouldn't transmit the virus to others. Thankfully negative. Going to test again before a wedding this weekend just to be double sure.

I know a ton of people who contracted COVID in Provincetown over July 4th weekend and all of them were vaccinated and wound up either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic with no worse than an annoying cold. It's time to move on now that we've decoupled the deaths/hospitalization curve from the case curve. Hard to institute lockdowns or strict mandates for the purpose of protecting those who chose not to get vaccinated.

Yeah I actually went back and looked at it just now and I think those are spurious outbounds. The damage is about 2 miles north of where that "couplet" was too.

I think there was some side lobe contamination there. The data looked a bit noisy.

I think the good flow at 700mb and nice 0-3km CAPE and decent lapse rates make up for some of this. I bet it's a pretty active day.

Agree with this.

I think it's a decent look. Relatively steep mid level lapse rates, ~40 knots of westerly flow at 700mb, etc. I think we get some good bangers.

Yeah, there will no doubt be outbreaks in the south this summer with Delta but since the mRNA vaccines are quite protective there's only so much people can do. If you chose not to get the shot, that's your choice, but we shouldn't start locking stuff down because of it.

Sunday may raise some eye brows.

We put together this web page with some links and radar grabs. https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather-news/stories/remembering-the-2011-massachusetts-tornado/2495528/

Did Wiz go to a little league game today to commemorate 10 years?

Awful news. He was so passionate about weather. RIP James.

Definitely. Was surprised when I saw that look to see so little CAPE explicitly modeled. Worth keeping an eye on.

Has a decent look synoptically but very little CAPE as modeled. Will be interesting to see if this changes over time.

Yeah when he announced the 5/19 full reopening he sort of hedged on masks. I'm guessing that changes today - just depends on how quickly they can draw up the EOs and get them out.

Ha, a few I guess. But definitely will be nice to be at a bar and a crowded concert.

nightclubs, standing at a bar, 100% stadiums/concerts, <6ft distance at restaurants. Will be on the 19th.

He's gotta do it soon. Connecticut is 100% open in 6 days. 8/1 makes no sense with vaccines widely available.

Correct, they still have the wrong number for 95-96 as the data in April got thrown out as it was incomplete. So it's sort of a mess. At least they're not using zero to compute the normals (how that made it through QC is beyond me). I just go with a 50" seasonal average and call it a day.