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CT Rain

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    The cold fropa could be very nasty. Sounding is for New Haven.
  2. CT Rain
    50 knots MHT and 55 knots HIE
  3. CT Rain
    HFD gusted to 50 knots at 554a.
  4. CT Rain
    Yeah it’s roaring here in West Hartford.
  5. CT Rain
    HREF with a nice little Sound Effect Snowstorm for SE CT and S RI
  6. CT Rain
    Looks like around daybreak with the warm front and then near cold fropa. But in the warm sector mixing looks pretty good so could be pretty gusty then as well.
  7. CT Rain
    In Hartford? 50+ wouldn't surprise me.
  8. CT Rain
    00z models definitely increased the wind threat here in CT some. Pretty nasty looking signal tomorrow. Also, a bit more concerned about the coastal flooding with less of a lull modeled around high tide tomorrow morning.
  9. CT Rain
    3km NAM really loves the convection along the warm front.
  10. CT Rain
    It's weird.
  11. CT Rain
    No. The numbers are hard coded into their matrix. So a Level 4 event is by definition 125-380k outages. It's not hype it's completely reasonable.
  12. CT Rain
    If I was them I'd do the same. 125k is not a crazy outage number for CT. They have to file the "Level 4" with PURA before the storm and they had a really hard time as it is getting crews in from outside because this storm was so expansive. Seems like a reasonable worst case scenario to me.
  13. CT Rain
    No. It's CT. But it's also a bad headline. They're predicting a Level 4 event which would mean 125k-380k without power.
  14. CT Rain
    Yeah for sure they're overshooting. Most likely scenario is widespread advisory and scattered outages but there is definitely some potential for some higher end stuff with convection.
  15. CT Rain
    Yeah I have 50-60 mph gusts. Saying widespread outages as that's what Eversource is saying and to prepare people for the holidays. I do think there's the chance for some bigger gusts in/around convection but that can always be tough to accomplish.
  16. CT Rain
    I'm neither excited nor going big.
  17. CT Rain
    Probably not going to lose much pack up north but rapid temp drop is going to turn it to a glacier. Maybe a bit better end of the week as temperatures warm a bit and the snow softens some?
  18. CT Rain
    Could see 1-2" of Sound Effect Snow SE CT and South County RI
  19. CT Rain
    I don't get the "wind forecasts always underperform" thing. I feel like most of our forecasts verify fairly well at the ASOS stations. If you're looking at the HRRR/Euro or whatever raw model output though and taking that as a forecast you're going to be disappointed.
  20. CT Rain
    Yeah could be impressive. Wave action on a southerly wind always creates more issues than you’d expect with a given tide level.
  21. CT Rain
    A nice setup for the south coast with OES... even as far west at SE CT.
  22. CT Rain
    A few opportunities too. Convection along the warm front, better low level lapse rates after the warm fropa with a bit of warming, and then possible violence on the cold front. Pretty interesting setup.
  23. CT Rain
    NAM/HRRR definitely have trended toward a more impressive wind event in SNE. It may rock in some towns tomorrow AM.
  24. CT Rain
    The NAM is quite lame as has been mentioned.
  25. CT Rain
    Woof.
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