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CT Rain

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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    I think most of elevated VT should be fine. Looks like 20s for most of the event along Rt 100.
  2. CT Rain
    We chuck.
  3. CT Rain
    3km NAM is a blue bomb for Kevin or a few hours overnight. Definitely has ticked colder for NE CT.
  4. CT Rain
    Nice to see the HRRR and NAM with 20-30" for Mount Snow and Stratton tomorrow. Anyone heading up? I'm hoping that since the bulk falls by Friday afternoon Rt 9 and 100 shouldn't be too much of a sh*tshow Saturday AM. Temps should be in the 20s for most of the event which should prevent it from being a total blue bomb thankfully.
  5. CT Rain
    Yeah certainly could flip to wet snow or cat paws for a bit. Not sure it has much staying power though.
  6. CT Rain
    I think Scott's earlier point is a good one... deep easterly flow with warm SSTs off Massachusetts do a number on the boundary layer EOR. Still around -1C at 925 which is good but low level warm advection in the boundary layer off the Atlantic PLUS dynamics that are OK but not extreme (as Scott said) probably is the difference for places like Kevin and Winter Hill? Seems like that longitude assist (plus some nice upslope diabatic cooling) will help out Litchfield Hills and Berks.
  7. CT Rain
    I drive so little now living so close to work. I've got an AWD sedan so it should be fine.
  8. CT Rain
    Hope my car can get to Mount Snow Saturday morning lol
  9. CT Rain
    NAM is definitely warmer around here. Even for Litchfield County a great thump through 12z and then we warm up quite a bit after that with sleet/rain.
  10. CT Rain
    I wouldn't expect much where you are. Not a great location for an event like this. A 5 minute drive to North Canton will get you in the goods though!
  11. CT Rain
    Yup agreed. Maybe Burlington too but that's about it.
  12. CT Rain
    In CT? The Rt 10 corridor is pretty low elevation. That area rarely does well.
  13. CT Rain
    Yeah the 12km run looks weird. Much different look on 3km.
  14. CT Rain
    I'm struggling there. I wasn't even being a jerk to Kevin... just seems like longitude may hurt by 1 or 2F compared to Litchfield Co.
  15. CT Rain
    Yeah the map has warning criteria snow for one town. They never normally issue warnings for the whole county when that happens so idk what that's all about.
  16. CT Rain
    This is their snow map.
  17. CT Rain
    First cut pending the 18z NAM
  18. CT Rain
    I agree. I think 6-12 is a good bet in that area.
  19. CT Rain
    INteresting to see the snow probabilities from the NBM and WPC be so low too. Basically <10% chance of >1" of snow for Tolland/Union. Even NW CT is pretty low.
  20. CT Rain
    Yeah it's close. Was thinking the easterly flow probably hurts him a bit compared to NW CT. Even the hires models (3km NAM/HRRR) are a good 2F cooler at 2m to the west. Seems like some longitude assist WOR.
  21. CT Rain
    Think the boundary layer is cold enough even for Kev? Litchfield County looks good to me but the soundings EOR not looking great to me right now.
  22. CT Rain
    Yeah it can't go too crazy given the upper level setup. Not like we're getting a crazy bomb that's closing off at 500mb. It's sort of a SWFE with some redevelopment off the coast.
  23. CT Rain
    Will be an interesting event for sure. Something a bit more dynamic with that op GFS track would be fun.
  24. CT Rain
    My worry with that is they're just weaker which isn't really great either. Not sure the op GFS would get it done with a weaker and more strung out system.
  25. CT Rain
    Yeah you can see that on the model 2m temps... there's definitely a bit of longitude assist there. I think Litchfield Hills and Berkshires will do very well being a bit farther west plus some upslope assist/cooling.
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