yoda

Just to do the quick math... 170 to 180 kts is 195 to 205 mph

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023 The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have found that Lee has skyrocketed to category 5 strength. The aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 148 kt and trustworthy SFMR winds slightly over 140 kt, and dropsonde data shows that the minimum pressure has plummeted to 928 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 140 kt, and Lee's maximum winds have increased by an incredible 70 kt over the past 24 hours. The hurricane has a clear 15 n mi-wide eye, with an infrared eye temperature as warm as 21 C surrounded by convective cloud tops as cold as -76 C. Additional strengthening appears likely, as Lee remains in a low-shear environment and over very warm waters near 30 degrees Celsius, and there are no signs of an imminent eyewall replacement. In fact, based on guidance from UW-CIMSS, the probability of a secondary eyewall formation during the next 24 hours is well below climatology. There is some chance that moderate deep-layer southwesterly shear could develop over the hurricane, but this could be offset by strong upper-level divergence and thus have little to no impact. To account for the recent rate of intensification, the NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids and shows a peak intensity of 155 kt in 12 hours. Amazingly, the 1800 UTC HAFS-A and -B runs show a peak intensity between 170-180 kt, but that's getting into rarefied air. The NHC forecast will be adjusted accordingly if those solutions begin looking like a more distinct possibility. Only very gradual weakening is shown after 12-24 hours, and it is likely that Lee's intensity will fluctuate for much of the forecast period. Lee is forecast to remain a dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane for the next 5 days. For the next 5 days--through next Tuesday evening--Lee is expected to maintain a steady west-northwestward track, passing well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. The hurricane is currently moving at about 12 kt, but it is expected to slow down considerably through early next week as the steering ridge to its north builds southwestward, effectively blocking Lee's progress. The NHC track forecast remains of high confidence through day 5, and again, no significant changes were required from the previous forecast. Although there are some indications that Lee might begin a northward turn around the middle of next week, it is still way to soon to focus on specific model scenarios that far out into the future. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lee has become a dangerous category 5 hurricane, and further strengthening is forecast overnight. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. 2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in the northern Leeward Islands beginning Friday. These conditions will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the weekend. 3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday. Continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 17.3N 52.4W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 18.1N 54.0W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 19.1N 56.1W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.0W 145 KT 165 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 20.9N 59.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 21.5N 60.9W 135 KT 155 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 22.1N 62.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 23.2N 64.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 24.1N 66.6W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Margot is also here

Guess we wait until tomorrow... another SLGT risk day as well

Pretty cool looking outflow boundary on Radarscope

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 339 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... North central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 430 PM EDT. * At 339 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Haymarket, or 7 miles southwest of South Riding, moving north at 25 mph. HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Leesburg, South Riding, Herndon, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Brambleton, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Linton Hall, Sterling, Chantilly, Countryside, Haymarket, Arcola, Oatlands, Gainesville, Belmont, Catharpin, and Gleedsville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside should move immediately to shelter inside a strong building. Stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3905 7735 3877 7756 3881 7772 3911 7766 TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 194DEG 21KT 3887 7763 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

Quarter size hail observed at the LWX FO

Numerous reports of trees down

@EastCoast NPZ looks like you got hit nicely

That cell west of MRB... woof Radarscope max hail size 3"

Watch up until 9pm

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 108 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 VAC069-WVC003-065-071730- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0303.000000T0000Z-230907T1730Z/ Frederick VA-Morgan WV-Berkeley WV- 108 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM EDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL MORGAN AND NORTHERN BERKELEY COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... At 108 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Greenwood, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Martinsburg, Greenwood, Berkeley, Hedgesville, Johnsons Mill, Cherry Run, Tomahawk, Glengary, Johnsontown, Omps, Shanghai, Spohrs Crossroads, Oakland, Spruce Pine Hollow, Stotlers Crossroads, Highland Ridge, Jones Springs, Valley High, Unger, and New Hope. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3968 7810 3963 7803 3960 7801 3960 7799 3952 7788 3935 7822 3946 7833 TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 227DEG 22KT 3950 7819 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH $$

That was a pretty impressive hail core a few scans ago in E WV

RTPLWX Max/Min Temperature and Precipitation Table for the Mid-Atlantic National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 811 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Values represent highs and lows since 1 AM LST (06 UTC), and precipitation over the last 24 hours (since 7 PM LST yesterday). .BR LWX 0906 ES DH19/TAIRZS/TAIRZI/PPDRZZ : : Max Min :ID Location Temp Temp Pcpn : : First-order and climate sites BWI : Balt-Wash Marshall : 100 / 73 / 0.00 CHO : Charlottesville AP : 99 / 71 / 0.00 DCA : Reagan National AP : 98 / 75 / 0.00 DMH : Baltimore Inner Hrb.: 99 / 81 / 0.00 HGR : Hagerstown Rgnl AP : 96 / 69 / 0.00 IAD : Dulles Intl Airport : 100 / 69 / 0.00 MRB : Eastern WV Rgnl AP : 95 / 63 / 0.00 NAK : Annapolis Naval Acad: 90 / 75 / 0.00 :

What is FourCastNet? Never heard of it before until you tweeted it above

Why does the LWX radar show a line of showers but Radarscope shows nothing at 750am?

@MN Transplant morning AFD from LWX mentioned dewpoint mixing I believe in the short term discussion part .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Well above average temperatures continue into this morning. Normal morning lows should be in the upper 50s to low 60s this time of year, depending on your exact location, and many areas are still around 70! More of the same is expected today as we saw on Sunday. High pressure to the south and a strong upper ridge will set the stage for a very hot air mass over the region. Winds out of the WNW could again result in significant warming in downslope flow, especially for areas up next to the ridges. Could see many spots make a run at 100 today, but most will see mid-upper 90s. In fact, some spots may even reach record highs today (see climate section below for more details). Humidity will again be manageable, through it will still feel plenty hot. Dew points in the 60s should keep us out of and advisory criteria, but it will certainly be close, and anyone outdoors today should still remember to keep hydrated and take plenty of breaks in the shade/air conditioning. Going into tonight, temperatures may even be a touch warmer overnight than we saw this morning. Some spots could see record warm overnight lows. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The hottest days of the week look to be on Tuesday and Wednesday. The pattern remains similar, with the ridge aloft strengthening ever so slightly. Temperatures at 850mb warm a degree or so each day Tuesday and Wednesday when compared to Monday, with values anywhere between 20-24 deg C. This, paired with downsloping winds, should yield afternoon high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. Maintaining thoughts on humidity, as the downsloping winds will crash the dew points (perhaps even more than currently forecast). Think we remain below advisory criteria once again on Tuesday, but Wednesday could come very close. Either way, that doesn`t take away the fact that it will be extremely hot during this time period, and you should be taking proper precautions to avoid heat-related illness. Overnight lows remain very warm both nights, with record warmth during the overnight possible once again.

76/67 at 3am

I believe that you have done well with this call

TOASTY!

Moving NW at 240... preparing to recurve at 972mb

989 at 216. 00z was 986 and 12z yesterday was 969

1004mb at 168 passing north of all the islands

Until it weakens at 144

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Heading out of the Labor Day holiday weekend, conditions remain seasonably hot with legitimate opportunities to break daily temperature records. An expansive ridge encompasses the entire eastern U.S. with little downstream movement as an upper low remains parked south of Nova Scotia. This particular upper low will contain the post-tropical remains of Idalia. Looking toward the middle to latter portions of next week, an upstream trough should eventually erode the persistent ridge across the northeastern U.S. This ultimately favors a pattern change and a return of shower and thunderstorm chances. For Tuesday and Wednesday, 850-mb temperatures are forecast to rise into the 22 to 24C range. Given deep mixing, dry adiabatic profiles within this layer would support highs well into the 90s, locally approaching 100 degrees. The 00Z GEFS and 18Z EPS ensemble probabilities show around a 50 percent chance at a triple digit reading somewhere between the Blue Ridge and I-95. Skies should generally remain devoid of clouds given the ridge. One wild card in this pattern is the humidity which will dictate how high heat indices become. For now, modest rises in dew points should hoist heat index values into the 97 to 102 degree range. While this would fall short of local Heat Advisory criteria, those outdoors should take the necessary precautions to mitigate any heat-related illnesses. This would include taking shade breaks, wearing light clothing, and staying hydrated with plenty of water. Of course, do not leave anyone, including pets, inside a locked vehicle.