yoda
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Posts posted by yoda
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12 minutes ago, high risk said:
Wednesday is pretty interesting. The shear will be off of the charts, and wind damage and tornadoes seem possible in any sustained surfaced-based storms. But how far north will the low-level warm air get? Pretty good agreement it makes it into southern MD and also pretty good agreement that it doesn't make it north of the DC Beltway. The in-between zone (including DC) has a fair amount of uncertainty.
When you say low-level warm air, is that related to or correlate with the warm front? Or is it something different?
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Morning AFD from LWX on the threats
couple of rounds of thunderstorms moves across the area this afternoon and evening, and some of these are likely to be strong to severe. In areas where the CAD remains the severe threat is going to be from elevated storms producing hail. Model soundings indicate around 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and strong shear will be present, so some of these storms could produce large hail of 1 to 2". SPC has the CAD area in a Marginal Risk for severe storms today. The Slight Risk for severe storms has been expanded slightly eastward along/south of I-66 to the Fredericksburg area, and extends west along US-48 up through western MD. This is where storms pushing in from the OH Valley will have the most favorable environment of surface-based instability, strong shear, and large scale forcing for ascent. Given the cold temperatures aloft and elevated instability present, it is certainly possible a few supercells develop along the I-64 corridor that are capable of producing hail of 2" or greater. A tornado or two cannot be rule out, though that threat is confined to the far southwestern CWA (peak threat around Highland County). After the main severe threat window passes, expect a wet night as widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms continue moving across the area. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The large cutoff low over the OH Valley slowly pivots eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic. Strong forcing for ascent is going to be present across the region, with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms ongoing sunrise Wednesday. As the morning progresses, a wave of low pressure will cross east of the Blue Ridge, rapidly deepening as it moves toward southern NJ. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is likely to develop along/east of US-15, then rapidly push eastward across the area through Wednesday afternoon. Even though instability is low, there will be an incredible amount of shear as the triple point of the surface low crosses the area. In addition to damaging winds, QLCS tornadoes will be a possibility. SPC has upgraded parts of the area to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5), with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for most areas along and east of the Blue Ridge.
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Day 2 OTLK out... SLGT risk i95 and east... MGRL i81 to i95... 2/15/15... this is for Wednesday
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ay 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OHIO...AND INCLUDING ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A potentially substantial severe weather outbreak -- possibly including a few significant/long-track tornadoes -- is evident for Tuesday afternoon and evening, with highest probability centered over the Ohio vicinity, and extending southward across the Tennessee Valley. Some severe risk exists as far south as the Gulf Coast, and as far east as western portions of Virginia and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... While a positively tilted upper trough moves across the central third of the country Tuesday, a more compact/energetic short-wave feature is expected to dig aggressively/quickly southeastward across the Upper Midwest, gradually evolving into a closed low as it does. By Wednesday morning, the deepening low is progged to reside over the Illinois vicinity. At the surface, a low initially over the Missouri vicinity is progged to deepen as the upper system digs southeastward, shifting northeastward across the Midwest through the day, and then occluding northward into Lower Michigan overnight. A cold front associated with the low will sweep across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley through the day, and the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee/Upper Ohio Valleys overnight, crossing central/southern Appalachian Crest late. Meanwhile, a warm sector should expand as far north and east as central and northeast Indiana/northern Ohio/western Pennsylvania, though limited in northward progress to West Virginia/northern Virginia/Maryland by persistent/slow-to-retreat cold-air damming over the Northeast. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Widespread thunderstorms -- including some degree of all-hazards severe risk -- will likely be spreading rapidly eastward across the Ohio Valley area at the start of the period. This convection should reach the central Appalachians by late morning/midday, but -- though potentially having some impact on destabilization potential across the MDT and ENH risk areas -- should largely shift far enough east to allow warm-sector destabilization to commence. As the surface low deepens and crosses Illinois and eventually moves into Indiana, and the cold front advances across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys, storm redevelopment is expected to occur during the afternoon. While evolution/storm mode remains somewhat difficult to discern -- in part due to earlier storms -- some mix of cellular and cluster/linear mode is expected to evolve. Given the ample destabilization expected in combination with very strong/veering deep-layer flow, all-hazards severe potential is evident, including very large hail, strong/damaging winds, and several significant tornadoes. The greatest risk, which will include potential for a couple of intense/long-track tornadoes, should begin across Indiana, and the spread across Ohio through the afternoon and evening, potentially reaching as far east as western portions of West Virginia and far western Pennsylvania into the evening. Eastward advance of the risk into central Pennsylvania will likely remain limited, but otherwise threat may spread into western portions of Virginia and the Carolinas late.
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Afternoon day 2 update from SPC has MOD risk in Ohio, ENH near W MD and SLGT risk east of i81 corridor
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2 minutes ago, TheWeatherPimp said:
The SPC Day 2 outlook is......real late. I hear via chat that a Moderate Risk is coming.
Correct, MOD up for most of OH
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FYI re the radar
NOUS61 KLWX 011347 FTMLWX MESSAGE DATE: APR 01 2024 13:45:37 THE WSR-88D KLWX IS CURRENTLY OFFLINE AS TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY PERFORMING REQUIRED MAINTENANCE. IT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON. && LFR
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35 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:
I think I might have had more thunder already than all of last summer LOL
My area has 12-ish inches of rainfall for the first quarter of the year and April looks to start off wet
So no being missed?
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SLGT risk for almost all LWX CWA into S PA on Tuesday and Tuesday night
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Day 2 MRGL up... 0/5/5
...Mid to Upper Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place on Monday across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located from southern Ohio east-southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. This boundary will likely be a focus for convective development from the daytime hours into the overnight period. Although instability is forecast to remain weak near the boundary, strong deep-layer shear will be in place. This should support an isolated severe threat, potentially persisting for an extended period of time. Hail and isolated damaging gusts will likely be the primary concerns. The severe threat will likely be more isolated with eastward extent, mainly due to more limited low-level moisture content across the Mid-Atlantic.
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Wind gust to 41mph at KDCA
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Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1043 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1029 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 5 ESE Bay Ridge 38.92N 76.36W 03/30/2024 M61 mph ANZ532 MD Buoy Wind gusts of up to 53 knots (61 MPH) were measured by the Kent Island WeatherFlow sensor (XKNT) between 10:29 and 10:34 PM. && Event Number LWX2402885-
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Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1046 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1030 PM Tstm Wnd Gst Saunders Point Light 38.88N 76.48W 03/30/2024 M62 mph ANZ532 MD Buoy Wind gusts of up to 54 knots (62 MPH) were measured by the Saunders Point Light WeatherFlow sensor (XMTR) between 10:30 and 10:40 PM. && Event Number LWX2402888-
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And now a TVS marker lol
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@WxUSAF what's with Radarscope showing two rotation markers?
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Special Marine Warnings up for the waters
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1 minute ago, Chris78 said:
Yes they are. If Bradish and Means come back healthy it could be a deep run in October.
Too bad my Rangers will be in your way
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Who wants some more snow? From this mornings AFD
Mountain Snow (Thursday/Friday): The first in a series of cold fronts crosses the area early Wednesday morning, as the base of the cutoff mid-level low moves across PA/NY. Colder temperatures surge into the Alleghenies by Wednesday afternoon, causing precip to transition from rain to snow by Wednesday night. Favorable dynamics and ample moisture could result in a prolonged period of upslope mountain snow. Marginal temperatures likely limit accumulations through Wednesday evening, then better chance for snow to stick Thursday into Friday. The GFS in particular is much higher than the other guidance, showing significant snow accumulations late in the week. At the very least 1-3", possibly up to 4-5", of accumulating snow is possible at the higher elevations. Light snow could fall as east as the Blue Ridge/Catoctins
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Morning AFD from LWX on the threat
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An active weather pattern is likely to develop during the middle to late part of next week, bringing possibly impactful weather to the area. A strong Southern Stream Jet overspreads the area, with a broad wave of mid-level energy phasing with a digging mid-level trough from the Great Lakes. This is could bring strong to severe storms and/or a flood threat to parts of the area Tuesday. The ensuing mid-level cutoff low slowly moves east, as additional embedded shortwaves rotate around the western side of the low. This could bring mountain snow Wednesday night into Thursday, as well as windy conditions to end the week. The current temperature forecast for Tuesday is highly uncertain, and will be dependent on precip, cloud cover, and the placement of a warm front somewhere over or near the area. The area could be wedged in the cooler airmass, keeping temps in the 50s, or warm advection scours out the low-level inversion resulting in 60/70s for highs. The first in a series of cold fronts crosses the area early Wednesday morning, bringing gustier and near-normal temperatures Wednesday through Friday. Severe/Flood Threat (Tuesday/Wednesday): A warm front is forecast to be draped across the CWA early in the week, likely producing a large north to south temperature gradient. This is going to play a key role in whether we see any strong/severe storms, and/or a potential flood setup if other conditions line up. SPC has most of the area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather for Tuesday. The threat appears to be greatest in the Alleghenies and south of US-50 where there is the greatest chance of instability developing. Around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE combined with a strong deep-layer shear (60- 75KT possible based on model soundings) could produce a favorable environment for all modes of severe weather. A residual severe threat is possible Wednesday in central VA. A flood threat could develop along or north of the warm frontal boundary where training storms result in heavier rain rates. These aspects of the forecast remains highly uncertain, be sure to stay tuned for additional updates in the coming days.
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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300840 SPC AC 300840 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A positively tilted upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will likely advance east-southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with a moist and unstable airmass in place across the region. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear, associated with the mid-level jet, should be favorable for severe storms. Wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes are expected in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with the severe potential extending eastward across the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. On Wednesday, the cold front is forecast to move to the Atlantic Seaboard. Ahead of the front, instability will increase during the morning. A severe threat could develop in some areas near the Atlantic coast early in the day, before the front moves offshore. Predictability is low concerning where the most favorable areas will be for strong thunderstorms.
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4 hours ago, Kmlwx said:
The last few GFS runs appear to be having trouble pushing better dewpoints and such north of the Potomac. It's pretty darn early still - but it's something to track that's not only in the Plains.
06z GFS does have steep mid-level lapse rates though... 7 C/KM to even some 8s across the region
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Don't remember seeing HWOs listing severe for 5 days out before @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1055 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-301500- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 1055 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Gale Warning is in effect until 6 PM for the Chesapeake Bay and adjoining estuaries north of Drum Point MD, and the tidal Potomac River from Key Bridge to Cobb Island MD. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday There is a slight threat for severe weather on Tuesday into Tuesday night. All severe weather hazards are potentially at play should the threat materialize. Isolated instances of flooding are also possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is possible on Tuesday.
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April Discobs 2024
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1010 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 MDC003-027-021715- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.W.0023.240402T1410Z-240402T1715Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Anne Arundel MD-Howard MD- 1010 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall earlier this morning is expected. * WHERE...A portion of central Maryland, around Elkridge Maryland in the following counties, Anne Arundel and Howard. * WHEN...Until 115 PM EDT. * IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 1008 AM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms earlier this morning. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Elkridge... Arbutus... Ferndale... Brooklyn Park... Linthicum... Lansdowne... Linthicum Heights... Hanover... - This includes the following Flood Prone Roads... Route 1 at Levering Avenue near the Patapsco, Route 1 at Pine Avenue, Race Road along Deep Run and Furnace Avenue at Ridge Road. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information