yoda

 


  ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 300840
   SPC AC 300840

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024

   Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
   A positively tilted upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly
   northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as an
   associated mid-level jet translates northeastward into the Ohio
   Valley. At the surface, a cold front will likely advance
   east-southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with a moist
   and unstable airmass in place across the region. Scattered to
   numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of
   the front Tuesday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear, associated
   with the mid-level jet, should be favorable for severe storms. Wind
   damage, hail and a few tornadoes are expected in the Ohio and
   Tennessee Valleys, with the severe potential extending eastward
   across the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic.

   On Wednesday, the cold front is forecast to move to the Atlantic
   Seaboard. Ahead of the front, instability will increase during the
   morning. A severe threat could develop in some areas near the
   Atlantic coast early in the day, before the front moves offshore.
   Predictability is low concerning where the most favorable areas will
   be for strong thunderstorms.

4 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

The last few GFS runs appear to be having trouble pushing better dewpoints and such north of the Potomac. It's pretty darn early still - but it's something to track that's not only in the Plains. 

06z GFS does have steep mid-level lapse rates though... 7 C/KM to even some 8s across the region 

Don't remember seeing HWOs listing severe for 5 days out before @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1055 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ053>057-527-301500-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-
Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
1055 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Gale Warning is in effect until 6 PM for the Chesapeake Bay and
adjoining estuaries north of Drum Point MD, and the tidal Potomac
River from Key Bridge to Cobb Island MD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a slight threat for severe weather on Tuesday into
Tuesday night. All severe weather hazards are potentially at play
should the threat materialize. Isolated instances of flooding are
also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible on Tuesday.

I'd say that's some strong wording for Day 5 for our region 

Tuesday/Day 5...
   The upper-level system is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks
   and mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. An associated cold front will
   likely move quickly eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley early
   in the day. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is
   expected to be in place by midday, with scattered to numerous
   thunderstorms developing in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the
   afternoon. The mid-level jet is forecast to move into the Ohio
   Valley by late afternoon, suggesting that a widespread severe threat
   will be possible. Strong deep-layer shear and lift associated with
   the jet would be favorable for supercells with a threat for wind
   damage, large hail and some tornadoes. The severe threat is forecast
   to extend southward into the Tennessee Valley, and eastward into the
   Mid-Atlantic, where scattered severe storms will be possible within
   a moist and unstable airmass.

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

It looked like it at the time lol... now there is still a few showers down there

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Rain looks east of progs?

What about what looks to be some development down west of RIC?

Lightning and thunder in the 40s lol

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
138 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024

VAZ025>031-038>040-507-508-WVZ052-053-210000-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-240321T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.HW.W.0005.240320T1738Z-240320T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0011.240320T2100Z-240321T0000Z/
Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-
Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Including the cities of Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft,
Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market,
Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville,
Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Big Meadows, Wintergreen,
Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown
138 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, west winds 25 to 35 mph with
  gusts up to 60 mph. For the Wind Advisory, west winds 20 to 30
  mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northwest and western Virginia,
  and eastern West Virginia.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, until 5 PM EDT this
  afternoon. For the Wind Advisory, from 5 PM this afternoon to
  8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

We really do wind well around here recently 

I'm tired of the wind 

There it is

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 56
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1035 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     southern Texas
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1035 PM
     until 600 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms west of the Rio Grande will spread eastward
   into southern portions of Texas over the next couple of hours. 
   Large hail will be the primary threat with these storms, though a
   few locally severe/damaging wind gusts will also be possible --
   particularly across the more southern portions of the WW.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
   statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest
   of Cotulla TX to 70 miles south southwest of Alice TX. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   26030.

Looks like a watch is coming soon for S TX 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0267.html

Mesoscale Discussion 0267
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0939 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

   Areas affected...parts of south Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 170239Z - 170445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected across parts of south Texas
   late this evening, some of which may produce hail and gusty winds. A
   watch may be issued.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing in northeast Mexico in
   advance of a subtle shortwave trough apparent in water vapor
   satellite imagery. Across south Texas, some nocturnal surface
   stabilization has occurred. However, an ACARS profile from San
   Antonio and regional RAP profiles indicate the presence of a deep
   moist layer, which should continue to support convection even in the
   presence of a surface stable layer. Given diffuse low-level forcing
   for ascent, storms are expected to remain cellular, though some
   clustering is apparent in short-term model guidance. In addition,
   with deep CAPE profiles and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates
   along with long, straight hodographs (effective bulk shear values of
   50-60 kts), large hail is expected to be the primary threat.
   Additionally, some gusty winds are possible with any clustering that
   occurs, though this is mitigated by the relatively moist profile.
   Short-term model guidance indicates storms will continue eastward
   across south Texas through the night before moving off the coast
   early in the morning.

   ..Supinie/Goss.. 03/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

Not good in Plymouth 

I guess that's technically a TORE?

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
803 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

OHC033-077-139-150015-
/O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-240315T0015Z/
Richland OH-Huron OH-Crawford OH-
803 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
RICHLAND...SOUTHERN HURON AND NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

At 802 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Plymouth, or 18 miles northeast of Bucyrus, moving east
at 40 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

The tornado will be near...
  Plymouth around 810 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Shenandoah, North Fairfield, Tiro, Olivesburg, and Greenwich.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. Take
immediate tornado precautions. This is an emergency situation.

&&

LAT...LON 4091 8284 4099 8286 4100 8283 4111 8283
      4112 8243 4099 8244 4099 8242 4086 8242
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 270DEG 34KT 4099 8273

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
555 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

TXC121-439-142330-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-240314T2330Z/
Denton TX-Tarrant TX-
555 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN DENTON AND NORTH CENTRAL TARRANT COUNTIES...

At 554 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Roanoke, or
over Trophy Club, moving northeast at 20 mph.

THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL.

HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured.
         Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs,
         siding, and vehicles.

This severe storm will be near...
  Flower Mound, Argyle, Double Oak, Northlake, Bartonville, and
  Corral City around 600 PM CDT.
  Denton and Copper Canyon around 605 PM CDT.
  Corinth around 615 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Westlake, Ponder, Dish, Lewisville Lake, Grapevine Lake, and Marshall
Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 9727 3295 9739 3327 9725 3307 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 213DEG 18KT 3303 9722

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

11 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Tornado possible in Findlay. I forgot how bad the radar coverage was there

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
703 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

OHC063-142315-
/O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240314T2315Z/
Hancock OH-
703 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL HANCOCK COUNTY...

At 703 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Vanlue, or 7
miles east of Findlay, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
east central Hancock County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4105 8342 4099 8342 4099 8346 4095 8346
      4095 8348 4093 8348 4096 8357 4106 8358
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 276DEG 38KT 4101 8349

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

Hurricane Otis report out from NHC.  Looks like they accepted the 205mph wind gust

No thanks.  Time for some sun and 60s/70s

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

^Dear lord…what month is it!?

Too bad no real instability 

Oh (9:41am LWX AFD morning update)

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Light rain east of the Blue Ridge continues through the morning,
with pockets of heavier showers and a few thunderstorms moving
through the Alleghenies, Potomac Highlands, and northern MD. The
leading edge of heavier showers/storms has started to move into
Garrett County, and will push south/east through the afternoon.
High temperatures today reach the mid to upper 60s to perhaps
70 degrees. Winds also increase out of the south/southwest at 10
to 15 mph with gusts 25-35 mph this morning into midday.

The heaviest precipitation looks arrive later this afternoon and
into this evening (3-8pm) as the main cold front crosses the
region. While instability is expected to be low, generally
around 200-400 J/kg of MLCAPE, the forcing aloft from an
approaching upper trough and strong kinematics will likely
result in at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and
ahead of the front. A line of moderate to heavy showers, with
embedded thunderstorms, crosses the area this afternoon to early
evening. The strongest storms today are likely to produce gusts
of 45-55mph, and some could possibly gust up to 60mph. There is
a non-zero threat for a tornado or two given the strong shear,
with current RAP analysis indicating 35-50KT of 0-1km shear, and
around 50-60KT of bulk shear. Instability is going to be the
main limiting factor, though it won`t take much to get some
storms going given the strong forcing/shear. SPC has expanded
the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms to most of
the CWA through this evening.

Also, from yesterday afternoon AFD from LWX 

Warmer air arrives on Tuesday with a warm front feature knocking on
the Mid-Atlantic`s doorstep. Precipitation chances increase Tuesday
through Thursday with Tuesday likely being the least impactful
locally. A trailing low pressure system center across the northern
Great Plains will begin moving further east throughout the middle
portion of the week. Some signals in the ensembles and machine-
learning guidance hints at the potential for some severe weather in
the form of damaging winds for the mid-week system. Locally, the
best chances would be if the trough becomes negatively tilted as it
approaches the Mid-Atlantic. There is still considerable uncertainty
with this system with respect to potential impacts. We will continue
to monitor this. In other news, high temperatures on Tuesday and
Wednesday will mainly be in the 60s for most areas with even 70
degrees being possible in some areas on Wednesday. Winds will also
be gusty Tuesday to Thursday with southeasterly winds gusting 15 to
25 knots at times, especially in the afternoon and early evening
hours.

Hmmm

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0333 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

   Valid 251200Z - 011200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range models continue to show a powerful mid- to upper-level
   trough ejecting into the central U.S. by late Tuesday into
   Wednesday.  A deep cyclone is currently progged by most ensemble
   members to move from the central Great Plains into the Great Lakes
   vicinity.  Preceding this upper trough, an antecedent re-charging of
   steep lapse rates associated with an elevated mixed layer over the
   southern High Plains is forecast.  A few days of airmass
   modification, both in terms of ambient temperature and moistening
   over the Gulf Basin, will occur in wake of frontal passage on
   Saturday.  Northward moisture return beneath the aforementioned EML
   will probably result in a substantial warm sector by late afternoon
   Tuesday and into Wednesday farther east.  Model run-to-run
   continuity is such that there is increased confidence in the
   introduction of 15-percent severe-risk highlights with the expected
   eastward progression of the trough.  Will defer the possibility of
   an additional area farther east on Thursday until confidence in
   details related to earlier days becomes more focused.

   ..Smith.. 02/22/2024